With $UPST, on one hand we have an emerging credit underwriting model which has proven itself so far (w.r.t increased access, lower defaults, more automation), good data driven Mgmt along with good Financials. Plenty of expected growth with Bank partner expansion& new products.
On the other side, we have a credit/liquidity dependent Business model (with non recurring Revenues) which hasn't been thru a full credit/monetary/economic cycle. Some key personnel risk. Also the performance/growth in new products is yet to be shown.
It's going to be very interesting to see how this Company evolves - if it can be like $SHOP for lot more smaller Banks/Credit unions taking away the grunt work, or stumble post COVID/Monetary expansion due to unforeseen issues in Lending models in a different credit environment.
Based on the current data, I'm leaning more towards the former and position sized accordingly, with an option to always add more as more results/clarity comes along in the next few qtrs.
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"Words of Investing Wisdom" published by Value Investor Insight in late 2008 is a highly valuable document worth reading once an year by investors of all types. Comes in very handy during good and bad times.
✔️Finding an Edge
✔️Field of Play
✔️Uncovering Value
✔️Research & Analysis
✔️Portfolio Management
✔️Learning Curve
✔️Of Sound Mind
✔️The Craft of Investing
Some see it as picking pennies in front of a bulldozer (buying beaten down growth stocks now, with so much Macro uncertainty ahead).
Some see it as planting the seeds now for good results later (buying into quality/growth Cos, buying w.r.t intrinsic value, with a 3-5 yr view).
If you know yourself well (i.e competence, goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, conviction, accountability, ability to tune out noise, clear head & strong stomach), next few months will be pretty interesting time for individual stock picking in your areas of interest/competence.
All that time spent online arguing about the Macro or defending your strategy & picks is better spent if you shut out the noise and dive into the actual companies/sectors (that you would want to buy for the long-term, if the Market continues to you opportunities).
Ready for some chart crimes? I'm going to show 10 charts & come to the conclusions that prove my point. Haha.. just kidding, but I do want to share some interesting stuff.
Metric mainly being used is Gross Profit/EV Yield (LTM). Used @KoyfinCharts for these.
Yes I'm aware that there's a mile wide gap between Gross Profit and FCF, but a good GM margin along with huge yrly growth affords the company to spend on OPEX (hopefully spending in the right areas) while building a durable company & getting towards sustainable FCF generation.
Although I have used EV/GP/NTM growth before, I haven't used the inverted metric (LTM) to see what yield we're getting on the GP (unlike the FCF yield used on mature companies).
Over the next few weeks, the high Macro uncertainty along with Q4 results (surprises & over-reactions) is sure to create some very interesting opportunities to initiate or slowly increase positions in some of these growth sectors if you understand them well.
✔️Time to put the head down
✔️Tune out the random online opinions (comparisons to 2000-02, how much pain there is ahead....)
✔️Focus on each business based on it's own merit
✔️Do the things that are in the best long term interest of your Portfolio.
That is if we can
✔️Tune out the noise while still giving enough importance to the major Macro factors
✔️have good understanding and high conviction in those growth companies