While the weakening of the Sahara east west water transport event has led to a weakening in the weird weather over the Arabian Peninsula, it has not stopped.
Most notably we have seen significant snowfall in Israel, Lebanon Jordan & Syria.
And with a major European (Atlantic) tropical rain/snow event now underway the rain and snow activity in the Levant is forecast to continue. Here's yesterday's precipitation forecast for the Southern Levant.
And the Northern Levant.... (both forecasts are through to 4th February.
In the north of the Levant, Lebanon, Syria and Southern Turkey the snow has delivered a humanitarian crisis in refugee camps housing millions, which are not equipped for freezing conditions.
The snow - cold weather crises in both Syria and Afghanistan are dire due to adverse weather, and its far from clear what progress is being made to address them.
Satellite images below show snow cover in Lebanon and NW Syria on the 22nd and 25th January.
Also from the 25th of January, a nice clear image of the recent snow coverage in Afghanistan.
A cold northerly blast has brought freezing temperatures to the the Balkans including a new record low temperature in Montenegro.
A 10 day ECMWF snow depth forecast for the Eastern Med - where the temperature is forecast to continue to fall, accompanied by lots more snow
A corresponding temperature forecast (10 days from 25th Jan) shows two cold air bursts coming through the region.
Further south over the Arabian Peninsula the unusual weather is also forecast to continue. Each of these water four forecast water transport events (GFS3 model) are capable of bringing additional snow and rain today, Feb 1-2, and February 4th.
And additional rain/snow events are possible on Feb 9th and 10th as tropical moisture (Atlantic and Indian Ocean origin) collides with cold northerly weather over the Levant, Iraq and Iran.
The final two forecasts here show forecast 16 day rainfall over the Middlle East and Africa - which includes some more (modest) rain over Northern Ethiopia. Note that long-range model rain forecasts in the ME often under estimate the impacts.
>> Accompanying thread
Looking back at some of the #CrazyWeather#ExtremeWeather experienced between 19th and 27th of January in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East with @Arab_storms
Whether intentionally/coincidentally or by “following the thread” the timing of @WFP’s statement (supported by a UN media briefing) and the publication of an @AP report about health issues in Tigray off of an Ethiopia Insight article submitted from Tigray appear coordinated.
And this activity is coinciding with a new burst of #tigraygenocide#hashtag activity. All of which coincides with a expanded TPLF offensive against Afar during which it appears they have occupied Ab’ala, and as a result ensured that the Semera-Mekelle aid corridor is closed.
This is a pattern of information support activity for TPLF activity which has been seen over and over again since TPLF rejected the GOE’s humanitarian ceasefire on June 28th.
This instance also coincides with questionable activity by @WHO’s electoral board r.e. @DrTedros
Some top line comment on this presser in an earlier thread. TL/DR this is not a good way to give peace a chance, or to treat European NATO Allies, it is unnecessary and inflammatory.
And another thread looking at the widely misunderstood and misrepresented issue of Gas supplies in this conflict. NordStream 2 is not NATO leverage, the gas issue arises due to 40% of current EU gas coming from Russia.
A short briefing from @FRANCE24 on the Elephant in the room in the #ukraine Crisis, which mentions the most important aspect at the end and leaves out several impt. Details.
Gas pipeline becomes bargaining chip against Russia
The US and UK have both made a big play of the announcement from the German FM confirming that NordStream 2 can be used as a “leverage” in this standoff. Which is true. But it is not quite so simple.
The report points out at the end that Russia is already restricting gas supply, leading to very high gas prices, which highlights the fact that Russian gas supplies to Europe also provides Russia significant leverage.
It seems that German, French, Russian and Ukrainian and @UnderSecStateP’s efforts yesterday to lower the temperature on the #UkraineCrisis have come spectacularly unstuck. English language Western media in particular are having none of it.
CNN has just had @StateDeptSpox Ned Price on, saying that if Russia invades Ukraine, the Russia-Germany Gas pipeline Nordstream 2 (completed - not online - opposed by US) will not proceed.
The remarks were made by @StateDeptSpox in this report from @NPR at 4.25pm US ET (10.25pm last night EU CEST). And in this case - with things moving so fast - the timing may actually be important.
@SecBlinken's briefing and announcement on this came at 12pm US ET (6pm CEST).