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Jan 27 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
OK

🥁

It's the one you've been waiting for!

The Does Johnson Survive? Diagram, version 1.0.0
After @alexwickham tweeted out a basic Johnson diagram earlier, it seemed like a good opportunity to apply some Brexit Diagram logic to this problem...

Headline numbers:

Chances 54 letters reached early Feb
50%

Chances leadership election starts early Feb
37%
Chances Johnson stays on a bit longer - at least until the Met Police concludes its investigation
63%

And yes, as every, diagrams like this cannot tell you everything. I cannot begin to predict what the Met Police will say, or when it will conclude
Likewise what does Labour do if Johnson narrowly survives a no confidence vote within the Tory Party? Try to end his premiership, or leave him sitting there like a lame duck?

Impossible to say, but at least I know where that fits in the process
As ever, reasoned feedback is welcome - along the lines of "that probability ought to be different" or "you're missing a connection there"

Reactions along the lines of "you're wrong" will be ignored. Download the XML and make your own diagram
High res PNG and PDF files, the XML, and ODS files for the calculations are here:
jonworth.eu/downloads/does…

Everything is CC Licensed - not for profit re-use is fine. If you want it for commercial use contact me.

/ends
Meanwhile there is a slightly updated version 2.0.0!

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More from @jonworth

Jon Worth Profile picture
Jan 27
So thanks to excellent feedback from @DavidHerdson @leonardocarella @tomwalkr @EuropeanRover there is now a new version of the Does Johnson Survive? Diagram - version 2.0.0
What's changed?

Essentially, on reflection, it strikes me as implausible that there cannot be something new when the report comes out - either *in* the report, or through some further leak

And version 1.0.0 of the diagram did not cover that adequately

Diagram re-worked on that
Some additional thinking about how the 54 MPs might be composed helped here too

As ever: thoughtful feedback is *so very welcome* - it helps these diagrams improve!
Read 5 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
Jan 25
"Welkom on bord zis Deusche Bahn InterCityExpress Servisss to... errr... Leuven!"

"Today we will be stopping in Torhout, Izegem, Ingelmunster and Gent St Pieters!"
(Something has gone totally wrong with the way @DB_Bahn lists Belgian trains in its timetable today. I found the problem when booking earlier, and then @trassenfinder found the regional train listed as a ICE! Fingers crossed this is fixed soon!)
We've also meanwhile discovered a new Kortrijk-Leuven ICE line. Gent and Leuven are really the beneficiaries of this new timetable (error)!
Read 4 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
Jan 24
As part of something else I'm working on, I discovered you could - by my estimations - run a Tallinn-Riga-Kaunas/Vilnius train with a timetable of about 10 hours on current infrastructure

Would route as highlighted in red Image
Sure, 10 hours is not great, but that's how long the bus also takes for this route!

Plus it would serve
🇪🇪 Tallinn (1st city), Tartu (2nd city)
🇱🇻 Riga (1st city), Jelgava (4th city)
🇱🇹 Vilnius (1st city), Kaunas (2nd city), Šiauliai (4th city)
You would have to reverse the train once - in Kaunas

The downside, environmentally, is you would have to use a diesel locomotive - a TEP70

Pic source: flickr.com/photos/6925841… Image
Read 6 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
Jan 21
I have a slightly strange question

Who are the best public intellectuals in the area of greening our transport systems in Europe?

Please tweet me your best names, and I will explain why I need them in the thread
The question comes from a demoralising conversation I had today with an EU official about the best means to decarbonise transport

The official in question is a clever person, but had no intellectual framework into which he could fit policy decisions
It strikes me that on energy transition there are some people like @MLiebreich who play this role. In the way we green our cities there are people like @BrentToderian or @_dmoser. At a national level @kkklawitter is doing excellent work, but with focus on Germany
Read 7 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
Jan 21
That pic of truck queues at Dover on Google...

Yes, there is a queue

But Satellite layer on regular Google Maps doesn't give a date

But Google Earth does - link will take you there 👇
earth.google.com/web/@51.109472…

Answer: it's from 30.3.2021 *or newer*, but not necessarily now
So you *can* say "You can see Brexit related truck queues from space"

You cannot say "The truck queues this week at Dover have started to show up on Google!" because the queue shown is probably some earlier one, not the one this week
Also I had a quick look for any particular disruption around 30.3.2021 and can find nothing except an accident (that would have not caused queues with this pattern). So when this queue happened: no idea. I don't think it can be worked out.
Read 5 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
Jan 20
After Wednesday morning (when it looked like Johnson might be toppled) we reached Wednesday evening (Johnson had survived to live another day)

Let's look at how he survived, and try to apply a little logic to what happens next

A 🧵
Johnson's defence generally yesterday at #PMQs was two-fold

1️⃣ Spin the line of plausible deniability (he did not know parties were parties)

2️⃣ Wait until Sue Gray's report comes out next week before making any judgment

And that line will now hold until next week
So that leads us to the next question: how tough is Gray's report going to be? There are 3 options

1️⃣ It's a WHITEWASH - it confirms less than we know from the press already

2️⃣ It's a CONFIRMATION of what we know already

3️⃣ It digs up NEW INFORMATION we've not yet seen
Read 15 tweets

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