There is an interesting positive ecological impact from this wave of Southern African Cyclones coming in from the Indian Ocean over Madagascar.

Namely they appear to be bringing significant rains to the Kalahari Desert area in central Southern Africa.
Here are the latest long range rain forecasts for Southern Africa. All indicate some rain in the area with the GFS and CMC model forecasts showing lesser quantities than the ECMWF and KMA models.
Rainfall so far in the desert area has been fairly minimal but the forecasts show the slow moving low pressure storm currently over Zimbabwe maintaining a significant amount of energy - and moving south west over the desert. [Satellite images Jan 24-27 below]
Here's a high resolution image of Storm Ana from Tuesday when the storm was centered over the Zimbabwe/Mozambique border.
Finally here is a 16 day GFS3 IVT (Integrated Vapour Transport) forecast which shows the remnants of Storm Ana moving slowly south west stalling and turning south east. This is where most of the rain we see in the forecasts is coming from.

& we also see two more storms incoming.

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More from @althecat

Jan 29
Whether intentionally/coincidentally or by “following the thread” the timing of @WFP’s statement (supported by a UN media briefing) and the publication of an @AP report about health issues in Tigray off of an Ethiopia Insight article submitted from Tigray appear coordinated.
And this activity is coinciding with a new burst of #tigraygenocide #hashtag activity. All of which coincides with a expanded TPLF offensive against Afar during which it appears they have occupied Ab’ala, and as a result ensured that the Semera-Mekelle aid corridor is closed.
This is a pattern of information support activity for TPLF activity which has been seen over and over again since TPLF rejected the GOE’s humanitarian ceasefire on June 28th.

This instance also coincides with questionable activity by @WHO’s electoral board r.e. @DrTedros
Read 18 tweets
Jan 29
Full video of the Pentagon Press conference held today by Sec. Defence Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley.

President Biden’s decision to appoint a military SecDef is starting to look questionable IMO.
Some top line comment on this presser in an earlier thread. TL/DR this is not a good way to give peace a chance, or to treat European NATO Allies, it is unnecessary and inflammatory.
And another thread looking at the widely misunderstood and misrepresented issue of Gas supplies in this conflict. NordStream 2 is not NATO leverage, the gas issue arises due to 40% of current EU gas coming from Russia.

It is Putin’s leverage, not NATO’s.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 28
A short briefing from @FRANCE24 on the Elephant in the room in the #ukraine Crisis, which mentions the most important aspect at the end and leaves out several impt. Details.

Gas pipeline becomes bargaining chip against Russia
The US and UK have both made a big play of the announcement from the German FM confirming that NordStream 2 can be used as a “leverage” in this standoff. Which is true. But it is not quite so simple.
The report points out at the end that Russia is already restricting gas supply, leading to very high gas prices, which highlights the fact that Russian gas supplies to Europe also provides Russia significant leverage.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 28
Why are America’s leading news organisations beating the drums of war incessantly?
Is this perhaps about Trump? And the humiliation of having a Russian stooge elected to the @WhiteHouse?
Read 4 tweets
Jan 28
It seems that German, French, Russian and Ukrainian and @UnderSecStateP’s efforts yesterday to lower the temperature on the #UkraineCrisis have come spectacularly unstuck. English language Western media in particular are having none of it.

bbc.com/news/world-eur…
It would have been better it seems had @JoeBiden not called Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. amp.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2…
CNN didn’t help. This is their cleaned up report it seems. amp.cnn.com/cnn/europe/liv…
Read 5 tweets
Jan 27
CNN has just had @StateDeptSpox Ned Price on, saying that if Russia invades Ukraine, the Russia-Germany Gas pipeline Nordstream 2 (completed - not online - opposed by US) will not proceed.

#UKRAINE #UkraineStandoff
@StateDeptSpox This is not exactly new news as it was reported yesterday by NPR and covered by @Reuters yesterday. So @CNN is today matching the story.
reuters.com/business/energ…
The remarks were made by @StateDeptSpox in this report from @NPR at 4.25pm US ET (10.25pm last night EU CEST). And in this case - with things moving so fast - the timing may actually be important.

@SecBlinken's briefing and announcement on this came at 12pm US ET (6pm CEST).
Read 33 tweets

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