THREAD
UN Special Envoy calls for non-military-led dialogue with all parties to agree a power sharing agreement as first step towards long-term military transformation.
Reasonable common sense suggestions but lack attention to practical realities...
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
UN Special Envoy calls for non-military-led dialogue with all parties to agree a power sharing agreement as first step towards long-term military transformation.
Reasonable common sense suggestions but lack attention to practical realities...
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
https://twitter.com/MayWongCNA/status/1488184246933983232
This is exactly what the UN has been calling for since the 1990s (at least) and what has been consistently blocked & avoided by the military.
This is not an accident. The military could not be more explicit. It knows what is best for Myanmar and its power cannot be questioned.
This is not an accident. The military could not be more explicit. It knows what is best for Myanmar and its power cannot be questioned.
The closest Myanmar has come to power sharing is the '08 constitution.
The SLORC/SPDC held National Convention but dominated proceedings like a petulant monarchy, offended everyone, took no one elses suggestions and - of course - did not let the UN anywhere near the process.
The SLORC/SPDC held National Convention but dominated proceedings like a petulant monarchy, offended everyone, took no one elses suggestions and - of course - did not let the UN anywhere near the process.
The NLD was harrassed, frozen out and eventually boycotted it. The EAOs that took part had their requests rejected.
The resulting constitution was entirely a military creation, designed to give the generals complete autonomy in security affairs and inordinate political power.
The resulting constitution was entirely a military creation, designed to give the generals complete autonomy in security affairs and inordinate political power.
Nonetheless, both the democracy opposition and majority of EAOs applied the same logic as Dr. Heyzer and committed everything to working within this arrangement as a first step, putting trust in a long-term process of reform. They were unbelievably cooperative and patient.
The NLD and other parties agreed to run in elections and enter the legislature and executive despite constant surveillance, asassinations, infiltration of judiciary etc.
People also criticised NLD for inflexibility and poor communication, but we should now put it in perspective
People also criticised NLD for inflexibility and poor communication, but we should now put it in perspective
All significant EAOs (20+) were fully in the peace process from 2013-2015.
They ALL had ceasefires or agreed to sign NCA and all agreed to join political dialogue for "power sharing"
At last min, MAH banned AA/TNLA/MNDAA and told UWSA it could only join dialogue if signed NCA
They ALL had ceasefires or agreed to sign NCA and all agreed to join political dialogue for "power sharing"
At last min, MAH banned AA/TNLA/MNDAA and told UWSA it could only join dialogue if signed NCA
That was the beginning of the end of the NCA.
These precisely calculated shifts in position forced the northern EAOs + KNPP/NMSP into impossible dilemmas vis-a-vis alliances, existing agreements and public relations.
Pol dialogue went ahead but all meaningful topics blocked
These precisely calculated shifts in position forced the northern EAOs + KNPP/NMSP into impossible dilemmas vis-a-vis alliances, existing agreements and public relations.
Pol dialogue went ahead but all meaningful topics blocked
[The above doesn't even begin to capture how artful the military has been at evading real dialogue. I can't begin to count the meetings where EAO & parties would prepare detailed points only to be met by blank faces, last min cancellations or news that their HQ was just bombed!]
Meanwhile under article 20 of the constitution, the military could commit daily unthinkablly violent acts against civilians with impunity.
Against #Rohingya they burned over 200 villages, killed more than 10,000 people and raped thousands more without a single check or balance
Against #Rohingya they burned over 200 villages, killed more than 10,000 people and raped thousands more without a single check or balance
Despite all these issues, the vast number of other stakeholders stuck with Dr. Heyzer's logic that this could be a first step towards long-term change.
ASSK committed so fully to non-confrontational "national reconciliation" that she abandoned ethnic allies and Rohingya
ASSK committed so fully to non-confrontational "national reconciliation" that she abandoned ethnic allies and Rohingya
Similarly, the blocs from all EAOs that pursued dialogue and trust building - mostly seeing it as the least worst option to reduce bloodshed - lost favour from much of the public and were regularly accused of corruption.
Can EAOs or NLD point to any concrete political gains?
Can EAOs or NLD point to any concrete political gains?
Nonetheless, even this obscenely uneven "power sharing" deal was not enough for Min Aung Hlaing.
He crossed a rubicon when he put 100+ years criminal charges on ASSK.
And he remains committed to this 'all or nothing' gambit.
Tell him no and he digs in harder. Every time.
He crossed a rubicon when he put 100+ years criminal charges on ASSK.
And he remains committed to this 'all or nothing' gambit.
Tell him no and he digs in harder. Every time.
The point of all this is not to say one side is all good and one side is all bad.
It is to say this is not about sides.
It is about a specific systemic block on all progress towards peace and towards the inclusive politics needed to keep the union together.
It is to say this is not about sides.
It is about a specific systemic block on all progress towards peace and towards the inclusive politics needed to keep the union together.
That systemic block is the swollen tumor of an institution that calls itself Tatmadaw.
An institution that is deep in bed with a small cabal of cronies and a shady network of Buddhist nationalist extremists.
An institution that just destroys, never adapts & doesn't switch off.
An institution that is deep in bed with a small cabal of cronies and a shady network of Buddhist nationalist extremists.
An institution that just destroys, never adapts & doesn't switch off.
Nobody can say the NLD, the EAOs or any other faction is ALL good.
But not one of them has tens thousands of unhinged rapists, arsonists and killers trapped in a bureacracy whose only objectives are to accumulate power, eliminate opposition, spread hate and collect profits
But not one of them has tens thousands of unhinged rapists, arsonists and killers trapped in a bureacracy whose only objectives are to accumulate power, eliminate opposition, spread hate and collect profits
Myanmar is in an unprecedented situation where the majority of genuine political stakeholders are already in a "power sharing" dialogue and are all focused on removing the tumour.
All talk of dialogue by UN or others must start with this existing process (NUCC, PA etc.).
All talk of dialogue by UN or others must start with this existing process (NUCC, PA etc.).
The UN should also recognise that the chances of the SAC entering talks with any other objective than dividing and eventually destroying opponents are now at zero
The UN risks dividing the existing coalition & unleashing a much more fractured conflict if it gives SAC this plan B
The UN risks dividing the existing coalition & unleashing a much more fractured conflict if it gives SAC this plan B
This will only change if the SAC is brought to its knees and forced to negotiate from a very weak position.
Even then, it will never negotiate in good faith and would need to be heavily constrained.
UN & others should focus now on pressuring SAC into this kind of position
Even then, it will never negotiate in good faith and would need to be heavily constrained.
UN & others should focus now on pressuring SAC into this kind of position
It is simply not true that the junta is "currently in control", as Dr. Heyzer claims and this is perhaps the root of the entire misframing around dialogue
The SAC cannot enforce laws, it cannot charge taxes or bills and it cannot provide services.
It is just a terrorist group.
The SAC cannot enforce laws, it cannot charge taxes or bills and it cannot provide services.
It is just a terrorist group.
It is not hyperbolic to suggest that the Spring Revolution can win or that other EAOs, militia, companies and regional stakeholders will readily abandon SAC when the time comes.
The politics within the revolution are where the UN and others should prioritise engagement
The politics within the revolution are where the UN and others should prioritise engagement
Even in the wild card event of an SAC split or sudden release of ASSK, the NUCC and the People's Assembly will remain the most relevant and inclusive dialogue forums for negotiation of a political deal that the majority of actors will commit to.
I humbly suggest that Dr. Heyzer and other international institutions focus on building partnerships with the People's Assembly, NUG, NUCC and EAOs and find reputable and reliable stakeholders who they can back, support & listen to.
Meanwhile, explore all measures to weaken SAC
Meanwhile, explore all measures to weaken SAC
N.B.
The UN Special Envoy office clarified that she "has never proposed power sharing as an option"
Stresses that all dialogue has to be led by the MM people and that space depends on immediate cessation of violence and "credible progress".
The UN Special Envoy office clarified that she "has never proposed power sharing as an option"
Stresses that all dialogue has to be led by the MM people and that space depends on immediate cessation of violence and "credible progress".
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