I am analysing their growth numbers (for the main YouTube channels). Looks like: 1. Tips is growing subscribers at 15%, views at 25% cagr 2. Saregama is growing subscribers at 30%, views at 40% cagr
Can be part of reason for valuation differential.
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Mango music is growing subs at 15%, views at 25%. In fact this combo is most common among all the different labels.
T series stands out. Growing subs at 20%, views at 27% cagr. Despite being largest YT channel on earth.
Aditya music has been referenced by people multiple times.
Aditya music is growing subs & views at 65-80% cagr. Absolute monster growth happening here.
Ps: all the data is from the last month or so.
We have to see how this plays out over next few months, whether trends hold & to what extent they hold.
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My key takeaways 👇
Disclaimer: biased, i am adding today. 🙏
1. Revenue is only 933cr in this Q. 1 B$ sales in fy23 guidance is in tact
In b/w lines: you must have heard by now, the arv sales are down due to inventory stocking by laurus customers. Global customers like global fund did inventory stocking last year. So sale has been low
Expecting arv api sales to normalize to 400cr/Q level Q4 onwards
Why is 1B$ revenue 🎯 in tact ?
Coz capex is done. Formulation capacity will double in next 1-2 Q. Non arv biz is growing fast. Cdmo is up 60% YoY. Some other api division approvals got delayed.
Vaibhav global performance in Q3 has been quite disappointing. In addition to the poor 3% YoY growth, their revenue growth guidance for entire year has been reduced from 15-17% for FY22 to 10% for FY22. In addition the growth guidance for fy23 has been reduced to 13-15%.
Reason for exiting is 4 fold: 1. Valuations look too stretched for 13% growth specially given that margins will be under pressure as well due to investments in Germany operations.
2. Better opportunities exist not just from growth but quality of cashflow perspective.
Follow on question i am thinking about : t series, tips, saregama are all growing topline at 20-30% at least. Toh fir if industry is only growing 12-15% (saregama investor presentation) who is losing market share ?
With investors like @LuckyInvest_AK ashish Kacholia sir investing in it, let us look at one of the largest listed e-pharmacies & why I invested in it 8 months ago.
Get ready for a long 🧵. Focus on process.
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A 🧵🧵🧵 on SastaSundar ⤵️
Outline:
0. Disclaimers 1. Industry Structure & Tailwinds 2. Business Model 3. Growth 4. Profitability 5. Equity Dilution & Fund raising 6. Digital Scuttlebutt 7. Valuations 8. Anti-thesis
0. Disclaimer
Before I start, some disclaimers. My sole reason to share these threads is to share with everyone how I do my research. It is to demonstrate to the retail investor the various ways in which they can have an edge over institutions.