Overwhelming response for the previous thread. However, I think people missed a crucial point there.
The calculation I have done is for staying profitable after taking a reasonable risk.
As humans, we don’t have the tendency to stop. Growth is life. And that is desired.
(1/n)
However, you first learn to crawl. And then walk. Then run.
If you are doing 25%+ p.a. on a consistent basis - atleast for 3 consecutive years, then you are free to explore higher horizon of returns. You have capital and skills, then target higher returns by all means. (2/n)
No one is going to stop you from doing that.
But how many twitter traders (or any trader for that matter) can truthfully claim that?
Half of them are low on capital and almost other half is low on skills. But all of us want to earn 50%+ p.a. (3/n)
Even with good skills and sufficient capital, you would falter because your expectations from each trade is too high for sustenance. Spread your expectations over many many trades and earn small returns from most of them without losing a lot in any one trade. (4/n)
You would be amazed at the cumulative impact of such small consistent returns over a longer period of time.
When you start your trading positions defensively, you have option to watch the market unfold peacefully.
If the market is not going as per your analysis/position, (5/n)
...you have a low risk position to manage.
However, if the market moves in your direction, add more of such low risk positions and make more than 2% in those times. Who stops you?
But if you start with a very big position to make an outsized return on all your trades... (6/n)
... - and market moves against you - and it would always, more often than not, move against you to take you out of your position - you would be losing a limb and a lot of courage.
(7/n)
Some saying but that can be achieved by putting the money in good mutual funds and some even ready to borrow at 24%-36% p.a. to show how meagre a 26% p.a. return is.
Yes, good MFs can give such returns over a long period of time but then you don't learn to fish on your own. (8/n)
If you have a good job or a business where you are good at - making good progress in life, then by all means focus on that and let your mutual funds handle your investment needs. But if you are in trading because you have a passion for it, then MF argument wouldn't suffice. (9/n)
Minimum desirable returns argument won't justify why do this and not that.
Those who can quietly do 26% p.a. consistently, would certainly do 50%+ p.a. someday.
And those ready to borrow at 24-36% p.a. - I have a suggestion for you, try cash from credit cards.
(10/10)
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Making ₹5000 on a 10L account on weekly index expiries need 200 BankNifty points.
Do it with 4 lots and one just need to make 50 points per lot in a week - 10 points per lot per day.
52 Expiries in a year and without compounding you can make 26% on your capital in a year.
Staying profitable is that simple.
But problem is we want to make 50,000 per week on 10L or 10,000 per week on 1L ... yes thats how disproportionate and illogical our expectations are about trading income.
(2/n)
Trading is a game against people who themselves are using their wit to make profits by outsmarting other people. I outsmart you to make a living and vice versa. And only the real smarts survive. We are not fulfilling any basic need that has room to grow as population grows (3/n)
#BPCL : Have been running strategies on BPCL since Mid March.
Stock has been quite volatile as the news around its divestment has been volatile. But since it was certain that govt would not be selling it cheap as this is one of the better managed PSUs .. (1/n)
... And there would be several transactions to make it's structure simpler for a prospective buyer to evaluate. That would mean selling off few subsidiaries which would bring in cash and that cash would be distributed to the share holders.
(2/n)
So, I bought 1800 shares of BPCL in March and pledged them to generate margins.
Using a part of those margins sold a call to make some monthly income till the plan plays out.
(3/n)
1. Straddle vs Triple Straddle: Is there a benefit?
Data says, yes. Small benefit but there is some benefit. Especially when it comes to sharp moves on one side (Gap UP/Down) - Triple straddle stands better than a single straddle.
2. Single straddle at 32200 for May 20 expiry : 6Lots
Triple straddles at 32200, 32600 and 31700 : 2 Lots each.
At the center there is not much diff between the two. Similar Greeks (Theta & Vega mainly)
But look at the payoff profile. Triple straddle provides a much ...
3. ...Distributed profile which means the payout at expiry is not concentrated at one single point like a single straddle, but is spread over a range. Something like a strangle.
Psychologically, that gives comfort during a little extra volatility in the markets, ...
1. Trading a Rejection candle : One of the most enjoyable pattern to trade is a Rejection candle. I say enjoyable because it has a higher probability of success playing contrarian to the market. And who doesn't like to play contrarian and win. #TheWittyOptionsClass
2. The typical setup is something like the one shown in the below chart:
A rejection candle appearing almost at day high, followed by a red candle is a high probability short.
3. Stoploss in such trade would be the high made on the rejection candle.
If Market comes back and takes away that stop, it would mean the market is not really in a mood to go down. Remember, I called it a High-probability short, and not a sureshot short. #TheWittyOptionsClass
1. Thread on CONDITIONAL BUY:
Purpose is to catch trending moves once it is confirmed.
Plot the most important support and resistance on the chart such that violating those levels will lead to a trending move in all likelihood. #OptionsTrading#markets
2. Eg. Banknifty is at 36000. Support at 35500 and Resistance at 36500.
Place buy orders in the system such that 35500PE is bought if 35500 is violated.
36500CE is bought if 36500 is breached.
3. What should be the limit price order for the two contracts (35500PE, 36500CE)?
Ideally, the price of an ATM contract should be same keeping everything else constant ( Days to expiry, volatility, interest rates etc.) #OptionsTrading#markets