Yan Qin Profile picture
24 Oct, 19 tweets, 7 min read
On 24 October, China released Top-level design document in the '1+N' Carbon Peak and Neutrality policy framework.

On the eve of #COP26, and 1 year after China announced 2060 carbon neutral pledge, the implications of this landmark doc are HUGE:

🧵thread:
This doc is released by the Communist Party of China and General Office of the State Council:
gov.cn/zhengce/2021-1…

It is dated 22 September, and titled 'Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality'
This official policy document (the Opinions as above) is the 'top-level design' in China's '1+N' policy framework, i.e. the 1⃣

The N will be gradually released, consisting of Carbon peak action plan and detailed sectoral roadmaps

How important is the 1⃣+N?

China's new carbon neutrality top-level design document lays the roadmap for the country achieving carbon neutrality in all sectors and fields,

So, this will affect ALL OF 🇨🇳social-economic and energy policies in next 40 years.
Xinhua news summarized FIVE key targets in the Top-level design doc:

🍀Green Low carbon circular development economic system
🏭Enhance energy efficiency
☀️Increase non-fossil share
📉Reduce CO2 emissions' level
🌲Improve carbon sinks
The official English version of Top-level design document is available now:

'Working guidance for carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality in full and faithful implementation of the new development philosophy'

news.cn/english/2021-1…
The doc set out key climate targets, broadly in line with what's announced last Dec., 14th FYP etc.

2025: Energy intensity -13.5%, CO2 intensity -18%
2030: CO2 intens. -65% vs 2005, 25% non-fossil, Wind&Solar 1200GW

The >80% non-fossil share by 2060 is NEW
In addition to above, Top-level design also mentioned absolute emissions:
'establish a system to control the total volume of CO2 emissions'

Since China will peak CO2 emissions before 2030, it is inevitable to switching from current intensity targets to Cap
On fossil-fuel consumption, the Top-level design doc stressed:

'strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th Five-Year Plan period and phase it down in the 15th Five-Year Plan period, when petroleum consumption will reach its peak plateau'
Law on Carbon Neutrality is mentioned too in the doc.

China will 'conducting research on formulating a specific law on carbon neutrality'
It also has a separate point on Green Finance (which shall come as part of the N doc)

and low-carbon Fund:
'We need to carry out exploratory work on establishing a national fund for low-carbon transformation. '
China's new top-level design of Carbon Neutrality framework stressed carbon pricing and carbon market:

-Set up a rational binding mechanism for carbon pricing
-Accelerate national ETS
-Carbon sink trading will be incorporated into #CNETS

#OCTT
China's new carbon neutrality top-level document may also imply further acceleration in power sector reform, following the recent power tariff reform on 12 Oct.

'advance market-oriented reforms in the electric power sector across the board'
The final point in #carbonneutral top-level design lands on oversight:

'All local authorities must build targets for CO2 peaking and carbon neutrality and incorporate them into their comprehensive assessment systems for economic and social development '
Overall, this is the new blueprint for China's 2030/2060 climate pledges.

It sets:
1 Guiding Principle
5 Working guidelines
measures in 10 areas
31 key tasks

It will be followed by Carbon Peak Action Plan and a series of sectoral roadmaps
So, China finally released the official top-level design of carbon peak and neutrality framework.

This does not contain new NDC or targets, but the significance of this top-level design is that it is the guideline for all upcoming climate policies:
The top-level design document has already been distributed to provincial governments late September for further implementation, and officially released on 24 October.

Check out @RefinitivCarbon media release by our analysts in Beijing:
Will China's current energy crunch affect its climate commitments?

2030/2060 pledge is now written in the top-level design, so unlikely to be impacted.

BUT with policymakers having to prioritize energy security at the moment, near term target could be...
At 9 Oct national energy commission meeting, premier Li stated 'Deep research and analyze carbon peak stepwise timetables & roadmaps whilst considering recent contradictions in power/coal supply demand'

gov.cn/xinwen/2021-10…

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More from @YanQinyq

24 Oct
OFFICIAL: China just released the Top-level design of its carbon neutrality policy framework ‘1+N’
🎉🎉🎉

On 24 October, the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on carbon peak and neutrality

via Xinhua
China OFFICIALLY releases it top-level design in '1+N' Carbon peak and neutrality policy framework on 24 October.

reported CCTV in daily news Xinwenlianbo:
FULL TEXT of China's Top-level design of Carbon peak and neutrality policy framework.

It is officially released on 24 October, and the document is dated 22 September:
gov.cn/zhengce/2021-1…
Read 4 tweets
21 Apr
🔋China to boost Energy Storage above 30GW by 2025

🇨🇳 state planner NDRC released draft 'Guidelines on Speeding up New Types of Energy Storage (excl. pumped storage) Deployment'

That is tenfold increase in Battery Storage capacity from 2020 level of 3.3GW
The draft NDRC guideline states key targets:

2025: New Type of Energy Storage will evolve from initial commercial stage to large-scale deployment.

2030: Full market-based mechanism for Energy Storage 🔋, meeting needs in New Power System.
🇨🇳energy regulators pinned main measures to boost #EnergyStorage in draft guideline:

🔹Energy Storage sectoral Plan, with targets and key tasks in 14FYP and mid-long term
🔹🔋Technology progress
🔹Energy storage joins power market incl. capacity mechanism
Read 7 tweets
19 Apr
🎉Strong boost for Wind and Solar development in China.

🇨🇳energy regulator NEA aims to raise Wind & Solar generation's share in total power consumption to 11% in 2021 and 16.5% in 2025, from 9.7% in 2020.

This implies adding 100GW Wind&Solar per year. Image
China National Energy Administration released draft Notice on Wind and Solar Development in 2021 for consultation.

The overall objective is to 'achieve 2030 targets of 25% non-fossil share and 1200GW Wind and Solar capacity'

NEA: nea.gov.cn/2021-04/19/c_1… Image
How can China ensure the massive scale of Wind and Solar integrated into power system?

It is quite clear now that 'Provincial RE Quota Obligation' is the central mechanism to implement and facilitate RE integration, supplemented by Green Certificate etc. Image
Read 5 tweets
17 Mar
👇Power trading in China

🇨🇳energy regulator announced 5 new Spot trading pilots, adding to previous 8 pilots since 2017.

In 2020, 8 pilots have all tested full-month continuous settlement, and will start with longer period trial spot trading this year.
NDRC announced the expansion of spot trading pilots at spot market weekly work meeting on 9 March.

In addition to 5 new pilots, it also aim to build regional power markets in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Southern (led by Guangdong).

shoudian.bjx.com.cn/html/20210317/…
Total generating capacity in the 13 spot trading pilots will account for more than half of China's power fleet.

=1275 GW ( incl. 800 thermal, 150 wind, 130 solar)

That said, not all types of generators are allowed in the pilot spot trading.
Read 5 tweets
8 Mar
⚡️ China Nuclear power capacity Outlook:

2025: 70 GW, from draft 14th Five-Year plan

2030: 110 GW, China Nuclear Energy Association
2035: 180 GW, CNCC proposal
2050: 327 GW, Tsinghua ICCSD low carbon scenarios
🇨🇳Nuclear power plants locate mostly in coastal regions.

By Dec. 2020, there are 48 reactors with total operating capacity of 49.89 GW according to CEC.

Note some put capacity at 51 GW, depends on whether testing capacities are counted (I was told so...)
🇨🇳2021 Government Work Report states 'Safely and Orderly development of nuclear power', most positive tone in near 10 years...

China 14th FYP sets target of 70 GW nuclear capacity by 2025:
'Safely and steady development of coastal nuclear plants'
Read 12 tweets

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