Since 1945 until today, U.S. soldiers have been stationed in Germany to deter a Soviet threat and now a Russian threat. I don't recall German leaders describing these deployments as "too provocative" to Moscow. But I'm not an expert on German history. I'm probably wrong. 1/
Imagine, if during the Berlin blockade in 1948, Truman had said, 'better not send any planes; Moscow might think it too provocative?' (Remember, in 1948, West Germany was not a formal ally.) 2/
The Berlin blockade analogy is an instructive one. Think of the counterfactual. Had we not responded and let the Soviets take the city, would Moscow have then stopped threatening West Germany or other parts of Europe? Of course not. 3/
Putin's annexation of Crimea has not stopped him from continuing to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty. No NATO freeze or imposed neutrality on Ukraine will stop him either. 4/
As Ive written before, "In the global struggle between democracy and dictatorship, and the fight for a peaceful Europe, Ukraine is on the front lines — not unlike West Germany during the Cold War." washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/… 5/ END
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"But what if Putin really wants to talk about European security? If so, U.S., Canadian and European leaders should embrace the opportunity." 1/ THREAD
Some of the great pillars of European security of the past — the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, the Vienna Document, the Paris Charter, the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for Ukraine and 2/
"the Helsinki Final Act — are either now defunct or no longer serving their originally intended purposes.
Many of the demands in the draft treaties now floated by Putin, however are nonstarters and violate agreements Moscow signed before." 3/
My colleagues were not short of words to describe this summit today & this is probably no bad thing. I too used the term ‘historic’ to describe it, referring to the long way we have come...& entering the period of productive construction that the start of this decade ushered in."
"Now we are starting to build up our cooperation, and so I would agree overall that this is indeed an important stage in building a full and productive partnership between Russia and NATO." 2/
"Incidentally, even the declaration approved at the end of our talks states that we seek to develop a strategic partnership. This is not a chance choice of words, but signals that we have succeeded in putting the difficult period in our relations behind us now." 3/
The abstract theoretical discussion among academics on the merits of a guarantee to not expand NATO or not is completely divorced from American domestic politics. Biden would be absolutely pummelled by his domestic critics if he even hinted at such a concession. THREAD 1/
The Republican talking points on Biden foreign policy are already crystal clear -- "Biden is weak." That's the phrase, which will be repeated for 3 years. Weak on China. Weak on Afghanistan. & if Putin invades OR Biden gives concessions, "Weak on Russia." 2/
Reminds me of talk about missile defense limits in the New START Treaty. Some had theoretical discussions about the relationship between offensive and defensive strategic systems. But politically, everyone knew that any constraint on MD was a poison pill for the treaty. 3/
I remember writing foreign policy transition documents for our new Obama government. One can plan in isolation all you want. But other people and governments get a vote. 1/
The key to a successful foreign policy is not only what you aspire to do but how well you adjust your plans when, as mom likes to say, "shit happens." 2/
A year ago, Biden and team aspired to increase focus on China, reduce focus on the greater Middle East, and maintain the SQ on Russia. It was a good plan. Generally, I supported it. 3/
"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine, including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations..." 1/
"... and insisting that the United States formally join Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to reinvigorate the now moribund Normandy talks tasked with ending the war in eastern Ukraine." 2/
"Such an announcement would dispel the absurd Russian claim that Washington and Kyiv are scheming to restore Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbas by military force and..." 3/
Extraordinary statement by "President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö’s New Year’s Speech on 1 January 2022" presidentti.fi/en/speeches/pr… 1/ THREAD
Money line: "And let it be stated once again: Finland’s room to manoeuvre and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide." 2/
"NATO’s business is the so-called Open Door policy, the continuance of which has been repeatedly confirmed to Finland, also publicly." 3/