1/28 Texas C19 Update - So this is what Mahomes felt like when he hit Kelce to beat the Bills in OT

THREAD:

* Testing, Cases & all that
* All my Hospitalization Predictions came true
* Public Health Covid modeling has been pathetic. Atrociously wrong. Politically driven

1/n
1/28 Testing

* As of 1/18/22, everything is in steep decline
* Testing peak was 1/10
* Positives peak was 1/12
* Positivity peak was 1/14
* Its collapsing really fast. Hence we see the same thing in cases in 3/n.

2/n
1/28 - Cases

* Cases in free-fall, 7DMA declining at 25% week over week and increasing
* 7DMA down to 36K, which is still a ridiculous number but not as ridiculous as 52K
* Case 7DMA peak was 1/17
* Declining almost as rapidly as it ascended

3/n
4/n - Hospitalizations

* Nailed predictions I made on 1/14 & 1/18
* 1/14 Prediction was for general hosp census 7DMA to peak on 1/26. Check
* 1/18 Prediction was for same to peak at 13,300 beds. Actual was 13,252. Check
* Admits are declining rapidly, all downhill now

4/n
1/28 Hospitalizations part 2 -

* My General Hospitalization prediction of 13,300 peak.
* ICU and Vents are both appearing to peak as well
* 2020 Winter will catch up to both of these and leave them in the dust. Severity is super low this wave compared to cases #CFR

5/n
How can private citizens like myself, @Hold2LLC @districtai @pcfudge @TheLawyerCraig, many others, who do this for free, part-time, run circles around billion dollar universities, other public health modelers?

It's truly an embarrassment...

6/n
@Hold2LLC @districtai @pcfudge @TheLawyerCraig Obviously the goal of most of these modelers isn't accuracy, its politics and lining their own pockets. Its just another travesty of this entire ordeal that it takes volunteers on Twitter to put out accurate analysis and data. And honestly, its just evil.

7/n
@Hold2LLC @districtai @pcfudge @TheLawyerCraig The modelers that assisted public health in subverting our freedoms with flawed & intentionally wrong data....let's just say I hope they have a special place waiting for them.

Meanwhile, I will bask in the glory of my perfectly thrown back shoulder TD pass. LOL

8/end

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More from @therealarod1984

Jan 27
1/27 Texas C19 Brief update: Hospitalization Peak???

* Today is the day. I predicted that hospitalizations through 1/26 would peak in the 7DMA. Is today peak or not? Let's find out.
* No analysis beyond hospitalizations today. See yesterday's update.

1/n
1/27 - Let's look at the numbers first

Through 1/26:

* Admits are in decline. 7DMA peak was 1/20
* Gen Hosp Census @ 13360
* Census 7DMA @ 13,252
* Imminent Census peak is evident in image #3
* Whether today is the peak all depends on the number in image #2 below, in green

2/n
1/27 - So is 1/26 peak or what?

* In a 7 day moving average, the 8th day back falls off the average
* So tomorrow, the 1/20 number falls off. That is 13,371, which so far is the census single day peak
* If 1/27 Census number is less than 13,371 then the 7DMA declines

3/n
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
1/26 Texas C19 Update: Here comes the Hospitalization Peak

THREAD:

* Testing metrics peaked between 1/10 & 1/14 and are declining fast as of 1/16
* Thus, Cases reported this week are falling off a cliff
* Hospitalization peak should be 1/26 as I predicted 2 weeks ago?!!!

1/n
1/26 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/16:
* Pos% declines to 32.71%
* Testing peaked 1/10
* Positive tests peaked 1/12
* Positivity Rate peaked 1/14
* Decline steepening as of 1/16, which is now showing in cases
.
2/n ImageImageImage
1/26 - Cases

* Case 7DMA now in a precipitous drop, down to 41K. Confident in saying Case peak was 1/17
* 7DMA rate of decline now at 18%
* Going back to testing @ 1/16 and comparing to reported cases through that date, conversion % indicates Case peak as well
* #ovah
.
3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Jan 25
1/25 Texas C19 Abbreviated update

THREAD:

* Will summarize peaks for testing and cases
* Case data late today, so won't report on it
* Hospitalization analysis, Admits through Vents

1/n
1/25 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/15:
* Pos% rate peaked on 1/14, decline started on 1/15
* Testing peaked on 1/10
* Positive Tests peaked on 1/12
* Cases peaked on 1/17
* Color coded the table with that info

2/n
.
1/25 Hospitalizations

* Admits 7DMA likely peaked on 1/20. 1/24 will be the end of its crest, tomorrow starts steep decline
* 1/24 General Census was a hard comp to MLK suppressed number. Tomorrow will begin full crest & rapid decent
* ICU & Vent will crest soon after
.
3/n
Read 4 tweets
Jan 24
1/24 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* Testing & Cases have already peaked. Will breakdown the dates they peaked in this thread
* Hospitalization Census may have already peaked, 7DMA still tracking with my near 2 week old prediction of peaking on 1/25
* Its downhill from here

1/n
1/24 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/14:
* Pos% @ 32.90%, which will be peak for the wave
* Positive Tests appeared to peak on 1/12
* Testing appeared to peak on 1/10
* This informs Case peak estimate I'll make on 3/n

2/n
1/24 - Cases

* Case 7DMA big drop to at 46K. Now 7K behind 1/17 peak
* With both Testing in decline starting 1/10 & positivity rate starting 1/14, positive tests are only going down from there
* Case peak of 1/17 (due to batch reporting) likely holds based on the above
.
3/n
Read 6 tweets
Jan 23
“Dopesick” is compulsory viewing because in this age of vaccine mandates – when anything short of unabashed adoration of Big Pharma & govt health agencies, as well as compulsive compliance with their edicts, leaves you ostracized from society…”

1/n

rt.com/op-ed/538714-t…
“Dopesick”…”lays bare the corrosive corruption of capitalism on “science” and exposes egregious government complicity with a pharmaceutical company that directly led to the tragedy of the opioid epidemic.”

2/n

rt.com/op-ed/538714-t…
“Remarkably, Purdue… got the FDA to allow the company to put a label on OxyContin saying that danger of addiction was extremely low, despite no studies showing this claim to be true. “

3/n

rt.com/op-ed/538714-t…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 22
1/22 Texas C19 Update: Here comes the Peak

THREAD:

* Covid Hosp Admits 7DMA cresting, this time for real (not MLK induced)
* Census still tracking for 1/25 7DMA peak
* Testing and Positives topped out ~8-10 days ago
* Still believing there is one last Case peak coming
.
1/n
1/22 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/12:
* Pos% @ 32.75%, testing cresting @ 218K/day
* Positive tests cresting @ 71K/day
* Pos% peak will be between 1/11-14. Weekend arrivals are usually heavy negatives. Will know Monday

2/n
1/22 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by county
* Case 7DMA hanging around at 48K
* Growth is stalled, but still waiting for the last final peak beyond 52K. Conversion percentage is still not to past case peaks, and still near 70K positives/day end of last week
.
3/n
Read 6 tweets

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