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Jon Worth

@jonworth

Jan 27

@DavidHerdson

So thanks to excellent feedback from @DavidHerdson @leonardocarella @tomwalkr @EuropeanRover there is now a new version of the Does Johnson Survive? Diagram - version 2.0.0

What's changed?

Essentially, on reflection, it strikes me as implausible that there cannot be something new when the report comes out - either *in* the report, or through some further leak

And version 1.0.0 of the diagram did not cover that adequately

Diagram re-worked on that

Some additional thinking about how the 54 MPs might be composed helped here too

As ever: thoughtful feedback is *so very welcome* - it helps these diagrams improve!

Read 5 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

Jan 27

OK

🥁

It's the one you've been waiting for!

The Does Johnson Survive? Diagram, version 1.0.0

@alexwickham

After @alexwickham tweeted out a basic Johnson diagram earlier, it seemed like a good opportunity to apply some Brexit Diagram logic to this problem...

Headline numbers:

Chances 54 letters reached early Feb
50%

Chances leadership election starts early Feb
37%

Chances Johnson stays on a bit longer - at least until the Met Police concludes its investigation
63%

And yes, as every, diagrams like this cannot tell you everything. I cannot begin to predict what the Met Police will say, or when it will conclude

Read 7 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

Jan 24

As part of something else I'm working on, I discovered you could - by my estimations - run a Tallinn-Riga-Kaunas/Vilnius train with a timetable of about 10 hours on current infrastructure

Would route as highlighted in red

Sure, 10 hours is not great, but that's how long the bus also takes for this route!

Plus it would serve
🇪🇪 Tallinn (1st city), Tartu (2nd city)
🇱🇻 Riga (1st city), Jelgava (4th city)
🇱🇹 Vilnius (1st city), Kaunas (2nd city), Šiauliai (4th city)

You would have to reverse the train once - in Kaunas

The downside, environmentally, is you would have to use a diesel locomotive - a TEP70

Pic source: flickr.com/photos/6925841…

Read 6 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

Jan 21

I have a slightly strange question

Who are the best public intellectuals in the area of greening our transport systems in Europe?

Please tweet me your best names, and I will explain why I need them in the thread

The question comes from a demoralising conversation I had today with an EU official about the best means to decarbonise transport

The official in question is a clever person, but had no intellectual framework into which he could fit policy decisions

@MLiebreich

It strikes me that on energy transition there are some people like @MLiebreich who play this role. In the way we green our cities there are people like @BrentToderian or @_dmoser. At a national level @kkklawitter is doing excellent work, but with focus on Germany

Read 7 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

Jan 21

That pic of truck queues at Dover on Google...

Yes, there is a queue

But Satellite layer on regular Google Maps doesn't give a date

But Google Earth does - link will take you there 👇
earth.google.com/web/@51.109472…

Answer: it's from 30.3.2021 *or newer*, but not necessarily now

So you *can* say "You can see Brexit related truck queues from space"

You cannot say "The truck queues this week at Dover have started to show up on Google!" because the queue shown is probably some earlier one, not the one this week

Also I had a quick look for any particular disruption around 30.3.2021 and can find nothing except an accident (that would have not caused queues with this pattern). So when this queue happened: no idea. I don't think it can be worked out.

Read 5 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

Jan 20

After Wednesday morning (when it looked like Johnson might be toppled) we reached Wednesday evening (Johnson had survived to live another day)

Let's look at how he survived, and try to apply a little logic to what happens next

A 🧵

Johnson's defence generally yesterday at #PMQs was two-fold

1️⃣ Spin the line of plausible deniability (he did not know parties were parties)

2️⃣ Wait until Sue Gray's report comes out next week before making any judgment

And that line will now hold until next week

So that leads us to the next question: how tough is Gray's report going to be? There are 3 options

1️⃣ It's a WHITEWASH - it confirms less than we know from the press already

2️⃣ It's a CONFIRMATION of what we know already

3️⃣ It digs up NEW INFORMATION we've not yet seen

Read 15 tweets

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