There will be a lot of questions about whether there was another path if Congress doesn't pass voting rights.
But given the path they did take (hope Manchinenma crack), I do think the timing and duration of the push--after 1/6 anniversary, around MLK day--seems pretty optimal
While other legislative strategies would benefit from being earlier in the cycle, when Biden's political capital was at its highest and before the issue was politicized, getting Manchinema to 'crack' probably did require a longer campaign
And if your strategy ultimately just involves hoping they eventually see the light, the timing around 1/6 and MLK day is about as much as you can ask
So while there are obviously plenty of questions about the strategy itself, it's not immediately obvious to me whether their execution of it could have/should have been much different

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Nate_Cohn

6 Jan
Twitter, as you know, is not real life. But what happens on Twitter is not isolated from reality.
A Sanders/Warren left may not be a majority of Dems, but it's real/important! You can tell on Twitter.
On Twitter today, you can tell COVID politics have shifted, even decisively
Today, you can see a sizable and increasingly passionate *intra-Democratic* fight on COVID. Obama-era Dem stalwarts--think, other Nate or Yglesias--are in revolt against COVID emergency precautions.
And OTOH, there's still a vigorous group arguing for strong measures
Twitter, again, is not real life. For ex: IDK the size of these factions in the Dem electorate.
But for national political purposes, a vigorous intra-D elite fight on COVID tells you all you need to know about the politics at this point: it's shifted against emergency measures
Read 7 tweets
29 Dec 21
For the handful of you complaining that the commission-drawn California map is a gerrymander
This is a state Biden won by 30. I'm not saying Republicans should be grateful that they get districts, but no one should have any illusions about what a real gerrymander would mean for the CA GOP
There are lots of angry people insisting that California is a gerrymander. They don't even feel the need to argue it, because they think it's so obvious. (i think it's obvious the other way)
So before I explain my case, let me ask: why do you think California is a gerrymander?
Read 23 tweets
29 Dec 21
I broadly agree with this, though I'd add one additional twist on how to think about redistricting by seat: whether we're comparing to the actual outcome in 2020 or a hypothetical expected outcome on the old map in 2022
Take VA, for instance.
Dave treats this as an R+1 shift, since Dems aren't favored to hold VA-2 (which is true).
But they probably would have won VA-2 in 2020 (this is still a Biden CD). So I'm not sure I'd call this a loss due to redistricting
And on the other hand, Democrats might have been underdogs in both VA-2/7 on the old map in '22. By that forward looking measure, one could say the Democrats might be favored to gain a seat due to redistricting
Read 9 tweets
27 Dec 21
It seems people are struggling to believe this @EricLevitz piece, based on @Wertwhile analysis, so let me add a few hard numbers to help clarify
Take the 'mean-median gap', maybe the very simplest measure of whether a party will struggle to translate their popular majority into a congressional majority.
Across the 241 districts drawn so far, the mean-median gap is 0.00, down from R+2.4 in these same states in 2020 pres.
So, to this point, the map is not simply 'not as bad' for Democrats as feared. The first 241 districts so far are basically fair, thanks to a mix of both Democratic and Republican gerrymandering cancelling the other out
Read 9 tweets
27 Dec 21
I think this piece is broadly right, but a lot of what looks like a huge surprise in redistricting comes from two separate measures of the effect of redistricting: change in party control v. change in PVI nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Take NV. It had a 3-1 Dem delegation in '20; it will have a 3-1 map in '21. No change, as expected before redistricting.
But the districts got quite a bit stronger for Democrats.
In '20, it was 3-1 to the right of the national vote, now it's 3-1 to the left.
Before redistricting, most of the analysis was done in terms of that former measure--expected seat flips.
Now that we have actual districts, most of the analysis is being done with the latter.
Read 10 tweets
23 Dec 21
I think there's a lot to agree with here, especially if you're still optimistic about BBB's prospects.
The better question is why it feels that Biden's accomplished so little
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
The rescue package really stands out for me in that regard. Doesn't really feel like Biden/Democrats already spent $2tn in party line spending this year, does it?
I don't remember the backstory on why the CTC wasn't made permanent at that point, but that's an example of how it could have done more. Or maybe they could have gotten paid leave in there (framed as making sure people can take off work if they test positive)
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(