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Feb 1 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
"As the junta attempts to forcibly bring the country under its control, it has inadvertently united many of Myanmar's diverse groups against it."

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Feb1Coup

edition.cnn.com/2022/01/31/asi…
KNDF: "We will take back step by step, slow and slowly," he said. "We will continue, day by day. We are getting stronger. We are winning day by day."

@YeMyoHein5 : "In the past, their strategy and objective was how to control the country. Now they are focused on how survive."
@khinsandarwin: "I have never seen this kind if unity in our history... We believe that we will win this time. We never think we will lose ... Whether we die or whether you die, this is our slogan,"
@hcregan 🙏

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More from @Kim_Jolliffe

Kim Jolliffe Profile picture
Feb 1
THREAD

UN Special Envoy calls for non-military-led dialogue with all parties to agree a power sharing agreement as first step towards long-term military transformation.

Reasonable common sense suggestions but lack attention to practical realities...

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
This is exactly what the UN has been calling for since the 1990s (at least) and what has been consistently blocked & avoided by the military.

This is not an accident. The military could not be more explicit. It knows what is best for Myanmar and its power cannot be questioned.
The closest Myanmar has come to power sharing is the '08 constitution.

The SLORC/SPDC held National Convention but dominated proceedings like a petulant monarchy, offended everyone, took no one elses suggestions and - of course - did not let the UN anywhere near the process.
Read 23 tweets
Kim Jolliffe Profile picture
Oct 13, 2021
THREAD on #Myanmar army sending 2 large convoys (80+ trucks each with armoured vehicle escort) to Chin State.

- HUGE human rights / humnitarian concern

- Potential int' security concern for #India

- Unlikely to be strategic victory for MM military

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
This is a relatively small unit of troops. Report say max. 120 trucks. If 25 men per truck, that is 3,000 troops.

I'd expect only a handful of support personnel (comms, medics, intelligence) for every 100 and they will be greatly isolated, hens the long, high-profile journey
MAJOR THREAT that this relatively weak and poorly supported infantry force will lean into Tatmadaw strategem #1:

Abuse, terrorise, destabilise and disperse the local population, destroying food stores, clearing people from the region, and instilling terror in those who remain.
Read 18 tweets
Kim Jolliffe Profile picture
Oct 11, 2021
The best book I have read on any aspect of local governance in #Myanmar.

Deep ethnography by local and int researchers on how actually justice works, mostly outside of the official courts where local leaders, EAOs and others fil void.
It is a must read for understanding how governance is patchworked & why village/ward level is so important.

Written pre-coup but is deeply relevant post-coup as the governance and security environment becomes more fragmented and "mixed" in many areas.

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Also covers customary and ethnic justice practices, in Karen Mon, Naga and Pa-O communities, who - in different ways - handle justice affairs locally without the official state system.

Much needed to go beyond the imaginary and simplistic EAO-controlled / gov-controlled binary.
Read 4 tweets
Kim Jolliffe Profile picture
Sep 9, 2021
Critical story on a US gun enthusiast using faux CIA credentials to train #Myanmar activists in highly problematic methods, including home-made indiscriminate weapons.

Some of my thoughts below 👇

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar #Sep9Coup

newnaratif.com/dr-sasa-visits…
Activists and political leaders underwent an extremely difficult decision-making process in March and April, deciding whether to take up arms.

They received no protection from anyone, and the zero sum nature of the SAC's agenda meant it was 'fight, be arrested/killed, or flee'
Myanmar has suffered unimaginable violence for decades, not because of parochial conflicts, competing economic agendas or sectrarian divides.

But because of a particularly peverse and violent institution that controls nearly everything and never compromises with anyone.
Read 13 tweets
Kim Jolliffe Profile picture
Sep 8, 2021
KNU Chairperson of Dooplaya District (southern Karen State) has requested NUG withdraw its declaration of war.

He is "terrified" of exepcted impacts on civilians and calls for political talks.

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Sep8Coup

kicnews.org/2021/09/nug-%E…
Worth noting that ppl in Dooplaya probably suffered more than any other Karen district after DKBA formed in 1995 and the constant fighting, forced labour, land confiscation and other abuses that followed.
Ceasefires brought dramatic improvements to security and well-being and relative peace and stability between the Karen groups allowed huge advancements in rebuilding Kawthoolei governance systems, laws etc. alongside improved economy etc.
Read 4 tweets
Kim Jolliffe Profile picture
Jun 16, 2021
THREAD

As #Myanmar Army burns villages in Sagaing...

Let's discuss the 'four cuts' strategy and community resilience to it

4 cuts is NOT about cutting resources to civilians. No.

Civilians ARE the resource that is being cut.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
myanmar-now.org/mm/news/7124
I have seen many posts lately framing food or water blockaids to civilians as 4 cuts (Phyet-Lay-Phyet)

It is all connected, but '4 cuts' is something much more evil.

'4 cuts' aims to cut off civilian support to armed groups, by displacing, killing and terrorising the civilians
There are disagreements about what the '4 cuts' actually are.

Many scholars have claimed the aim is to stop civilians from providing 4 things - often choosing 4 from food, funding, resources, recruits, sancturary, intelligence.

(It is all these things - take your pick.)
Read 19 tweets

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