The galaxy brain version of popularism would say liberalism's biggest challenge is that it's no longer especially democratic in a deeper, Dewey-ian sort of way
For all the talk about illiberal democracy, there's a lot to be said for 'undemocratic liberalism' as a challenge in America today--from both the left and the right's point of view.
The left's fear of undemocratic liberalism is fairly obvious, since it's about democratic institutions: they worry about minority rule, subversion, suppression and so on somewhat more than they worry about an end to the First Amendment or something
The right's fear of undemocratic liberalism is less obvious--it's not minority rule in elections, but a different sort of minority rule where a technocratic and cultural liberal elite decides what can be said online, what kinds learn in school, whether you need a vaccine etc.
(This is entirely leaving aside the Trumpist version of undemocratic liberalism, where democracy is dead and the election was stolen)
Where popularists and the non-Trumpist conservatives wind up agreeing, tho, is that liberalism has lost its connection to mass politics, thanks to growing educational polarization, the decline of unions/urban machines and class conflict and elite interest group power
And you can occasionally see it my Twitter replies over the last month; a striking number of replies say some version of 'who cares about what the public thinks' we must do x,y,z. Fair enough, but that kind of undemocratic governing instinct does pose risks!
Popularists posit themselves as a partial solution to this problem, by adding a poll-driven filter to progressive politics. But it's ultimately still a politics by and for college educated progressives--just one that tries not to offend the rest so often.
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Over at the Morning, @DLeonhardt is going back and forth a bit with @paulkrugman about why consumer confidence is low, despite a growing economy.
They have two theories; I'll add a third
Krugman notes the inflation numbers aren't *so* bad that it should mean consumer confidence is *this* low.
I do agree with that premise.
If you fit a quick model of consumer confidence as a function of inflation, gdp, income, and unemployment, you'd guess that consumer confidence should be 10-15 points higher or so, depending on model specification. A fairly large gap (truth is red; est is black)
I think this is true, but to me the more surprising phenomenon of the last year is how... long it has taken for Democrats and progressives to readjust their expectations
This last line here--about an inability to acknowledge that there were real limitations--really resonates with my experiences and I have to say that it caught me by surprise
One maybe related phenomenon is the growing alignment between ideology and what I'll call the pragmatism-v-idealism dimension of politics among Democrats, which has really taken off since '15 or so
Biden was supposed to be FDR.
Instead, he's following the playbook of the last half century of politically unsuccessful Democratic presidencies, from LBJ and Clinton to Obama.
The result: only 33% say he's focused on the issues they care about nytimes.com/2022/01/21/us/…
I cited this recent CBS/YouGov poll several times, and I think it's worth taking a look at if you missed it.
Public opinion isn't always straightforward, but Biden's situation isn't really all that complicated cbsnews.com/news/biden-inf…
tbh Biden hasn't had any difficulty passing legislation that's aimed at dealing with immediate challenges / that has a chance to help him politically
There will be a lot of questions about whether there was another path if Congress doesn't pass voting rights.
But given the path they did take (hope Manchinenma crack), I do think the timing and duration of the push--after 1/6 anniversary, around MLK day--seems pretty optimal
While other legislative strategies would benefit from being earlier in the cycle, when Biden's political capital was at its highest and before the issue was politicized, getting Manchinema to 'crack' probably did require a longer campaign
And if your strategy ultimately just involves hoping they eventually see the light, the timing around 1/6 and MLK day is about as much as you can ask
Twitter, as you know, is not real life. But what happens on Twitter is not isolated from reality.
A Sanders/Warren left may not be a majority of Dems, but it's real/important! You can tell on Twitter.
On Twitter today, you can tell COVID politics have shifted, even decisively
Today, you can see a sizable and increasingly passionate *intra-Democratic* fight on COVID. Obama-era Dem stalwarts--think, other Nate or Yglesias--are in revolt against COVID emergency precautions.
And OTOH, there's still a vigorous group arguing for strong measures
Twitter, again, is not real life. For ex: IDK the size of these factions in the Dem electorate.
But for national political purposes, a vigorous intra-D elite fight on COVID tells you all you need to know about the politics at this point: it's shifted against emergency measures
This is a state Biden won by 30. I'm not saying Republicans should be grateful that they get districts, but no one should have any illusions about what a real gerrymander would mean for the CA GOP
There are lots of angry people insisting that California is a gerrymander. They don't even feel the need to argue it, because they think it's so obvious. (i think it's obvious the other way)
So before I explain my case, let me ask: why do you think California is a gerrymander?