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Jan 31 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
With the apparent early stages of a Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) mobilisation, this news is alarming. Kadyrov's Chechen paramilitaries ("Kadyrovtsy") would be used in areas taken by Russian ground forces to "mop up" and terrorise Ukrainian patriots into fleeing.
In 2014, Ramzan Kadyrov promised to send 74,000 Chechen fighters to eastern Ukraine to "bring order" there. Those few he did send cooperated with the pro-Russian "LPR" and "DPR" militias. Image
Photo of some of the 300-strong Chechen "Death Battalion" Kadyrovtsy fighters who fought in and around Donetsk for five months on the side of the pro-Russian forces in 2014-2015. Image
Moscow's puppet, the DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko, issued orders for his men to execute and deport Kadyrov's men after they assumed too much power and began fighting with DPR militiamen. The exact numbers of Kadyrovtsy operating in the Donbas remains unknown.

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More from @Andy_Scollick

Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 2
Some people talk about a possible full-scale or mass invasion of Ukraine, which is less likely. Others recognise that a number of small-scale operations with well-defined objectives are more likely. However, some imply that such operations will be less damaging and deadly. 1/ 🧵 Image
Yet, when we look at what possible smaller, well-defined (below mass invasion and occupation threshold) operations could include, we must accept that Ukraine is at risk of great social and economic damage. 2/
1. The 2012 Russian General Staff plan (itself a revision of a 2008 plan) to seize Crimea and create a "Fortress Crimea" power projection platform to dominate the Black Sea Region remains unfinished. It requires full flank protection. 3/
Read 19 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 2
Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) has not received any information from Russia regarding new location of military exercises. Oireachtas Committee on Foreign Affairs to question Russian Ambassador Yuri Filatov rte.ie/news/politics/…
Sinn Féin's Defence spokesperson @SorcaClarke_TD said the questioning of Filatov will focus on Russia's decision to relocate its naval vessels outside of Ireland's economic zone.
Ms Clarke said the committee will need to have confirmation of the new route, and a commitment that the vessels remain visible to Irish Defence Forces at all times if they are in Ireland's economic zone.
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jan 31
Make sense to you?

“There is no need for mobilization in terms of the current threat. If we announce a training mobilization, it will cause panic in the streets. Everyone would consider that we knew something and concealed information that the enemy would attack tomorrow.”
No, me neither. uatv.ua/en/no-need-for…
“In terms of quantity of the soldiers of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, we are talking about a conditional 110,000 ground-to-ground component. Let us add the airborne and marine components, it would amount to 120,000-125,000 soldiers along the entire border ..
Read 6 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jan 22
Russian naval missile firing 'test' 240km off Ireland's southwest coast on 3 February

Should we be concerned? 🧵 thetimes.co.uk/article/571428…
First, it is important not to be alarmist.

However, given the dire strategic situation regarding the threat of large-scale Russian offensive actions against Ukraine, and the timing, this is an alarming development.
Clearly, this is part of Russia's ratcheting up of tensions in the overall context of its "demands" that the US and NATO back off not only from Ukraine, but also from eastern Europe in general.
Read 20 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jan 22
'The Russian military has announced that it will conduct a naval artillery exercise 240km off the southwest coast of Cork in two weeks as fears grow about the risk of conflict in Ukraine.' thetimes.co.uk/article/571428…
'The Irish Defence Forces and the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) were informed last night of the planned exercise, which will be within Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), on February 3.'
'The Department of Foreign Affairs was also told through official channels of a planned “surface gun exercise”.

The number of warships that will take part is not known but military experts said it was likely to involve a task group of three to five warships.'
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jan 21
Zelenskyy's statement, unfortunately, is not as outlandish as some may think. Milint have warned since Sept 2015 that Russian 20th Combined Arms Army then 1st Guards Tank Army have been training for shock assault & urban warfare under the General Staff codename "Kharkiv Scenario"
Read 6 tweets

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