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The Weekly Recap (12.06.23 ~ 16.06.23) 🧵

Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.

Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.

#MacroMonday #market
1. We kicked off the week with our CPI Preview, highlighting the importance of keeping an eye out for the #used cars and #shelter prints.

2. This was followed by an in-depth analysis of the #fiscal impulse. Overall, our assessment suggested that government #revenues continue to paint a picture of weak private sector conditions.

Read 9 tweets
The Weekly Recap (05.06.23 ~ 10.06.23) 🧵

Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.

Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
1. We started the week by sharing updates on the latest #construction data. Overall, we noted that residential construction spending improved recently, that also flowed into our GDP Nowcast and real GDP estimate.

2. Next, we provided an update on the latest readings from our Market Regime Monitor and the latest Prometheus Trend Signals.

Read 7 tweets
In webcast “Dust in the Crevices,” Jeffrey Gundlach shares his macro and market views and makes the case for an imminent dust-up, “in the next few years,” in Washington’s decades-long use of debt finance to skirt hard fiscal decisions.

#macro #markets #Fed #inflation #rates
“Here we are in an economy that is supposedly growing, and yet we have 7.3% budget deficit as a % of GDP,” DoubleLine CEO and founder Jeffrey Gundlach says.

That figure is probably headed much higher, especially if the U.S. enters recession. Image
In the wake of hikes of 525 bps in the fed funds rate and 400 bps along many parts of the Treasury curve, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach notes the burden of federal debt service has surged higher in dollar terms and as a percentage of GDP.

Watch: Image
Read 28 tweets
A recent post by John Authers @johnauthers raises some interesting questions about the US consumer market and #crypto industry. Let's look at some important points.
1/10 💵 Consumer discretionary stocks are outperforming staples, which is usually a sign of economic expansion. However, retail sales growth remains slow, causing some uncertainty. #Markets Image
2/10 📉 Surveys like those run by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board show that consumer expectations have waned since the start of the year. #ConsumerSentiment Image
Read 11 tweets
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents Total Return webcast "Dust in the Crevices" today at 1:15pm PT.

Stay tuned here for more.

#markets #macro #bonds Image
Jeffrey Gundlach: There is dust in the crevices of our financial institutions.

The debt ceiling has been raised 99 times since it started in 1913.

This method of getting along is getting pretty dusty.
Gundlach: U.S. Federal Budget Balance as a percentage of GDP on a rolling 1-year basis: We've been in a trend toward worse and worse budget deficits as a percentage of GDP.
Read 38 tweets
The Weekly Recap 🧵

Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.

Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
1. We started the week with discussing our view ahead for markets. Our systematic view is that we are headed towards a stagflationary recession.

2. Re 1, we further contextualised our view by sharing our systematic updates on inflation & growth.

Read 12 tweets
On Construction Data 🧵🏚️

1. The most recent data for April show construction spending increased by 1.24%, with 0.2% and 1.04% coming from residential and nonresidential spending, respectively. Image
2. This data surprised consensus expectations of 0.2% and contributed to an acceleration in the twelve-month trend.
3. For further context, we show the composition of the most change in monthly construction spending. The strongest contributor to construction spending in April was Manufacturing, while the weakest was Religious construction spending: Image
Read 8 tweets
Resilient US Consumer 🧵

1. In April, households saw incomes increase as employment and inflation contributed to nominal incomes. Alongside this increase in employment income, we also saw continued support from income on assets total incomes. Below we show the composition: Image
2. Personal income increased by 0.36% in April, disappointing consensus expectations of 0.4%. This print contributed to a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend.
3. The primary drivers of this print were Employee Compensation (0.6%) & Income on Assets (0.25%). Over the last year, Employee Compensation (3.36%), Rental Income (0.5%), & Income on Assets (0.96%). have been the primary sources of the 5.43% growth in income.
Read 18 tweets
Weekly Recap

Do not worry in case you missed out on any action from @prometheusmacro last week. Below we pen down all the key takeaways & opinion threads that were shared with the wider community. Make sure to #SubscribeToday so that you don't miss any of the updates.
1. We introduced the 'Prometheus Daily Trend Signals' to share the latest trend updates for all 37 ETFs across four asset classes daily.

2. Next, we presented a first glimpse of the Cyclical Rotation Strategy for Equities.

Read 9 tweets
On Wages, Profits & Interest Expense

1. The current macroeconomic picture remains where heightened nominal demand continues to press against the economy's capacity constraints, creating heightened inflation. Image
2. We think these dynamics will
likely be resolved through the Fed's tightening cycle by raising interest burdens in the economy relative to incomes, creating pressure on profitability for companies, and leading to an eventual lay-off of
3. Therefore, the key to understanding whether the Fed's hiking cycle has been adequate is
whether profits will contract. This profit contraction will likely come from declining topline, sticky wages, and increasing debt service costs.
Read 8 tweets
1. Our process tells us that we are likely headed towards a stagflationary environment, i.e., with growth contracting and inflation likely to be persistent. This regime tends to be one of the worst for passive investors, the reasoning for which is twofold. Image
2. Recessions are the primary risk to stocks as nominal spending collapses. At the same time, inflationary episodes are the primary risk to bonds as their fixed interest rate becomes less attractive relative to other nominal assets.
3. While we intend to provide a more in-depth commentary on both of these components separately in our upcoming Month in Macro report, we provide a sneak peek in what will be further elaborated on.
Read 9 tweets
1/ Hey frends! Have you heard the news? @PythNetwork is now officially live on the @injective #mainnet, bringing a whole new level of possibilities for #dApps and the #Injective community!
Let's dive into what this integration means and how it impacts the world of #DeFi🌐
#INJ Image
Pyth is an #oracle network that revolutionizes the way real-world data is brought #onchain
Through its innovative low-latency pull oracle design, Pyth publishes continuous real-world #data, inc. prices, for various markets spanning equities, #commodities, forex pairs & #crypto
With this integration, #Injective #dApps now have seamless access to #Pyth's #onchain #data, empowering #developers and users alike to leverage real-world #asset information within the #blockchain environment. This is a game-changer for Injective's #ecosystem! 🆙
Read 13 tweets
#NewsAlert 🚨 PVR Inox plans to shut down 50 cinema screens over the next 6 months

#PVR #PVRInox #PVRCinemas #MovieTheater #Business Image
#EarningsWithMC | PVR Inox reported net consolidated loss for #Q4FY23 at Rs 333.37 crore, widening from the loss of Rs 107.41 crore in the same quarter last year.

More details⤵️…

#PVR #PVRInox #PVRCinemas #Earnings #Q4Results #Stocks #Markets
#PVR Inox announced its intention to close around 50 #cinema screens within the next six months. These screens either operate at a loss or are situated in malls that have reached the end of their life cycle.

Read at ⬇️…

Read 3 tweets
Here is this Week’s Market Wrap 'Politics Returns' written by @shyamsek

A Thread (1/n)

#stockmarket #investments #politics #personalfinance #marketwrap
The markets have intense spells when politics prevails over everything else in directing sentiment. Closer to every general election, this trend returns to haunt the markets. (2/n)

#markets #indiangovernment #elections
But, the ability of politics to drive sentiment is influenced by how much the outcome of the election will drive change. If change is likely to be significant and for the better, the markets can run up ahead of elections. (3/n)

#stockmarket #politics #investors
Read 10 tweets
Nature's financialisation lobby latest disingenuous narratives and tactics involve pushing governments to help create demand for #biodiversity #offset markets, and dropping the #offset claim in appearance only, in order to reduce legal liability: 1/11…
The latest report from the taskforce on nature markets lobby group openly advocates for the "imposition of a nature / #biodiversity tax and trading system" as a "potential legal enablers for scaling biodiversity credit #markets." 2/11
"The proceeds from the tax could then be applied by the government to fund the purchase of biodiversity credits from projects in accordance with government priorities. This approach would serve as an incentive for corporates to reduce their negative impacts on nature... 3/11
Read 11 tweets
US Futures, Asia Stocks Fall as Traders Trim Risk

#Trading #Stocks #Opex #StockMarket #markets…
1/ US equity futures declined with most stocks in Asia as traders trimmed risk levels before a slew of economic data this week that may help illuminate the path forward for interest rates.

Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 extended losses following a muted
2/ end to trading last week, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures pointed to a slight decline. MSCI Inc.’s Asia Pacific Index was on course for the lowest close since end March, while equity benchmarks in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia all dropped.

Leveraged investors boosted
Read 14 tweets
Here is this Week’s Market Wrap

'2023: The Year to Show Conviction' written by @shyamsek

A Thread (1/n)

#stockmarket #investors #marketwrap
The markets seem to be progressively losing steam. This would show up as weak sentiment, selling pressure, lower volumes on exchanges, and FII outflows. (2/n)

#stockmarketindia #FII #investors
But, there is also a section of domestic investors showing remarkable resilience and persistence in their investing. They are still buying every dip and gradually scaling up their portfolios. (3/n)

#investing #portfolio #equity
Read 13 tweets
New iOS in #Markets

Indian #Options Speculators.

There has been a huge surge in #Retail and #Proprietary trading in #Options and more specifically in #Index Options.

The Data & Charts below are just #Crazy and getting crazier.
1) #Retail Participation went through the roof in 2021

Some Moderation now in 2022-2023

#Retail in Cash Market From 3 cr in Jan 20 to 11.7 cr in 2021.
#Retail at 3.2 cr participants March 23.

3x jump in all participation from Jan 20 !! Image
2) Everyone is an #Option Trader

#FIIs are just 9.5% of #IndexOptions Premium Turnover !!! From 21% in Fy20.

45% is #Domestic Prop ( #Broker trading on its own behalf )

35% is #Retail.
Retail + pro = 80%
#Retail is almost 4x of #FIIs.

Btw #FIIs own 20% of India. Image
Read 12 tweets
What are the telltale signs that your biz is going the downward spiral? When biz is going the downward trajectory, there are usually early warning signals to look out for & can help you deal with the matter before it gets out of hand!
Courtsey image
1/11 When you realize customers complaints are on the increase, your are dealing with length queues, and worst case, you have lost some of your key customers that you heavily relied on. This is detrimental to the business cashflow!
2/11 Your sales are steadily declining, hence affecting your profitability. This is is a clear sign that things are not going well!
Read 12 tweets
Here is why you should learn about functionality of risk-ON/risk-OFF in #markets no matter what asset class you decide to #trade:

It gives you foundations to good expectations. There is one pool of global capital that moves in and out of the risk offense or risk defense mode. You should know in what mode market is today to begin with and how it impacts your selected ticker of the day in focus.

For example, if you decide to long equity ticker under severe selling pressure like $FRC the risk-ON flows have to cooperate, else your chances of longs working are going to be by default much smaller. The riskier the asset and the more liquid the more you need risk-ON mode.

Read 11 tweets
Here is this Week’s Market Wrap

'Prepare With Patience' written by @shyamsek

A thread! (1/n)

#globalmarkets #investors #marketwrap
The last week has caused a significant reset in our investing. We are once again worried about how global factors will come to hurt. Banking, which is the bed rock of every economy looks like the most rattled space in the west. (2/n)

#banking #economy #investments
When smaller banks look weak, they create a systematic scare which needs to be urgently addressed. What we are seeing in the US is a rush to douse the fire that can damage far more than we can imagine. (3/n)

#bankingsector #globaleconomy
Read 11 tweets
Office Buildings: Navigating out of the Bermuda Triangle. 🤔

Tenants are fundamentally reevaluating ‘why’ they need office space, how much space they ‘need’ and what kind of buildings they ‘want’ to be in. 👇

A thread 🧵 … 👇

#realestate #markets…

‘Best in Class’ and ‘Flight to Quality’ are being redefined.

The race is on to find the new ‘formula’ to attract and retain office tenants.

The winners will survive.

The losers will be converted, abandoned or demolished.

‘Work from home’ is here to stay.

Employees and management like it because it improves their quality of life.

Owners like it because it reduces fixed operating costs without reducing productivity.
Read 8 tweets
A week ago, after hearing #ChairPowell’s testimony before Congress, all eyes were set to be on today’s #inflation data, which presumably would help market participants better understand the #FOMC’s policy reaction at its March 22nd meeting.
What a difference a week makes these days! Of course, all eyes are still on today’s data, but now there are many other things we need to consider (such as #FinancialStability concerns), when judging the reaction function of the @federalreserve.
As we have long contended, #markets tend to be fairly myopic and lacking in patience, so having to focus on more than one news item at a time causes tremendous #uncertainty and thus greater market #volatility.
Read 16 tweets

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