Thread by @M_Baranowski

🧵I’m both heartened and worried after just coming back from #Kyiv 🇺🇦, where @gmfus @ua_boell delegation, which I had a honor to lead, meet with key government officials, opposition, think tanks, and civil society. Here are few observations from the past days 👇

There is ZERO desire among Ukrainians to give in to Russian demands. They are determined and defiant. I don’t know what Putin is thinking, but the Ukrainian people are not going to accept a Moscow puppet government in Kyiv. If Putin’s decide to attack, Ukraine will make him pay.

Ukraine will fight, if need be. They don’t expect the West to do it for them - but they rightly expect help - both politically and when it comes to #weapons. Frustration with the #West in #Kyiv varies from moderate to extremely high.

Ukraine does need #weapons - the most important need is air and missile defense. #Patriot system would be most effective, though it’s understood why it would be difficult to field, unless it was operated by western forces. #Naval capabilities will also be important.

Full scale armed invasion is not the most probable scenario. Our interlocutors talked about Kazakhstan scenario with Russia’s V column taking advantage of domestic protests - scheduled for later this week. Other scenario include massive cyber attack, or hits energy infrastructure

If the military attack would come, it would most likely be timed for #Belarusian-Russian military exercises scheduled for February 10-20th.

Is 🇺🇦prepared? It’s hard to see hard evidence that the country is fully reading itself for the possible conflict. The 🇺🇦 army is certainly in much better condition than in 2014, but that said, I didn’t get the impression that the state as a whole is being put on a high alert.

The mix messages are confusing for the🇺🇦society - on one hand Sec #Blinken warns of incoming conflict, on the other the Ukrainian #President tries to calm things down. We were told that it’s in order not to start panic - but the mixed message results in lower preparedness.

#Putin made himself a hostage of his militaristic rhetoric. There is low expectation that the current diplomatic process will lead to a solution. It will take a while to figure out a way for Putin to climb down from his logic of escalation.

How should the #West deal with Russia? The best thinkers advised to show strength, unity and resolve. We can’t be scared of the escalation more than Putin - otherwise he will take advantage of that. Showing too much restraint will be provoke Putin’s further escalation.

What should #West do for 🇺🇦 Ukraine?
1) Have credible, severe economic sanctions on the table - including SWIFT and cuts in servicing Russia’s foreign debt.
2) Stay #UNITED - don’t fracture under Putin’s pressure 3) Help Ukraine with weapons, reconnaissance, and information.