jeevan patwa Profile picture
Jan 26 4 tweets 1 min read
#IBullreal results have no significance at this point. Key points to understand –

Debt reduction – Ibulllreal will be debt free at the time of merger with 650 cr coming from Mr Gehlot and 580 crs from land sale to Elan group. Embassy will have 3000 crs debt out of which 1500 cr
will be reduced through QIP and rest 1500 crs will come from collections next year. So merged entity will be zero debt company in FY23

Sales potential – Launched + planned projects have 18000 cr sales potential with 3400 crs of near completed inventory. Pending cost is 3900 cr
and sold receivables is 4224 crs. That means 9900 crs of cashflow to come in next few years from these projects. In addition, it is holding land bank of 3353 acres and 350 acres (42.5 Mn) for commercial development with potential annual rental of 4300 crs.
JV/JDA/DM potential – With solid track record and backing of institutional investors, Embassy can acquire multiple large value projects under JV/JDA/DM model which enhance its RoCE. One such project is Embassy Bayview in Juhu with net surplus of 500 crs (quite big)..

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More from @jeevanpatwa

Jan 27
Time to switch from FMCG to IT.. My bet is on #INFY

Around year back we discussed that “IT is new FMCG” and market actually recognized this and lot of IT companies trading at 50-60x. I feel one needs to be selective in IT. Not every ER&D is #TataElxsi.
#TataElxsi has its own quality. That’s where I called it CRADS (Contract Research and Development Services).

Cloud, Digital, Blockchain, AR/VR, Robotics, 3D Printing, IoT, AI, ML, Meta…complete transformation of how businesses work and consumers react. Mammoth opportunity
waiting in IT. It’s time to switch FMCG into IT. With flourishing e-com and online marketplace, value of distribution franchise is waning for FMCG. New brands are able to create market share with digital marketing and sales channel. Higher Ad spends, product development cost and
Read 9 tweets
Dec 29, 2021
#Lauruslabs Dr Chhava speaks about Care, Innovation and execution...Must watch



- CG is for benefit of ourselves and stakeholders
- Collegues, thier families, come first, shareholders come last in the list
- Mediclaim premium for CEO and chemist is same
- Customers and vendors both treated equally well
- Canteen is free for all, everyone including CEO and contract workers eat same food

- Dilution in early years was high due to the design of the company. It started as R&D company. Before hiring first person in mfg, R&D had 350
people. it lost 100 crs in first 4 yrs
- Tried to do products where we are strong at and not where neighbors are strong at. Believe in our strengh instead of playing at other weakness
- Overlap of R&D and mfg,done lot of process innovations
- same quality product for all region
Read 5 tweets
Nov 29, 2021
#Nifty EPS (Dec’19) = 563. Nifty was trading around 12000 (21x TTM PE) in Feb 20. After corona, it crashed to 7500. Assuming similar PE, market factored in 30%-40% EPS contraction for Dec’20. In reality, EPS contracted only 14% (Dec’20 EPS = 483)

Today if another corona wave
comes, we are much better prepared, lesser uncertainty and India is best placed among all the geographies. Last time, world assumed India would collapse given the size and population, but we did far better..

Nifty earnings have improved significantly in last year and
it gained momentum in last two qtrs where qtr eps is around 200... Dec 21 EPS estimate is 750

Even in worst case, IT, pharma (20% weight) will support earnings.. So Dec 22 EPS cannot be less than 850..

In best case, PE could be 25 & worse case 20.. So Nifty to remain between
Read 4 tweets
Nov 12, 2021
#Lauruslabs

There’s lot of confusion and concers around whats happening in Laurus and I thought of putting my view

There are two main concerns
1.RM costs – this is universal to all pharma companies, but eventually will get sorted
2.ARV sales – this seems the bigger concern.
Because of regimen change (Efavirenz to Dolutegravir) and 30-day to 90-day pack, governments are in process of clearing the inventory which caused sales to go down. This may continue for a quarter more, but Q4 looks good..

Some might feel, funding may divert to Covid.
Global funds are for 5 years, it is a must medicine, so I don’t think, funding can divert or stop

Some are drawing conclusions from Q2 Aurobindo ARV sales. Pls understand LL is last man standing being lowest cost producer. Even if the market shrinks, other players may opt out,
Read 6 tweets
Oct 6, 2021
There is no easy money in stock market

It’s really worrisome to know that many people are coming in the stock market for short term trading after this bull market rally. Came across many young minds who are ignoring their core competency and focusing on trading.
Don’t extrapolate post-corona market returns. This was aberration, abnormal, unusual. Its impossible to earn similar returns every year.

Focus on your core competency and career. Trading will ruin both your career and wealth

Music doesn’t last long. Invest in building your
core competencies like programming skills or engineering skills. That will only help you in long run

I am very bullish on India but trading is not the way to play the India growth story. Only Investing can create serious wealth in long run.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 4, 2021
#Ajmerarealty - project execution, faster land monetization and profit visibility can re-rate stock

MMR remains the best market for RE in India because of good demand, realisations and limited supply.

Ajmera realty has got 20 Mn sq ft development potential similar to Oberoi
This is fully owned and completely paid for as against Oberoi where part of it is under JDA and DM model.

Both are MMR focused players.

Oberoi generated 1650 cr projects revenue, 322 cr rentals in FY21. Ajmera will have similar P&L after 5 years with almost 1500 cr project
revenue and 300 cr rentals

MCap of Oberoi is 27500 cr wheras Ajmera is only 1250 crs.

Ajmera has 3 Mn sq ft resi and 3 Mn sq ft commercial in Wadala and 12.5 Mn sq ft in Kanjur marg. It is readying project pipeline to monetize current land bank and looking for more JDA and DM
Read 4 tweets

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