Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Markets

Most recents (24)

This chart is shows current market breadth. Note that macro setup was very different in 2015/16 ; massive stimulus outside US and the Fed paused after 1 hike. We narrowly avoided recession, and inflation was not an issue (deflation was).
This is very different from what we have now so don’t draw any hasty parallels and stay vigilant. #ES #investing
The key STILL is the dollar. Weaker dollar means less pressure on world economy means higher stock prices and good for Bitcoin. I wish it were that easy. To me it looks like #markets got ahead of themselves since October 1.
Read 4 tweets
FT opinion article: “The energy crisis gives the US a chance to woo big European companies”. If cheap natural gas can’t come to Europe, Europe will have to go the cheap natural gas. Thread #markets #equities #bonds #energy #ESG ft.com/content/0a78d7…
1/According to the author European heavy industry has endured a grim few months. Although the fuel crisis appears to be easing and companies invest in green energy/efficiency some are also rethinking their geographic footprint.
2/The US now has an opportunity to woo European multinationals, with energy costs clearly playing a role in new investments. US has an advantage over Europe because natural gas supplies are local, reliable and consistently cheaper.
Read 7 tweets
Yesterday I discovered something so major that I thought it needs to reach people beyond my paid subscribers.

I re-visited our analysis on the factors behind global market liquidity from 2018 👇 and found something very disturbing.

Thread. 1/19
gnseconomics.com/2018/10/12/the…
In 2018, we found three 'facture lines' from global financial architecture:

1) Global outside-US dollar denominated debt has risen to a record.
2) The role of non-bank institutions on providing funding has increased.
2/
3) The composition of international credit has shifted from bank loans to debt securities.

We concluded that:
"Combined with the asset purchase programs of central banks (QE) these developments have far-reaching consequences for the global economy."
3/
Read 20 tweets
The @federalreserve’s #FOMC has now moved in 75 basis point increments four times this year to get to a sought-after #policy destination very quickly.
Yet, the destination seems to have moved further away with each subsequent elevated #inflation print, and with #employment in the country remaining very tight.
Hence, while moving the #FederalFunds rate at a very fast 75 bps increment seemed almost inconceivable several months ago, especially as the #Fed was still undertaking quantitative easing (#QE) in March, we have become used to this extraordinary increment.
Read 15 tweets
#Climate negotiations are entering a new & challenging phase. Many countries need to do more to lower greenhouse gas emissions to keep the targets in the 2015 #Paris agreement alive.

Read our latest policy brief by @AnthonyDworkin & @MatsEngstrom⬇️
buff.ly/3Dp5zAU
Ahead of #COP27, multilateral climate negotiations are stalling due to geopolitical tensions, distrust between the global south and high-income countries, and concerns about #energysupplies.
@ECFRPower
It is necessary to move faster in implementing #emissions-reduction measures, but the need for consensus in the global #climate process makes this difficult.
Read 7 tweets
🧵 Is the American Dream dead? - a tweetstorm

This is a brain dump of .@RaoulGMI's 30+ years of knowledge, how the world works, and how his macro framework fits into it all ⤵️
1/ There's no denying that we're in a mess!

By the Law of Unintended Consequences, every time we try to fix A, we create problems B, C, D, E, etc.

We hardly understand these new problems unless there's hindsight to connect the dots...
2/ [PART I: #HISTORY]

So, how the hell did we get here?

Let's start by looking at the peak of the #British Empire:

It was the world's largest realm. But as with every empire, trying to control so many people across the globe has its price & #debt weakened its structure...
Read 81 tweets
#VLRM look to get final confirmation of the #GSX deal, morphing from basically a Spac into one of the world's first fully regulated exchanges crossing the digital divide, between #fiat & #crypto!
So for under 12 Million MCAP what's currently not priced in & what can we expect...
🔥The #GSX is a regulated exchange market (Tier 1 exchange) which also holds an Multi-Lateral Trading Facility ("MTF") licence for the listing of specific forms of security under MiFID.
#markets #StocksToBuy #stockstoinvest #Aquis #aim
🔥#Juno - 3 areas of licensed operations cover the formation & management of trusts & similar entities, the administration of funds, a broad range of activities, like fiat & crypto currencies & the formation & management of companies in #Gibraltar / jurisdictions worldwide.
Read 16 tweets
Tip from personal journey as ever learning #markets researcher:
Whoever you learn from make sure their opinions and theory is balanced against frequent directional calls on assets. "Nobody knows where markets are going is a must to avoid excuse".
#trading
There is huge amount of information selling in markets but low applicability and edge focus.
You can't know who has applicable knowledge unless their views are battle tested in markets. Hence opinions on asset directions are necessary. It cant just be all about info pushing.
Learning too long from those who hold 5 year long views and have only one asset in play and then after their views fail you wonder how did I get there? It's on you not them because you haven't explicitly made a goal to test their views trough higher frequency of exposure.
Read 10 tweets
HDFC Bank

2QFY23 Result Update

#hdfcbank #2qfy23

Standalone numbers:

Net Interest Income (#NII) at 21,021cr (up 19% YoY)
#Loan Growth 23% YoY, #Deposit Growth 19% YoY

Non-interest Inc (Inc treasury) at 7,596cr (up 3% YoY, lower growth due to less treasury income this year)
#Treasury Inc at 253cr (lower by 71% YoY, due to higher bond yield this year vs last year)

Total Operating Exps at 11,225cr (up 21% YoY)
Cost to Income Ratio at 39.2% vs 37% last year.

Operating Profit at 17, 392cr (up 10% YoY, lower growth due to lower treasury inc this yr)
Provision for Loan loss / NPA at 3,240cr (lower by 17% YoY, no covid related provision this year and better recovery)

Net Profit at 10,606cr (up by 20% YoY)
Consolidated Net Profit at 11,125cr (up by 22% YoY)

Net NPA Ratio at 0.33% vs 0.40% last year, 0.35% as on 1QFY23.
Read 10 tweets
A look at India Vs the Rest of the world!

A Thread!

#india #economy #globaleconomy #inflation

(1/n)
India is emerging as one of the relatively better-off economies in the post-COVID world.

#indianeconomy

(2/n)
Looking closely, we find that India’s inflation is well controlled, ATH FX reserves have acted well as a shock absorber against volatility, and our GDP growth expectations is one the highest in the world!

#inflation #volatility #GDP

(3/n)
Read 8 tweets
Today's #blogpost discusses #Grantham's recent comments on the #SuperBubble's final act. Is that the case, or is this time different?
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t…
We find ourselves at the crossroads where #markets and #fundamental realities meet. From this point, the outlook for equities over the next 9-12 months is more #bearish than #bullish.
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t… Image
Notably, the “difference this time” is the #Fed is aggressively tightening #monetary #policy to slow economic growth and reduce demand-driven inflation. The consequence is negative concerning both #economic and #earnings growth.
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t… Image
Read 4 tweets
So much to get from #scrapbooks Image
. @blackjen1 argues that visual strategies in #newspapers are the beginning of #graphicdesign
Read 4 tweets
🧵 on the global macros,

(1) What’s happening to Yields & Currencies globally?
(2) Why is the $ going up?
(3) Why is INR performing better than most currencies?

Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors (1/25)

#investing #StockMarket #Markets
(Q1) Where did all of this start?

(1a) COVID put the breaks on all kind of economic activities, fear of GDP slowing down, Individuals losing jobs, Companies making losses etc. (2/25)
(1b) Central banks globally unleashed a liquidity package by lowering rates (so that loans become cheap & u buy more) & doing Quantitative Easing (QE)/buying back bonds (Similar to when you buy an FD from a bank, u give bank the money & increase the liquidity with the bank)(3/25)
Read 25 tweets
Spread #Forex #Trading. How to make money from #FX #markets?
Greetings Client,
LC Digital is regulated as #digital #investment bank in #Canada. I would like to explain you about our profitable strategies platform.
Forex trading is all about attempting to profit by anticipating the price direction of a currency pair. But what if you could profit from the Forex market without having to do this?
Read 22 tweets
What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
Today’s @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) meeting witnessed another historic 75 bps increase to policy rate levels (to a range of 3.0% to 3.25%) in an effort for the #CentralBank to manage its number one priority: fighting persistently high #inflation.
The #Fed, including in today’s meeting statement and in the Chair’s press conference, has been clearer than arguably any central bank in identifying its current goal and moving #InterestRates and #liquidity provision to achieve it.
Indeed, by moving the #Fed Funds rate for the third time in 75 bps increments we see clear evidence of a strong desire by the Committee to temper demand as a way to achieve its goal of #price moderation.
Read 13 tweets
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents "Rehab."

Tune in Thursday, 9/15/2022 at 1:15 pm PT | 4:15 pm ET.

#macro #markets #commodities #Fed #inflation #growth #rates #stocks #bonds #EM #Europe #USD #FOMC #Powell #recession Image
.@DLineCap CEO Jeffrey Gundlach: I think the U.S. needs to go into rehab
Gundlach: There are 1,250 IRS agents who are not paying taxes. 87,00 new IRS agents coming.
Read 65 tweets
1/5 🧵

Is the #Fed still lagging behind its announced portfolio reduction plan?

Although it was announced that the balance sheet would be reduced by $47.5B monthly, in 12 weeks, the portfolio decreased by only $51.7B. U.S Treasury debt growth; Buying securities by Fed; SpendingDeposits with the Fed, $30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the USUS Government Bonds Rates (10Y, 5Y, 2Y)
2/5 🧵

During this time, the #MBS portfolio even grew by $18.5B. If the Fed can't reduce the #portfolio even by half, how they will reduce it from September 2022 is a big question. Generally, before, the #Fed didn't allow itself such a hack.
3/5 🧵

The #US Treasury has again reduced its #holdings on deposits with the #Fed; now, $530B remains in the #accounts of the US Treasury, compared to $650B planned for the end of the #quarter.
Read 5 tweets
In his @federalreserve #JacksonHole speech #ChairPowell stated emphatically that the #FOMC’s “overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.”
In other words, we take his statement today to mean that the #Fed won’t be easily swayed into reversing rate #hikes next year, and will stay with the elevated Funds rate for a long time.
The #Fed has clearly been (appropriately) rushing to get to a destination of #inflation-denting restrictive rate (and #liquidity) policy in order to break extremely high levels of inflation, while hopefully not thrusting the economy into a deep #recession.
Read 11 tweets
/1 📣 This weeks major web3 news hot off the press 📣

❌ The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation issued cease-and-desist letters to five crypto companies, incl. @FTX_Official

🤝 @solana teams up with @jump_ for validator client to boost performance and decentralization
/2 🪙 As a precautionary measure, @Coinbase will pause new ETH and ERC-20 token deposits and withdrawals during the Merge

⚽️ Football club @Atletienglish partners with @STEPNofficial and @WhaleFinApp to launch NFT Sneakers Collection
/3 ⚖️ @CelsiusNetwork' collapse into bankruptcy should be probed, US says, seeking the sort of investigation previously deployed in cases of Enron and Lehman Brothers

🇺🇦 Ukraine bought weapons with some of the $60 million crypto donated after Russia’s invasion
Read 6 tweets
Are you still making Plan before #Markets Open❓
👇🏼Here's our #CPR templates to trade 👇🏼

✅When to take a #Intraday #Trade?
✅Location to take a #Intraday #Trade?
✅When not to take the #Intraday #Trade?

🫱🏼Here's a #Thread 🧵 Image
🫱🏼#Bullish Templates
↗️Higher Value CPR Relationship: -

Setup 1⃣: Bullish CPR Test
Timeframe: 5 Min
▶️Price open above CPR and Tests CPR (BUY)

Example👇🏼 ImageImage
#Setup 2⃣: Previous Day Low (PDL)Test
Timeframe: 5Min
▶️Price open below CPR
▶️On Bullish Test of PDL (BUY)

Example👇🏼 ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
The #BullBearReport is out.
The #rally runs into resistance and backtracks as #overbought conditions slow the #bulls. Is the run over, or just resting? We review the #FOMC minutes, what it means for #investors, the #technical backdrop and #allocations.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
At 2-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and the 200-dma acting as resistance, the #market pullback, as discussed last week, was expected. Support levels reside just below between 4000 and 4160.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
Great note from BofA this weekend.
“Applying a 20th century PE of 15x gets you to an S&P500 index of 3300, applying a 21st century PE of 20x gets you to an S&P500 of 4400; there’s your range."
Problem: The drivers of the 21st century range are reversing.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
Read 5 tweets
In Financial markets, Exit strategy is least talked about topic but plays very important role in generating Alpha, here is a thread covering the 15 point strategy on the same with 2022 case study. Retweet for wider reach & get rewarded #StockMarket #cryptocurrency #Markets (1/n)
Equity markets goes through Greed & Fear cycle and pendulum tends to swing to the extreme with Overvaluation/ exuberance in Bull market peak and Undervaluation/ panic in Bear market #StockMarketindia #DowJones #SmallCaps (2/n)
It is very important to stay unbiased, calm and take rationale decision in all the situations. The rationale decision can be change in investing style/ strategy to conservative ( during bull market peak) or aggressive during bear marker bottom #StockMarket #cryptocurrency (3/n)
Read 16 tweets
THREAD

1/10 🧵

As you know, Michael Burry recently sold 98% of his #investment portfolio. Remember that in 2008 he predicted the #collapse of the financial #markets. As always, he cites facts based on fundamental analytics. Will there be a big #crash?
2/10 🧵

1⃣ Elon Musk sold 75% of $BTC;
2⃣ Ray Dalio had taken a short for $10B;
3⃣ Ambiguous movement on the $MSTR #btc wallet and the subsequent resignation of Saylor from the post of CEO;
4⃣ Sales of #MTGox are scheduled for the end of this month.

And much more.
3/10 🧵

#Bitcoin has become a clone of the S&P 500 Index, and all #altcoins follow $BTC, so it is essential to understand what is happening in the global #economy.
Read 10 tweets

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