Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 23 6 tweets 3 min read
1) So many times in this #pandemic, people have held out hope that the end may be near, only for those hopes to be dashed. Think of how many times Premier François Legault has said he could see the light at the end of the tunnel (“On voit enfin la lumière au bout du tunnel”).
2) But in this short thread, please let me indulge in a sliver of hope. At least for one day. First, 39% of Quebec’s population above the age of 5 has received a third vaccine dose — up from 17% on Jan. 1. So for those who are vaccine hesitant, I plead for you to get your shot.
3) We know that the number of #COVID cases is not a reliable indicator because Quebec is no longer testing adequately for the #coronavirus. A better indicator are ICU stays, which have dipped to a net 273 from 286 a week ago.
4) More accurate still in gauging the severity of the 5th wave is the number of daily #COVID deaths. On that score, the latest mortality wave is still higher than the one last January. But there are faint signs this wave may be plateauing. Please consult the chart below.
5) Clearly, it’s far too early to claim, “Mission Accomplished,” à la George W. in 2003. The trend seems to be going in the right direction. But at the same time, Quebec hasn’t yet assessed the impact from the reopening of schools under highly questionable conditions.
6) No, I have not drunk the Kool-Aid. I’m merely highlighting the paramount importance of vaccination in this 5th wave. End of thread. My Twitter comparison between Quebec and the #COVID free-for-all of Florida will come later this afternoon.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Jan 25
1) One success story in the #pandemic in Quebec that's not getting much attention by the news media are dental clinics. To my knowledge, there has been only one #COVID outbreak in a dental clinic. What is the secret of the dental clinics and how could this be applied elsewhere? Image
2) Dental clinics in Quebec have been required by the Health Ministry since May 2020 to improve the ventilation in their facilities. Dentists wear N95 masks, face shields and clinics use portable air purifiers with HEPA filters. Image
3) My dentist, Peter Weinstein (who graduated at the top of his class at McGill University’s dentistry school), uses not one but 2 air purifiers in the small confines of his dental suite. He told me today — as he replaced one of my crowns — he hasn’t had a single #COVID outbreak. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 24
1) Since the pandemic's start, Florida’s cumulative death toll has surged to 290 per 100,000 population — likely an undercount because the state is likely suppressing data. Quebec’s cumulative rate stands at 146.7 per 100,000. In this thread, I will compare the two jurisdictions.
2) Despite Florida’s much higher #COVID death toll, there are virtually no #pandemic restrictions in the state. As Josh Freed observed in his perceptive weekend column in the @mtlgazette, Florida feels like another planet, or a Cowboyland. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) COVID denialists and anti-vaxxers have seized on Freed’s column to argue that #pandemic restrictions don’t make sense and that we should let the #coronavirus rip through Quebec and other places. Forget that Florida’s death toll is at least twice as high as Quebec’s.
Read 15 tweets
Jan 23
1) Evidence is emerging that in addition to Quebec, other provinces are now resuming délestage, purposely ramping down clinical activities in the #pandemic so as to not overwhelm hospitals. In this thread, I'll try to assess the potential long-term impact of délestage in Canada.
2) During the first wave of the #pandemic, Quebec hospitals stopped screening for cancer. Promising clinical trials were halted. McGill University researchers attempted to quantify the potential impact of this form of délestage in Quebec and across Canada.
3) The researchers warned that “cancer care disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to 21,247…more cancer deaths in Canada in 2020 to 2030.” That’s likely an underestimate because that projection was made last year — before the latest resumption of délestage.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 22
1) Guy Lepage, host of Quebec’s most-watched TV talk show, hit the nail on the head Saturday when he tweeted it’s not the province’s #COVID hospitalizations that freak him out so much as the daily toll of deaths. In this thread, I'll explain why Lepage is right to think this way.
2) According to the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), “daily deaths (are) the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic.” No doubt COVID hospitalizations are an important metric, but high mortality underscores the truest threat level.
3) In the past couple of weeks, Premier François Legault has focused much of the public’s attention on #COVID hospitalizations, not deaths. When he has discussed deaths, he’s suggested Quebec’s “surmortalitè” might ultimately be lower than other provinces.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 21
1) On the day Quebec registered 98 new #COVID deaths — the highest since May 2020 — Premier François Legault appeared more interested in talking about the concept of excess deaths (surmortalité) while citing figures from last September. Why did he do this?
2) Before I return to the topic of surmortalité, I would like to draw your attention to what is now going on in the #pandemic in Quebec and the fact that this latest wave of deaths is poised to surpass the one last January. Please see the chart below.
3) The current mortality wave in Quebec looks to have started on Jan. 10. Quebec is compiling #COVID deaths the same way it has since the start of the #pandemic. Thus, the chart from last January (please see below) suggests the current wave is deadlier.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 20
1) Here's a brief Twitter thread before Quebec Premier François Legault holds a 2 p.m. news conference today on the #pandemic. Please view the chart below of last January's #COVID mortality wave in Quebec, prior to Omicron. 👇
2) Please note that for the purposes of this chart, the cumulative #COVID deaths start as of Jan. 10, 2021. At this point in time, vaccination efforts had started only weeks earlier in Quebec's long-term care centres.
3) Now review the chart below for the corresponding period this year. Note the daily #COVID deaths and cumulative total are higher. This comparison isn't intended to slam the effectiveness of vaccination. On the contrary, without the shots, the deaths would have been much higher.
Read 4 tweets

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