1/26 Texas C19 Update: Here comes the Hospitalization Peak
THREAD:
* Testing metrics peaked between 1/10 & 1/14 and are declining fast as of 1/16
* Thus, Cases reported this week are falling off a cliff
* Hospitalization peak should be 1/26 as I predicted 2 weeks ago?!!!
1/n
THREAD:
* Testing metrics peaked between 1/10 & 1/14 and are declining fast as of 1/16
* Thus, Cases reported this week are falling off a cliff
* Hospitalization peak should be 1/26 as I predicted 2 weeks ago?!!!
1/n
https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1485717200833060864
1/26 Testing
Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 1/16:
* Pos% declines to 32.71%
* Testing peaked 1/10
* Positive tests peaked 1/12
* Positivity Rate peaked 1/14
* Decline steepening as of 1/16, which is now showing in cases
.
2/n
Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 1/16:
* Pos% declines to 32.71%
* Testing peaked 1/10
* Positive tests peaked 1/12
* Positivity Rate peaked 1/14
* Decline steepening as of 1/16, which is now showing in cases
.
2/n
1/26 - Cases
* Case 7DMA now in a precipitous drop, down to 41K. Confident in saying Case peak was 1/17
* 7DMA rate of decline now at 18%
* Going back to testing @ 1/16 and comparing to reported cases through that date, conversion % indicates Case peak as well
* #ovah
.
3/n
* Case 7DMA now in a precipitous drop, down to 41K. Confident in saying Case peak was 1/17
* 7DMA rate of decline now at 18%
* Going back to testing @ 1/16 and comparing to reported cases through that date, conversion % indicates Case peak as well
* #ovah
.
3/n
1/26 Hospitalizations - Part 1
As of 1/25:
* Admits 7DMA peak was 1/20, rate of growth (RoG) down to 0.8%. Officially nosed over
* General Census cresting & 1/26 very likely is 7DMA peak
* Census RoG down to 8.4%
* We will know in 2 days if I predicted it to the day
4/n
As of 1/25:
* Admits 7DMA peak was 1/20, rate of growth (RoG) down to 0.8%. Officially nosed over
* General Census cresting & 1/26 very likely is 7DMA peak
* Census RoG down to 8.4%
* We will know in 2 days if I predicted it to the day
4/n
1/26 Hospitalizations - Part 2
* To finish 4/n, the 1/20 Comp will be the date that determines if 1/26 is 7DMA peak. See chart #4 in 4/n
* ICU census at 2720 & cresting
* Vents also cresting at 1528. Both numbers at or below 2020 Winter wave pace despite 400% more cases
5/n
.
* To finish 4/n, the 1/20 Comp will be the date that determines if 1/26 is 7DMA peak. See chart #4 in 4/n
* ICU census at 2720 & cresting
* Vents also cresting at 1528. Both numbers at or below 2020 Winter wave pace despite 400% more cases
5/n
.
So by Friday, well know if my Hosp predictions hit on the nose. I also predicted on 1/18 that the 7DMA peak would be around 13,300 beds. I'll reply with that link.
Sad that part-time randos can figure this stuff out but the "experts" cannot.
6/end
Sad that part-time randos can figure this stuff out but the "experts" cannot.
6/end
https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1482120877399588873?s=20
Here was my 7DMA census peak prediction of 13,300K. Right now its 13,208. 1 thing I learned was never let holiday numbers influence you. I let MLK weekend cause me to move up my prediction by one day. #Iknowbetterthanthat #neverleaveyourwingman
7/ps
7/ps
https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1483442241750417417?s=20
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