Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review - 01/30/2022

1/13

With Joe’s blessing (#inflation no good for re-election bid), JPOW is hell bent on ↗️ rates and draining 👊🥣

Backward 👀 🧮 shows 4Q21 GDP +7.0% with +7.0% price deflator and #PCE +4.8%, a 40-year high, but…

2/n

… @AtlantaFed is nowcasting Q122 GPD estimate of +0.5% ↘️

With $CRB +15.9% 🚀 off December 1 lows, the evidence of #inflation ↘️ is thin.

That said, Fed WILL tighten into a GDP slow down as fiscal spend ↘️ markedly y/y 😱

Chart: $CRB at cycle highs. 🔝?

3/13

Hydrocarbons said 🖕to the Fed

$WTIC +1.97% (w) +15.44% (m)
$BRENT +3.0% (w) +16.41% (m)
$GASO +3.67% (w) +14.41% (m)
$NATGAS +22.75% (w) +24.4% (m)

(w = week, m = month = trade = t)

Chart: Natty ripped the face off the 🐻🐻

4/13

Grains were ↔️ on the week, with all but SUGAR ♉️ Trend (T)

$SOYB +3.95% (w) +9.76% (m)
$CORN +3.2% (w) +7.2% (m)
$WHEAT +0.8% (w) +2.0% (m)
$SUGAR -3.7% (w) -3.7% (m)
$COFFEE -0.84% (w) +4.4% (m)

Chart: $DBA +2.18% (m), +4.61% (T = 3 months) on + volume ♉️

5/13

Contrast hydrocarbons and grains with metals ↘️

$SILVER -8.3% (w) -4.5% (m)
$COPPER -4.7% (w) -3.35% (m)
$PLAT -2.75% (w) +4.2% (m)
$GOLD -2.47% (w) -2.3% (m)

Chart: Dr. $COPPER flipped back to 🐻 (T) -1.37%

6/13

Equity vol 🌊 accelerated to a 14-month high before closing (mostly) ↘️ on the week

$VIX 27.66 -4.12% (w) +50.6% (m)
$VXN 33.31 -2.2% (w) +57.1% (m)
$RVX 35.23 -2.81% (w) +49.3% (m)
$VXEEM 25.31 -8.3% (w) +31% (m)

Chart: $VIX touching a 14-month high on Monday 😱

7/13

After breaking bad last week and ↘️ hard into/after the Fed meeting, US equities closed ↔️ on the week.

$SPX +0.77% (w) -7.0% (m)
$COMPQ +0.01% (w) -12.0% (m)
$IWM -0.88% (w) -12.25% (m)

Chart: $SPX ♉️ 🔨 but 🐻 (T) -3.8%

8/13

Top US sectors
$XLE +5.09% (w) +18.25% (m)
$XLK +2.38% (w) -9.1% (m)
$XLF +1.36% (w) -0.85% (m)

Bottom sectors
$XLI -1.48% (w) -7.6% (m)
$XLY -1.29% (w) -12.9% (m)
$XLU -1.28% (w) -5.05% (m)

Chart: $XLE is the only sector ♉️ (t) and (T) +14.2%

9/13

Major internat’l indices ↘️ hard

$KOSPI -6.03% (w) -10.55% (m)
$HSI -5.67% (w) +0.65% (m)
$SSEC -4.57% (w) -7.65% (m)
$NIKK -2.92% (w) -7.2% (m)
$DAX -1.83% (w) -3.56% (m)
$CAC -1.45% (w) -2.6% (m)

Chart: $SSEC breaking bad ↘️ into 🇨🇳 New Year 🐯

10/13

Top Country ETFs = HE shorts
$EWZ +4.11% (w) +11.0% (m)
$RSX +1.78% (w) -12.15% (m)
$EWU +0.12% (w) +1.80% (m)

Worst Country ETFs
$FXI -5.38% (w) -1.04% (m)
$EWY -5.26% (w) -9.35% (m)
$EWN -3.92% (w) -10.2% (m)

Chart: $EWZ is ♉️ (t) +10.97% and (T) +6.25%

11/13

With Fed signaling imminent 👊🥣↘️, the $UST2Y continued to explode ↗️ with the long end ↘️ = 🥞 yield curve

2Y 1.172 +15.6%
5Y 1.621 +4.9 BPS
10Y 1.778 +0.7 BPS
30Y 2.081 -0.4 BPS

10/2s 0.606 BPS, -14.6 BPS
305s 0.46 BPS, -5.3 BPS

Chart: $UST2Y 🚀 to new cycle high

11a/13

The $MOVE 🌊 85.29 remains elevated 🛗

12/13

With tighter monetary conditions, the $USD 🚀 to an 18-mo high

$USD +1.7% (w) +1.75% (m)
$GBP -1.11% (w) -0.9% (m)
$EUR -1.7% (w) -2.0% (m)
$AUD -2.37% (w) -3.7% (m)

Chart: $USD +3.35% (T)

12a/13

Chart: $AUD is headed towards 🎯 of 0.665/USD

13/13

Let’s be clear 👊🥣 removal is super 🐻 for risk assets, but until $CRB breaks ↘️, we have to consider this a #stagflation #Quad3 market

Expecting a short-term bounce 🏀 early this week in equities. #STFR and look for 🛢 to roll ↘️

Have a super profitable 💰 week!