Sahil Sharma Profile picture
Jan 26 4 tweets 1 min read
#tips & #saregama

I am analysing their growth numbers (for the main YouTube channels). Looks like:
1. Tips is growing subscribers at 15%, views at 25% cagr
2. Saregama is growing subscribers at 30%, views at 40% cagr

Can be part of reason for valuation differential.

🙏
Mango music is growing subs at 15%, views at 25%. In fact this combo is most common among all the different labels.

T series stands out. Growing subs at 20%, views at 27% cagr. Despite being largest YT channel on earth.
Aditya music has been referenced by people multiple times.

Aditya music is growing subs & views at 65-80% cagr. Absolute monster growth happening here.
Ps: all the data is from the last month or so.

We have to see how this plays out over next few months, whether trends hold & to what extent they hold.

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More from @sahil_vi

Jan 28
Laurus labs concall happened right now.

Very interesting commentary from dr chava sir. 🐂

My key takeaways 👇
Disclaimer: biased, i am adding today. 🙏 Image
1. Revenue is only 933cr in this Q. 1 B$ sales in fy23 guidance is in tact

In b/w lines: you must have heard by now, the arv sales are down due to inventory stocking by laurus customers. Global customers like global fund did inventory stocking last year. So sale has been low Image
Expecting arv api sales to normalize to 400cr/Q level Q4 onwards
Why is 1B$ revenue 🎯 in tact ?

Coz capex is done. Formulation capacity will double in next 1-2 Q. Non arv biz is growing fast. Cdmo is up 60% YoY. Some other api division approvals got delayed.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 28
Vaibhav global performance in Q3 has been quite disappointing. In addition to the poor 3% YoY growth, their revenue growth guidance for entire year has been reduced from 15-17% for FY22 to 10% for FY22. In addition the growth guidance for fy23 has been reduced to 13-15%. Image
Reason for exiting is 4 fold:
1. Valuations look too stretched for 13% growth specially given that margins will be under pressure as well due to investments in Germany operations.
2. Better opportunities exist not just from growth but quality of cashflow perspective.

Evaluating: iifl finance, intellect design arena, schrodinger.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 26
How many music labels does India have total? All of them. Including smallest ones.

@badola_arjun @mehrotra_saket @Ankush__Agrawal @ishmohit1 @soicfinance
Follow on question i am thinking about : t series, tips, saregama are all growing topline at 20-30% at least. Toh fir if industry is only growing 12-15% (saregama investor presentation) who is losing market share ?
Read 4 tweets
Jan 25
FINALLY
the much awaited capital allocation.

Arrrrghh for not doing it before the concall. Would have loved to know when this will hit out P&L.

The p/e ratio just dropped by some % overnight due to this allocation.
All these amazing songs are not a part of saregama catalog.

I might just start nibbling at that LC

DISC : NOT investment advice. Do your own due diligence. I am invested.
6.8k videos on channel.
1.5k songs.
3.5 billion views.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 24
Anything wrong in nykaa ?

Why is Zomato falling ?

CHAL KYA RAHA HAI

Answer :
What the fed giveth, the fed taketh away. BAAP won't work

Guess what is NOT falling 7-8%? Your good ol school idfc first 🏦

Any guesses which portfolio stock is up 2% while smallcap index down 3%?
Look at how Sona is not Sona any more. Image
Saregama mei toh you won't even find any sellers. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 21
With investors like @LuckyInvest_AK ashish Kacholia sir investing in it, let us look at one of the largest listed e-pharmacies & why I invested in it 8 months ago.

Get ready for a long 🧵. Focus on process.

Please retweet if you find it useful.

A 🧵🧵🧵 on SastaSundar ⤵️
Outline:

0. Disclaimers
1. Industry Structure & Tailwinds
2. Business Model
3. Growth
4. Profitability
5. Equity Dilution & Fund raising
6. Digital Scuttlebutt
7. Valuations
8. Anti-thesis
0. Disclaimer
Before I start, some disclaimers. My sole reason to share these threads is to share with everyone how I do my research. It is to demonstrate to the retail investor the various ways in which they can have an edge over institutions.

Focus on the process.
Read 122 tweets

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