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Aaron Derfel Profile picture
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Jan 20 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1) Here's a brief Twitter thread before Quebec Premier François Legault holds a 2 p.m. news conference today on the #pandemic. Please view the chart below of last January's #COVID mortality wave in Quebec, prior to Omicron. 👇
2) Please note that for the purposes of this chart, the cumulative #COVID deaths start as of Jan. 10, 2021. At this point in time, vaccination efforts had started only weeks earlier in Quebec's long-term care centres.
3) Now review the chart below for the corresponding period this year. Note the daily #COVID deaths and cumulative total are higher. This comparison isn't intended to slam the effectiveness of vaccination. On the contrary, without the shots, the deaths would have been much higher.
4) What this year-over-year comparison underscores is not only the gravity of this perilous moment. It should dispel the myth once and for all that Omicron is mild. It also highlights the fragility of Quebec's health-care system, about which I will write more soon. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 21
1) On the day Quebec registered 98 new #COVID deaths — the highest since May 2020 — Premier François Legault appeared more interested in talking about the concept of excess deaths (surmortalité) while citing figures from last September. Why did he do this?
2) Before I return to the topic of surmortalité, I would like to draw your attention to what is now going on in the #pandemic in Quebec and the fact that this latest wave of deaths is poised to surpass the one last January. Please see the chart below. Image
3) The current mortality wave in Quebec looks to have started on Jan. 10. Quebec is compiling #COVID deaths the same way it has since the start of the #pandemic. Thus, the chart from last January (please see below) suggests the current wave is deadlier. Image
Read 13 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 20
1) There are signs daily #COVID deaths may be starting to subside in the U.S. Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be the case in Canada. And within Canada, it’s Quebec that's likely driving up the country’s wave of #pandemic deaths. In this thread, I will examine these trends.
2) The chart below by the Washington Post shows clearly that the latest seven-day average of #COVID deaths in Canada is still rising, with the latest rate being 0.32 deaths per 100,000 population or 3.2 per million inhabitants. Please see below.
3) In contrast, the U.S. seven-day rolling average of #COVID deaths may have peaked. To gain a better idea of this trend in the United States, it makes sense to look at the chart below compiled by Our World in Data. That international chart shows the U.S. drop more clearly.
Read 11 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 19
1) In the span of just one week, Quebec's gone from ranking third among industrialized jurisdictions in its seven-day average of #COVID deaths per 100,000 population to first — by far. In this thread, I will suggest this might reflect the collapse of the province’s health system.
2) Consider the following: some #COVID patients are being asked to carry oxygen tanks home for self-treatment, a story I broke last week. In at least one nursing home, there are so many COVID-positive patients it makes more sense to keep the negative ones isolated in their rooms.
3) The super-contagious #Omicron variant has resulted in 12,000 health workers on leave, down from 20,000 two weeks ago. But the 12,000 tally equals that of the #pandemic’s first wave and does not take into account tens of thousands of other workers absent for other reasons.
Read 12 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 17
1) On Sunday, out of the blue, Premier François Legault tweeted the latest ICU COVID numbers for Quebec and Ontario after insisting for days that making such comparisons was not fair. In this thread, I will try to explain why such an ICU comparison might actually favor Ontario.
2) At first glance, Legault’s tweet would appear to suggest Quebec is handling the 5th wave of the #pandemic much better than Ontario. “Number of COVID patients in intensive care: Quebec: 282 Ontario: 579,” Legault tweeted yesterday.
3) Almost immediately, Legault’s observation sent journalists scrambling to place the Premier’s tweet into context, pointing out correctly that Ontario’s population is a lot bigger, 14.7 million, while Quebec’s stands at 8.6 million.
Read 17 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 16
1) The wave of #pandemic deaths in Quebec is not only poised to rise higher in the coming days, but it may even surpass last January’s wave. In this thread, I will examine this baleful trend while explaining who is now dying from #COVID19 in the province.
2) First, today’s announcement of 96 COVID deaths is the highest to date in the Omicron-fuelled wave that started last month. The tally likely includes deaths not only from yesterday but previous days, too. These are people who died from #COVID and with COVID.
3) Quebec is using the same methodology in compiling #COVID deaths as it did last January. Thus, on the same date last year, Quebec declared 62 COVID deaths. Please review my chart below comparing the past five days with the corresponding period last year.
Read 29 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 14
1) Tragically, the wave of COVID deaths may be ramping up in Quebec. The province declared 68 deaths today from the day before, the biggest single-day increase since the start of the Omicron-fuelled resurgence. In this thread, I will examine this ominous trend.
2) In the past six weeks, the number of COVID deaths in Quebec jumped from 11,581 on Dec. 1 to 12,193 — an increase of 612. In just the past four days, the province has declared 227 deaths. So how does Quebec compare with its more populous neighbor, Ontario?
3) Ontario’s latest seven-day average stands at 30 COVID deaths. In contrast, Quebec’s most recent seven-day average is 46. Does this mean that Quebec is declaring its deaths more accurately than Ontario? I can’t answer that question.
Read 9 tweets

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