1. Fed gives a surprise. No rate hike this time. Most likely in March. That calls for a 'small' party. Especially in tech names.
IT took support and bounced somewhat from a very critical zone. Expect some decent pullback here now.

#Markets #Fed #FOMC
2. Rate sensitives like Autos and Real estate should now lead the rally.

If dollar index takes a beating now, you will see Steel and metals also making a strong come back. All in all, Risk is on for next few days.

Baki budget me Sita maiyya naye taxes bas na lagaye...

#FOMC
3. However, the issues for further pressure on the market remains. Once budget is out of the way, there is good possibility market again gets into decent pressure for sometime. Better to take profits in the upcoming rally...
4. Sit on cash or invest in gold (even gold loan companies may outperform - preferred pick Muthoot Finance).
Shifting to large caps and shunning most of SMID Caps would be my strategy till March end.
5. I would continue to hold decent chunks of IEX and CDSL/BSE through this correction phase. But other stocks would come under knife - to get trimmed or removed - if they don't perform as per expectations.

#Markets
US 10Y bond reaction is completely different from what I was expecting. I found Fed's statements to be quite balanced. Controlled aggression. But Bonds are telling a different narrative.
Any Bonds experts here . Any idea?
US 10Y yield Image

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More from @vivekthebaria

Jan 28
1. Why are FIIs selling Indian stocks so vigorously?

Well, a number of factors. It's actually a domino effect.

And it all begins with the same story…
The day FED decided to go hard on inflation. Image
2. In layman terms, FED regulates the flow of dollars in the world. For last many years, after the 2008 crisis, they have been printing dollars recklessly to help US Govt fund several economy stabilizing projects by buying US bonds.
3. US 10Y, 30Y bonds are basically a kind of internal debt that the govt raises to run its projects as it has been running into huge deficit for quite sometime. Image
Read 22 tweets
Jan 26
1. All options given are good depending upon trader's risk taking capacity.
By squaring off sold leg of your current call spread, delta of the strategy increases sharply. Risk is reversal of the stock leading to loss of profit in the long arm.
Maintain a tight SL in this case.
2. If the price action is such that it increases your conviction on the stock upmove, adding naked longs is like pyramiding. After all, if you can't capitalise on favorable moves, then when will you make money?
I prefer this with SL and regular profit taking on fresh longs.
3. Adding more of the same call spreads is a cheaper way to increase exposure to stocks' upmove. Many brokers block only the spread exposure and at times that could be lower than buying naked longs. Thus better use of margins and a natural SL due to hedging.
Con: Slow profit
Read 4 tweets
Jan 23
Market View 2022:
1. Over the next few months, a lot of macro developments would impact our economy and markets.
The biggest being Fed's relentless watch on American inflation. They are hinting at very sharp interest rate increases, then stopping asset purchases (QE) and then ..
2. ..reducing their balance sheet as well.
The impact would certainly be drying up of liquidity around the world.
Sudden spike in bond yields which is already in Play.
Sharp rise in Dollar strength.

And if done unabettedly, this will shake every market out there very badly.
3. Frankly, I never thought Fed would go on this crusade so soon and so hard.

So are we in for tough 2022?

Well, that depends on what you compare it with!

Compared to last 1.5 years, Yes, the going is going to get very tough.
Read 18 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
Why is Market getting tough?
Monetary tightening has begun around the world. Central banks pulling out liquidity and looking for increasing interest rates.
This essentially means that easy money is going out of the system. Out of markets. (1/n)
This is actually the reason why FIIs have been relentlessly selling Indian equities. Once the next many months, finding capital is going to get tougher. And so the markets could see those animal spirits missing going forth.
(2/n)
Fundamentally good companies and good valuations would be spared to some extent. Bad fundamentals and rich valuations would not be.
We will be seeing a lot of fake breakouts and suddenly the success ratio of technical set ups would go down. (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝑳𝒂𝒘 𝒐𝒇 𝑾𝒂𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝑬𝒇𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒕
𝑫𝒐 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒌𝒏𝒐𝒘 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒍𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝒐𝒏𝒍𝒚 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒏 𝒂 𝒒𝒖𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒊𝒓 𝒉𝒖𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒕𝒔 — 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒚 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍 𝒊𝒏 75% 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒊𝒓 𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒕𝒔... (1/n)
...a𝒏𝒅 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒆𝒅𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒏𝒍𝒚 25% 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒎.
𝑫𝒆𝒔𝒑𝒊𝒕𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒔𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒔𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒅 𝒃𝒚 𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒅𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒔, 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒚 𝒅𝒐𝒏'𝒕 𝒅𝒆𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒊𝒓 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒊𝒓 𝒑𝒖𝒓𝒔𝒖𝒊𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒉𝒖𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒕𝒔. (2/n)
𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒊𝒏 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒐𝒏 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒊𝒔 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒃𝒆𝒄𝒂𝒖𝒔𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒉𝒖𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒓 𝒂𝒔 𝒔𝒐𝒎𝒆 𝒎𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒏𝒌 𝒃𝒖𝒕 𝒊𝒕 𝒊𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 “𝑳𝒂𝒘 𝒐𝒇 𝑾𝒂𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝑬𝒇𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒕𝒔” 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒃𝒆𝒆𝒏 ... (3/n)
Read 9 tweets
Jun 27, 2021
Overwhelming response for the previous thread. However, I think people missed a crucial point there.
The calculation I have done is for staying profitable after taking a reasonable risk.

As humans, we don’t have the tendency to stop. Growth is life. And that is desired.

(1/n)
However, you first learn to crawl. And then walk. Then run.
If you are doing 25%+ p.a. on a consistent basis - atleast for 3 consecutive years, then you are free to explore higher horizon of returns. You have capital and skills, then target higher returns by all means. (2/n)
No one is going to stop you from doing that.
But how many twitter traders (or any trader for that matter) can truthfully claim that?
Half of them are low on capital and almost other half is low on skills. But all of us want to earn 50%+ p.a. (3/n)
Read 10 tweets

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