1) Guy Lepage, host of Quebec’s most-watched TV talk show, hit the nail on the head Saturday when he tweeted it’s not the province’s #COVID hospitalizations that freak him out so much as the daily toll of deaths. In this thread, I'll explain why Lepage is right to think this way. 
2) According to the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), “daily deaths (are) the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic.” No doubt COVID hospitalizations are an important metric, but high mortality underscores the truest threat level.
3) In the past couple of weeks, Premier François Legault has focused much of the public’s attention on #COVID hospitalizations, not deaths. When he has discussed deaths, he’s suggested Quebec’s “surmortalitè” might ultimately be lower than other provinces.
4) Unfortunately, what this does is deflect attention from the heart-stopping seriousness of the current wave of #COVID deaths in Quebec. Please consult the chart below that suggests that this wave of death is thus far more intense than the one last January.
5) As I wrote in a 29-tweet thread last Saturday, most Quebecers dying from #COVID in this 5th wave are people in their 80s and 90s who are likely living alone, shut-ins, who may have received their third vaccine dose too late.
https://twitter.com/Aaron_Derfel/status/1482532238331990017
6) At the risk of enraging the Premier’s defenders, I would like to draw your attention to Quebec’s latest seven-day average of #COVID deaths per million population. It has surged to 8.5 from 3.3 on Jan. 11, outpacing other industrialized jurisdictions. See the INSPQ chart below.
7) I can foresee a flood of tweets now from people insisting that Quebec’s method of declaring #COVID deaths is arguably the best in the world, and when one ultimately factors in excess deaths or "surmortalité," the province's #pandemic death toll will plummet among nations.
8) I wrote a Twitter thread on surmortalité but scrapped it because I don’t think it’s wise to go down that rabbit hole of distraction. Suffice it to say calculating excess death varies, too, from country to country. The INSPQ comparison, as flawed as it may be, is still helpful.
9) There’s another reason to focus on #COVID mortality during Quebec's #Omicron wave. On Dec. 30, South Africa declared its Omicron wave had already peaked. More than three weeks later, however, the country is still declaring plenty of #COVID deaths. Please see the chart below.
10) Without question, tracking #COVID hospitalizations makes a lot of sense, especially in the context of a collapsed health system, as I wrote about yesterday. But to avoid talking about deaths risks conveying a false sense of security. End of thread. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
11) ADDENDUM: Stay tuned for my #COVID Twitter thread tomorrow, when I will be comparing what’s going on in Quebec with the free-for-all in the Sunshine state of Florida. As always, that new thread will contain lots of pertinent stats.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
