1. Why are FIIs selling Indian stocks so vigorously?

Well, a number of factors. It's actually a domino effect.

And it all begins with the same story…
The day FED decided to go hard on inflation. 2. In layman terms, FED regulates the flow of dollars in the world. For last many years, after the 2008 crisis, they have been printing dollars recklessly to help US Govt fund several economy stabilizing projects by buying US bonds.

1. Fed gives a surprise. No rate hike this time. Most likely in March. That calls for a 'small' party. Especially in tech names.
IT took support and bounced somewhat from a very critical zone. Expect some decent pullback here now.

#Markets #Fed #FOMC 2. Rate sensitives like Autos and Real estate should now lead the rally.

If dollar index takes a beating now, you will see Steel and metals also making a strong come back. All in all, Risk is on for next few days.

Baki budget me Sita maiyya naye taxes bas na lagaye...

#FOMC

1. All options given are good depending upon trader's risk taking capacity.
By squaring off sold leg of your current call spread, delta of the strategy increases sharply. Risk is reversal of the stock leading to loss of profit in the long arm.
Maintain a tight SL in this case.

https://twitter.com/vivekthebaria/status/1486052641100615680

2. If the price action is such that it increases your conviction on the stock upmove, adding naked longs is like pyramiding. After all, if you can't capitalise on favorable moves, then when will you make money?
I prefer this with SL and regular profit taking on fresh longs.

Market View 2022:
1. Over the next few months, a lot of macro developments would impact our economy and markets.
The biggest being Fed's relentless watch on American inflation. They are hinting at very sharp interest rate increases, then stopping asset purchases (QE) and then .. 2. ..reducing their balance sheet as well.
The impact would certainly be drying up of liquidity around the world.
Sudden spike in bond yields which is already in Play.
Sharp rise in Dollar strength.

And if done unabettedly, this will shake every market out there very badly.

Why is Market getting tough?
Monetary tightening has begun around the world. Central banks pulling out liquidity and looking for increasing interest rates.
This essentially means that easy money is going out of the system. Out of markets. (1/n) This is actually the reason why FIIs have been relentlessly selling Indian equities. Once the next many months, finding capital is going to get tougher. And so the markets could see those animal spirits missing going forth.
(2/n)

𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝑳𝒂𝒘 𝒐𝒇 𝑾𝒂𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝑬𝒇𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒕
𝑫𝒐 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒌𝒏𝒐𝒘 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒍𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝒐𝒏𝒍𝒚 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒏 𝒂 𝒒𝒖𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒊𝒓 𝒉𝒖𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒕𝒔 — 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒎𝒆𝒂𝒏𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒚 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍 𝒊𝒏 75% 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒊𝒓 𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒕𝒔... (1/n) ...a𝒏𝒅 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒆𝒅𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒏𝒍𝒚 25% 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒎.
𝑫𝒆𝒔𝒑𝒊𝒕𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝒔𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒔𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒅 𝒃𝒚 𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒅𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒔, 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒚 𝒅𝒐𝒏'𝒕 𝒅𝒆𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒊𝒓 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒊𝒓 𝒑𝒖𝒓𝒔𝒖𝒊𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒉𝒖𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒕𝒔. (2/n)

Overwhelming response for the previous thread. However, I think people missed a crucial point there.
The calculation I have done is for staying profitable after taking a reasonable risk.

As humans, we don’t have the tendency to stop. Growth is life. And that is desired.

(1/n) However, you first learn to crawl. And then walk. Then run.
If you are doing 25%+ p.a. on a consistent basis - atleast for 3 consecutive years, then you are free to explore higher horizon of returns. You have capital and skills, then target higher returns by all means. (2/n)

Making ₹5000 on a 10L account on weekly index expiries need 200 BankNifty points.
Do it with 4 lots and one just need to make 50 points per lot in a week - 10 points per lot per day.
52 Expiries in a year and without compounding you can make 26% on your capital in a year. Staying profitable is that simple.
But problem is we want to make 50,000 per week on 10L or 10,000 per week on 1L ... yes thats how disproportionate and illogical our expectations are about trading income.
(2/n)

#BPCL : Have been running strategies on BPCL since Mid March.
Stock has been quite volatile as the news around its divestment has been volatile. But since it was certain that govt would not be selling it cheap as this is one of the better managed PSUs .. (1/n) ... And there would be several transactions to make it's structure simpler for a prospective buyer to evaluate. That would mean selling off few subsidiaries which would bring in cash and that cash would be distributed to the share holders.
(2/n)

What can be a low capital, low risk, high reward strategy on ITC on the upside

And a low capital, low risk and high reward strategy on Adani Ent on the downside?

Can be a combination of Cash shares + F&O

Rollover allowed.

Share yours. Will share mine at the end. Capital reqd. 2.87L
Actual numbers may vary a bit, but the risk: reward would be simply mindblowing!

1. Straddle vs Triple Straddle: Is there a benefit?

Data says, yes. Small benefit but there is some benefit. Especially when it comes to sharp moves on one side (Gap UP/Down) - Triple straddle stands better than a single straddle. 2. Single straddle at 32200 for May 20 expiry : 6Lots
Triple straddles at 32200, 32600 and 31700 : 2 Lots each.

At the center there is not much diff between the two. Similar Greeks (Theta & Vega mainly)

But look at the payoff profile. Triple straddle provides a much ...

1. Trading a Rejection candle : One of the most enjoyable pattern to trade is a Rejection candle. I say enjoyable because it has a higher probability of success playing contrarian to the market. And who doesn't like to play contrarian and win.
#TheWittyOptionsClass 2. The typical setup is something like the one shown in the below chart:
A rejection candle appearing almost at day high, followed by a red candle is a high probability short.

1. Thread on CONDITIONAL BUY:
Purpose is to catch trending moves once it is confirmed.
Plot the most important support and resistance on the chart such that violating those levels will lead to a trending move in all likelihood.
#OptionsTrading #markets 2. Eg. Banknifty is at 36000. Support at 35500 and Resistance at 36500.

Place buy orders in the system such that 35500PE is bought if 35500 is violated.
36500CE is bought if 36500 is breached.

#OptionsTrading #markets

1. If you are reluctant to commit to any uptrend, (or for that matter even in a downtrend), yet, have to create a position, then consider bullish butterfly as your go to strategy.
Below is an example I have created for #bhartiairtel 2. Attached are the positions deployed:

1."Conditional Buy"
Aim is to capture theta on a day to day basis by selling straddles/strangles.
Instead of putting stops on the sold arms, close contracts are bought to convert naked arms into bull/bear debit spreads if the index is breaking away from a range.
#OptionsTrading 2. Sharing my strategy as I execute it. At around 9:30 AM, I would assess probable demand and supply zones on #banknifty chart. Breach of these zones would lead to quick price movements, which may or may not result in a trend.
#OptionsTrading

1. If there was any doubt about how important Options charts are.. today was the day that removed it.
Below is #BANKNIFTYFUTURE chart on 5-min time frame.
The first line of support for Banknifty futures was around 22130. It bounced off that zone multiple times yesterday. 2. Then today even after a gap up, the rally got sold into and took support around the same levels and bounced back.
However the fat 12:10 candle was the last attempt by bulls to breakout of the zone. But there was no followup and it was back again at 22130 levels.

1. #Banknifty Strategy : Here, I have created a weekly strategy which is high on time decay and has negative vega. Given vega has been falling off significantly in the past few days. Hoping the trend to continue. Bias is positive in weekly. 2. As the market rallied hard last week and used last hours of Thursday and whole of Friday to consolidate without giving up crucial zone of 21800 completely,there is a good likelihood of it attempting the recent highs again in the coming week.Thats an assumption I am working on.

Decent Week. Decent Gains. Sharing my #Banknifty strategy for learning purpose. The below positions and P&L are only for reference. Actual trades were done in my account, but would not share actual P&L Screenshots here. 2. What you see here is a Double Calendar Spread modified to follow trend of the market. If the market is non-trending and stays within 0.5 sigma (standard deviation), it gains due to positive #theta or time-decay. If the market is trending on one side, #gamma gets active.