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Nate Cohn Profile picture
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Jan 26 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I think this is true, but to me the more surprising phenomenon of the last year is how... long it has taken for Democrats and progressives to readjust their expectations
This last line here--about an inability to acknowledge that there were real limitations--really resonates with my experiences and I have to say that it caught me by surprise
One maybe related phenomenon is the growing alignment between ideology and what I'll call the pragmatism-v-idealism dimension of politics among Democrats, which has really taken off since '15 or so
I mean, there are two halves there: the center of the party, in an effort to maintain coalition unity/to appeal to a party shifting left, has framed basically all of its ideological concerns as pragmatic ones

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
Jan 21
Biden was supposed to be FDR.
Instead, he's following the playbook of the last half century of politically unsuccessful Democratic presidencies, from LBJ and Clinton to Obama.
The result: only 33% say he's focused on the issues they care about
nytimes.com/2022/01/21/us/…
I cited this recent CBS/YouGov poll several times, and I think it's worth taking a look at if you missed it.
Public opinion isn't always straightforward, but Biden's situation isn't really all that complicated
cbsnews.com/news/biden-inf…
tbh Biden hasn't had any difficulty passing legislation that's aimed at dealing with immediate challenges / that has a chance to help him politically
Read 18 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Jan 13
There will be a lot of questions about whether there was another path if Congress doesn't pass voting rights.
But given the path they did take (hope Manchinenma crack), I do think the timing and duration of the push--after 1/6 anniversary, around MLK day--seems pretty optimal
While other legislative strategies would benefit from being earlier in the cycle, when Biden's political capital was at its highest and before the issue was politicized, getting Manchinema to 'crack' probably did require a longer campaign
And if your strategy ultimately just involves hoping they eventually see the light, the timing around 1/6 and MLK day is about as much as you can ask
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Jan 6
Twitter, as you know, is not real life. But what happens on Twitter is not isolated from reality.
A Sanders/Warren left may not be a majority of Dems, but it's real/important! You can tell on Twitter.
On Twitter today, you can tell COVID politics have shifted, even decisively
Today, you can see a sizable and increasingly passionate *intra-Democratic* fight on COVID. Obama-era Dem stalwarts--think, other Nate or Yglesias--are in revolt against COVID emergency precautions.
And OTOH, there's still a vigorous group arguing for strong measures
Twitter, again, is not real life. For ex: IDK the size of these factions in the Dem electorate.
But for national political purposes, a vigorous intra-D elite fight on COVID tells you all you need to know about the politics at this point: it's shifted against emergency measures
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Dec 29, 2021
For the handful of you complaining that the commission-drawn California map is a gerrymander
This is a state Biden won by 30. I'm not saying Republicans should be grateful that they get districts, but no one should have any illusions about what a real gerrymander would mean for the CA GOP
There are lots of angry people insisting that California is a gerrymander. They don't even feel the need to argue it, because they think it's so obvious. (i think it's obvious the other way)
So before I explain my case, let me ask: why do you think California is a gerrymander?
Read 23 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Dec 29, 2021
I broadly agree with this, though I'd add one additional twist on how to think about redistricting by seat: whether we're comparing to the actual outcome in 2020 or a hypothetical expected outcome on the old map in 2022
Take VA, for instance.
Dave treats this as an R+1 shift, since Dems aren't favored to hold VA-2 (which is true).
But they probably would have won VA-2 in 2020 (this is still a Biden CD). So I'm not sure I'd call this a loss due to redistricting
And on the other hand, Democrats might have been underdogs in both VA-2/7 on the old map in '22. By that forward looking measure, one could say the Democrats might be favored to gain a seat due to redistricting
Read 9 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
Dec 27, 2021
It seems people are struggling to believe this @EricLevitz piece, based on @Wertwhile analysis, so let me add a few hard numbers to help clarify
Take the 'mean-median gap', maybe the very simplest measure of whether a party will struggle to translate their popular majority into a congressional majority.
Across the 241 districts drawn so far, the mean-median gap is 0.00, down from R+2.4 in these same states in 2020 pres.
So, to this point, the map is not simply 'not as bad' for Democrats as feared. The first 241 districts so far are basically fair, thanks to a mix of both Democratic and Republican gerrymandering cancelling the other out
Read 9 tweets

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