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Jan 27 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/27 Texas C19 Brief update: Hospitalization Peak???

* Today is the day. I predicted that hospitalizations through 1/26 would peak in the 7DMA. Is today peak or not? Let's find out.
* No analysis beyond hospitalizations today. See yesterday's update.

1/n
1/27 - Let's look at the numbers first

Through 1/26:

* Admits are in decline. 7DMA peak was 1/20
* Gen Hosp Census @ 13360
* Census 7DMA @ 13,252
* Imminent Census peak is evident in image #3
* Whether today is the peak all depends on the number in image #2 below, in green

2/n
1/27 - So is 1/26 peak or what?

* In a 7 day moving average, the 8th day back falls off the average
* So tomorrow, the 1/20 number falls off. That is 13,371, which so far is the census single day peak
* If 1/27 Census number is less than 13,371 then the 7DMA declines

3/n
1/27 - Final thoughts and conclusion

* Admits past 2 days indicate its possible we see a Census < 13,371
* If I miss, likely will be by 1-2 days
* Either way, this Covid wave forecasting isnt really that hard if you spend time on it & can analyze data. #PublicHealthModelingsucks

• • •

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 29
1/28 Texas C19 Update - So this is what Mahomes felt like when he hit Kelce to beat the Bills in OT

THREAD:

* Testing, Cases & all that
* All my Hospitalization Predictions came true
* Public Health Covid modeling has been pathetic. Atrociously wrong. Politically driven

1/n
1/28 Testing

* As of 1/18/22, everything is in steep decline
* Testing peak was 1/10
* Positives peak was 1/12
* Positivity peak was 1/14
* Its collapsing really fast. Hence we see the same thing in cases in 3/n.

2/n ImageImageImageImage
1/28 - Cases

* Cases in free-fall, 7DMA declining at 25% week over week and increasing
* 7DMA down to 36K, which is still a ridiculous number but not as ridiculous as 52K
* Case 7DMA peak was 1/17
* Declining almost as rapidly as it ascended

3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 26
1/26 Texas C19 Update: Here comes the Hospitalization Peak

THREAD:

* Testing metrics peaked between 1/10 & 1/14 and are declining fast as of 1/16
* Thus, Cases reported this week are falling off a cliff
* Hospitalization peak should be 1/26 as I predicted 2 weeks ago?!!!

1/n
1/26 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/16:
* Pos% declines to 32.71%
* Testing peaked 1/10
* Positive tests peaked 1/12
* Positivity Rate peaked 1/14
* Decline steepening as of 1/16, which is now showing in cases
.
2/n ImageImageImage
1/26 - Cases

* Case 7DMA now in a precipitous drop, down to 41K. Confident in saying Case peak was 1/17
* 7DMA rate of decline now at 18%
* Going back to testing @ 1/16 and comparing to reported cases through that date, conversion % indicates Case peak as well
* #ovah
.
3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 25
1/25 Texas C19 Abbreviated update

THREAD:

* Will summarize peaks for testing and cases
* Case data late today, so won't report on it
* Hospitalization analysis, Admits through Vents

1/n
1/25 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/15:
* Pos% rate peaked on 1/14, decline started on 1/15
* Testing peaked on 1/10
* Positive Tests peaked on 1/12
* Cases peaked on 1/17
* Color coded the table with that info

2/n
 .
1/25 Hospitalizations

* Admits 7DMA likely peaked on 1/20. 1/24 will be the end of its crest, tomorrow starts steep decline
* 1/24 General Census was a hard comp to MLK suppressed number. Tomorrow will begin full crest & rapid decent
* ICU & Vent will crest soon after
.
3/n
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 24
1/24 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* Testing & Cases have already peaked. Will breakdown the dates they peaked in this thread
* Hospitalization Census may have already peaked, 7DMA still tracking with my near 2 week old prediction of peaking on 1/25
* Its downhill from here

1/n
1/24 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/14:
* Pos% @ 32.90%, which will be peak for the wave
* Positive Tests appeared to peak on 1/12
* Testing appeared to peak on 1/10
* This informs Case peak estimate I'll make on 3/n

2/n
1/24 - Cases

* Case 7DMA big drop to at 46K. Now 7K behind 1/17 peak
* With both Testing in decline starting 1/10 & positivity rate starting 1/14, positive tests are only going down from there
* Case peak of 1/17 (due to batch reporting) likely holds based on the above
.
3/n
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 23
“Dopesick” is compulsory viewing because in this age of vaccine mandates – when anything short of unabashed adoration of Big Pharma & govt health agencies, as well as compulsive compliance with their edicts, leaves you ostracized from society…”

1/n
rt.com/op-ed/538714-t…
“Dopesick”…”lays bare the corrosive corruption of capitalism on “science” and exposes egregious government complicity with a pharmaceutical company that directly led to the tragedy of the opioid epidemic.”

2/n
rt.com/op-ed/538714-t…
“Remarkably, Purdue… got the FDA to allow the company to put a label on OxyContin saying that danger of addiction was extremely low, despite no studies showing this claim to be true. “

3/n
rt.com/op-ed/538714-t…
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 22
1/22 Texas C19 Update: Here comes the Peak

THREAD:

* Covid Hosp Admits 7DMA cresting, this time for real (not MLK induced)
* Census still tracking for 1/25 7DMA peak
* Testing and Positives topped out ~8-10 days ago
* Still believing there is one last Case peak coming
.
1/n
1/22 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/12:
* Pos% @ 32.75%, testing cresting @ 218K/day
* Positive tests cresting @ 71K/day
* Pos% peak will be between 1/11-14. Weekend arrivals are usually heavy negatives. Will know Monday

2/n
1/22 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by county
* Case 7DMA hanging around at 48K
* Growth is stalled, but still waiting for the last final peak beyond 52K. Conversion percentage is still not to past case peaks, and still near 70K positives/day end of last week
.
3/n
Read 6 tweets

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