Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 24 16 tweets 6 min read
1) Since the pandemic's start, Florida’s cumulative death toll has surged to 290 per 100,000 population — likely an undercount because the state is likely suppressing data. Quebec’s cumulative rate stands at 146.7 per 100,000. In this thread, I will compare the two jurisdictions.
2) Despite Florida’s much higher #COVID death toll, there are virtually no #pandemic restrictions in the state. As Josh Freed observed in his perceptive weekend column in the @mtlgazette, Florida feels like another planet, or a Cowboyland. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) COVID denialists and anti-vaxxers have seized on Freed’s column to argue that #pandemic restrictions don’t make sense and that we should let the #coronavirus rip through Quebec and other places. Forget that Florida’s death toll is at least twice as high as Quebec’s.
4) Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, has issued a steady stream of anti-scientific statements that are clearly politically motivated to shore up his base during the #pandemic. In April 2021, YouTube pulled one of his videos for urging no masks for children.
5) Apart from political aspirations, there may be another reason why DeSantis can afford to let #COVID rip through the Sunshine State. Florida’s hospital infrastructure is comparatively in better shape than Quebec’s. Please let me explain.
6) Florida’s hospital network is mostly private-for-profit, unlike Quebec’s single-payer universal system. Forbes magazine reported on Feb. 5, 2020, that profits for Florida HMOs (health maintenance organizations) jumped by 12% in 2018. See the article below.
7) As any U.S. frustrated doctor or anxious patient who has dealt with an HMO will tell you, there are plenty of exclusions in health coverage. That’s how HMOs make lots of money. They don’t have to accept every patient, as Canada and Quebec do.
8) It’s a question of two sets of values: one for a system that is profit-driven versus another that is based on common decency and fairness — no matter one’s income. But maintaining a public health system is a lot more difficult and expensive during a #pandemic.
9) Still, the chart below shows that the #pandemic is nonetheless weighing heavily on Florida, too. More than 86% of the state’s intensive-care unit beds are now being occupied by #COVID and non-COVID patients. How does that compare with the ICU occupancy rate in Quebec?
10) Premier François Legault has described the hospital situation in Quebec as “tight.” The Health Ministry has disclosed COVID-patient intensive care numbers but not the overall ICU occupancy rate, as it does with the province’s emergency rooms.
11) In the absence of overall ICU occupancy stats from the government, I had choice but to quiz Dr. François Marquis, the devoted chief of the intensive-care unit at Maisonneuve-Rosemont Hospital, just east of Olympic Stadium. This is what he had to tell me Saturday:
12) “Over the last three weeks, my ICU has been at over 100 per cent occupancy,” Marquis responded. “It’s very rare that it’s at or near 100%.” Marquis added that he’s pretty sure that the overall ICU occupancy rate in the greater Montreal region is at 100%.
13) If true, this would explain why Legault is so concerned about protecting Quebec’s public health system during the 5th wave, and why DeSantis may be able to afford letting it rip through Florida’s profit-driven hospital network. DeSantis still has some slack. Legault doesn't.
14) Again, it’s about the values we hold dear as a society. Do we want to care for our poor and vulnerable? Do we want to respect common decency and science? Or do we want to pursue the free-for-all in the Sunshine State? End of thread. Stay safe, everyone.
ADDENDUM: Didn't expect it this fast, but my Twitter thread has unleashed the fury of anonymous trolls tonight.
ADDENDUM TWO: On #COVID death numbers suppression in Florida, please click on this link, not that this will change the minds of any troll. climate.law.columbia.edu/content/covid-… And another link: climate.law.columbia.edu/content/covid-…

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Jan 25
1) One success story in the #pandemic in Quebec that's not getting much attention by the news media are dental clinics. To my knowledge, there has been only one #COVID outbreak in a dental clinic. What is the secret of the dental clinics and how could this be applied elsewhere? Image
2) Dental clinics in Quebec have been required by the Health Ministry since May 2020 to improve the ventilation in their facilities. Dentists wear N95 masks, face shields and clinics use portable air purifiers with HEPA filters. Image
3) My dentist, Peter Weinstein (who graduated at the top of his class at McGill University’s dentistry school), uses not one but 2 air purifiers in the small confines of his dental suite. He told me today — as he replaced one of my crowns — he hasn’t had a single #COVID outbreak. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 23
1) So many times in this #pandemic, people have held out hope that the end may be near, only for those hopes to be dashed. Think of how many times Premier François Legault has said he could see the light at the end of the tunnel (“On voit enfin la lumière au bout du tunnel”).
2) But in this short thread, please let me indulge in a sliver of hope. At least for one day. First, 39% of Quebec’s population above the age of 5 has received a third vaccine dose — up from 17% on Jan. 1. So for those who are vaccine hesitant, I plead for you to get your shot.
3) We know that the number of #COVID cases is not a reliable indicator because Quebec is no longer testing adequately for the #coronavirus. A better indicator are ICU stays, which have dipped to a net 273 from 286 a week ago.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 23
1) Evidence is emerging that in addition to Quebec, other provinces are now resuming délestage, purposely ramping down clinical activities in the #pandemic so as to not overwhelm hospitals. In this thread, I'll try to assess the potential long-term impact of délestage in Canada.
2) During the first wave of the #pandemic, Quebec hospitals stopped screening for cancer. Promising clinical trials were halted. McGill University researchers attempted to quantify the potential impact of this form of délestage in Quebec and across Canada.
3) The researchers warned that “cancer care disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to 21,247…more cancer deaths in Canada in 2020 to 2030.” That’s likely an underestimate because that projection was made last year — before the latest resumption of délestage.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 22
1) Guy Lepage, host of Quebec’s most-watched TV talk show, hit the nail on the head Saturday when he tweeted it’s not the province’s #COVID hospitalizations that freak him out so much as the daily toll of deaths. In this thread, I'll explain why Lepage is right to think this way.
2) According to the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), “daily deaths (are) the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic.” No doubt COVID hospitalizations are an important metric, but high mortality underscores the truest threat level.
3) In the past couple of weeks, Premier François Legault has focused much of the public’s attention on #COVID hospitalizations, not deaths. When he has discussed deaths, he’s suggested Quebec’s “surmortalitè” might ultimately be lower than other provinces.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 21
1) On the day Quebec registered 98 new #COVID deaths — the highest since May 2020 — Premier François Legault appeared more interested in talking about the concept of excess deaths (surmortalité) while citing figures from last September. Why did he do this?
2) Before I return to the topic of surmortalité, I would like to draw your attention to what is now going on in the #pandemic in Quebec and the fact that this latest wave of deaths is poised to surpass the one last January. Please see the chart below.
3) The current mortality wave in Quebec looks to have started on Jan. 10. Quebec is compiling #COVID deaths the same way it has since the start of the #pandemic. Thus, the chart from last January (please see below) suggests the current wave is deadlier.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 20
1) Here's a brief Twitter thread before Quebec Premier François Legault holds a 2 p.m. news conference today on the #pandemic. Please view the chart below of last January's #COVID mortality wave in Quebec, prior to Omicron. 👇
2) Please note that for the purposes of this chart, the cumulative #COVID deaths start as of Jan. 10, 2021. At this point in time, vaccination efforts had started only weeks earlier in Quebec's long-term care centres.
3) Now review the chart below for the corresponding period this year. Note the daily #COVID deaths and cumulative total are higher. This comparison isn't intended to slam the effectiveness of vaccination. On the contrary, without the shots, the deaths would have been much higher.
Read 4 tweets

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