Phenomenal work Brad!👏

You should start calling these "Ultra Deep Dives". Learnt a lot of new things, especially on the securitization & Capital Market activity topics.
With $UPST, on one hand we have an emerging credit underwriting model which has proven itself so far (w.r.t increased access, lower defaults, more automation), good data driven Mgmt along with good Financials. Plenty of expected growth with Bank partner expansion& new products.
On the other side, we have a credit/liquidity dependent Business model (with non recurring Revenues) which hasn't been thru a full credit/monetary/economic cycle. Some key personnel risk. Also the performance/growth in new products is yet to be shown.
It's going to be very interesting to see how this Company evolves - if it can be like $SHOP for lot more smaller Banks/Credit unions taking away the grunt work, or stumble post COVID/Monetary expansion due to unforeseen issues in Lending models in a different credit environment.
Based on the current data, I'm leaning more towards the former and position sized accordingly, with an option to always add more as more results/clarity comes along in the next few qtrs.

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More from @RamBhupatiraju

Feb 1
"Words of Investing Wisdom" published by Value Investor Insight in late 2008 is a highly valuable document worth reading once an year by investors of all types. Comes in very handy during good and bad times.

cc: @dmuthuk @saxena_puru @Gautam__Baid

csinvesting.org/wp-content/upl… Image
Tons of accumulated wisdom on these topics

✔️Finding an Edge
✔️Field of Play
✔️Uncovering Value
✔️Research & Analysis
✔️Portfolio Management
✔️Learning Curve
✔️Of Sound Mind
✔️The Craft of Investing
Compilation of my fav quotes ⬇️ Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 24
On days like this morning, Markets (& Media) want us to be the deer in the headlights. Scared and frozen.

I prefer to mimic Ted Williams, stepping up & hitting my sweet spots (ignoring the noise, opportunistically adding to some of my favs).

Added to
$ETSY at $138
$SE at $136 Image
Market is acting as if even good/established E-Commerce Cos are toast. I'll take the opposite bet for the long-term please.

$ETSY At ~30 times EBITDA, I'll take my chances with this one.

$SE At ~76B Mkt cap for this juggernaut, I'll take few more plz.
Few more Cos I came this🤏close to adding (a couple of them) before the Market came to its senses😕. Maybe on another crazy day.

$RBLX at $61
$ROKU at $142
$TWLO at $178
$TDOC at $68
Read 12 tweets
Jan 20
Some see it as picking pennies in front of a bulldozer (buying beaten down growth stocks now, with so much Macro uncertainty ahead).

Some see it as planting the seeds now for good results later (buying into quality/growth Cos, buying w.r.t intrinsic value, with a 3-5 yr view). Image
If you know yourself well (i.e competence, goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, conviction, accountability, ability to tune out noise, clear head & strong stomach), next few months will be pretty interesting time for individual stock picking in your areas of interest/competence.
All that time spent online arguing about the Macro or defending your strategy & picks is better spent if you shut out the noise and dive into the actual companies/sectors (that you would want to buy for the long-term, if the Market continues to you opportunities).
Read 7 tweets
Jan 15
One more Saturday of going into $COST not to spend more than $100 and coming out with a $300 bill. 🤦‍♂️What's new?

(Also some food sampling & peeking into other carts involved).
Do you want 14oz for $4 or 18oz for $14? Savings or convenience? Choose quick. 🙂
Anyway, $COST is one company I regret for not owning long enough as a pick for steady growth part of my portfolio.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 14
Ready for some chart crimes? I'm going to show 10 charts & come to the conclusions that prove my point. Haha.. just kidding, but I do want to share some interesting stuff.

Metric mainly being used is Gross Profit/EV Yield (LTM). Used @KoyfinCharts for these.
Yes I'm aware that there's a mile wide gap between Gross Profit and FCF, but a good GM margin along with huge yrly growth affords the company to spend on OPEX (hopefully spending in the right areas) while building a durable company & getting towards sustainable FCF generation.
Although I have used EV/GP/NTM growth before, I haven't used the inverted metric (LTM) to see what yield we're getting on the GP (unlike the FCF yield used on mature companies).
Read 19 tweets
Jan 14
Over the next few weeks, the high Macro uncertainty along with Q4 results (surprises & over-reactions) is sure to create some very interesting opportunities to initiate or slowly increase positions in some of these growth sectors if you understand them well.
✔️Time to put the head down
✔️Tune out the random online opinions (comparisons to 2000-02, how much pain there is ahead....)
✔️Focus on each business based on it's own merit
✔️Do the things that are in the best long term interest of your Portfolio.
That is if we can

✔️Tune out the noise while still giving enough importance to the major Macro factors

✔️have good understanding and high conviction in those growth companies
Read 6 tweets

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