Thread by @DrEricDing

📍My deepest fear is not just COVID—it’s the Russian🇷🇺 invasion of Ukraine🇺🇦—➡️it’s now very clear a full-scale invasion of eastern 🇺🇦 is likely imminent. Putin wants a major conflict—& based on @DAlperovitch’s A+ layout of 🇷🇺’s likely war plans—many innocent lives will be lost🧵

https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1485241734925897728

2) Russia will likely have complete air dominance over Ukraine very quickly — if US or NATO doesn’t act quickly. Ukraine by herself can’t possible stop Russian air superiority by itself. And slower NATO allied action, the faster eastern Ukraine will fall. Time is of the essence.

https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1485241747026452480

3) Russian air dominance using UAVs and electronic warfare will also be quite extensive. It may well be a 21st century’s first electronic blitzkrieg.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1485241748490276864

4) Folks who don’t know - @DAlperovitch is one of the world’s foremost experts on Eastern Europe—particularly on Russia. But he is a patriotic American citizen. He has been attacked by DJ Trump personally—if that weighs into how much Trump/Putin hate him—he knows Russian tactics.

https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1485241749920489474

5) @DAlperovitch is highly respected among national security circles, among top national security experts I know, and has been personally honored by DHS Secretary. He also has a @SAISHopkins security institute @alperovitch dedicated to him.

https://twitter.com/secmayorkas/status/1448627719567298562

6) I have nothing to gain. I don’t own any defense stocks or have a vested interest other than GLOBAL HEALTH and to save lives and avoid war. But the only way to do that is to be realistic and have the world prepare to stop the worst—to wake up that it’s not a Putin bluff.

https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1485241765753929733

7) to be clear, I want to STOP WAR. I hate wars, I hate excessive wasteful DOD spending. God I hate forever wars—I hate it more than Bernie hates it. Folks who follow me a long time know that I think being prepared is critical—and downplaying a looming crisis will be much worse.

8) to be clear, nobody wants a war with Russia. We should all want peace. But knowing that Russian invasion is highly probable (and we wake up to that likely reality), it changes strategic planning to strengthen Western Ukraine & protect its democratically elected govt.

9) To be clear—it means protecting Ukraine from having its constitution completely rewritten by Russia or its Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine. We want to avoid Ukraine becoming a puppet state of 🇷🇺 like Syria’s Assad. But most of all, we want to avoid loss of innocent lives.