Have you watched The Master's 9 minutes today? Yoda has spoken. The time is now. I'm a time investor. Forget value, growth etc, time is the essence of macro. Now that I get the significance of 12 Yrs to the Chinese I just know that now is right to walk on the macro short side.
But tell me, as I rehearse this week's podcast, just what economic good would a China deval provide? Sure Taiwan did the same in 1997. Interestingly, after all these years it has finally strengthened back to pre-deal levels...just in time for the games to begin once more?
But what economic good does a devalue bestow on a super competitive trading nation with modest external liabilities? Is it simply a case that if I'm going down, I'm taking you buggers with me - a tactical nuclear beggar thy neighbour strike??
You want irony? the voices inside my head have lit up, volume is fever pitch. 40 yr bull mkt in Treasuries will conclude with even lower yields despite clear and unambiguous data pointing to accelerating inflation. Let's see, but that CNH chart is a thing of much contemplation
You can literally hear Macro cry Please, Xi! We don't want to do this...source, barcharts.com
Please share any thoughts on what good would come of it. I reiterate that a China devalue would see us enter a Mad Max world of devastation...Fear is the path to the dark side…fear leads to anger…anger leads to hate…hate leads to suffering.” The Phantom Menace @ToStRo u think?

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More from @hendry_hugh

Feb 2
I'm going to review this, Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 29
Seemed an appropriate swan song...St Barts forever
This year's markets are wonderfully ambiguous, if only SPX were down +20pc I’d know what to do. Anyway, I like a book that begins with something quotable - it means that my REM problem solving software is running inside my head.
I’m lifting from The Anomaly by Hervé Le Tellier but I’m yet to get really motoring with it. Then I’m gonna read it in French, it’s original language. But truth be told, I’m still in mourning for having finished Atlas Shrugged, where will my daily inspiration come from?
Read 5 tweets
Jan 29
Anyway...perhaps I should formally introduce this week's podcast.The conversation is fast paced, even so I try and explain the Quantity Theory of Insanity. The Alchemy of Finance, it is not...
We consider The Secret Policeman's Macro Ball, an annual illuminati gathering of the great minds in macro hedge fund management. The Miami event that you are assured not to receive an invitation to. Just why do the top managers share their best-ideas with their competition?
Regrets, I got a few and we travel back to 9 December 2008 for me to rage at my younger self. You see, 2 years before, I predicted a deflationary event that would send Treasury bond prices surging and the gold price crashing.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 27
Editing the HedgeFund Masterclass for release tomorrow. Wanted to share a snippet. Will be released usual channels and of course YouTube. Sometimes you just know you made a belter youtube.com/channel/UCs4X8…
Peloton and all those muppets that list with the exorbitant privilege of a management category of shares with more voting rights than us plebs. You better be in a bull market cause if you mess up, we, the dogs of capitalism, are going to snarl and bite and blow your house down...
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
Risk is resetting. Things changing. There will be opportunities. There will be blood. Let it be the other guy. Let's get absurd. But first, come on...join me on instagram where I'm broadcasting everyday. Tweeting's like dropping sand in the desert...
Confession, I was always susceptible to a little superstition, still am. GAPS get filled - well they do if I own them. What do I mean. That 1st chart below shows that way back in August last year, investors got a little over-excited in uranium stocks.
Courtesy of barcharts.com Image
Read 16 tweets
Jan 22
I have high conviction that 10 Y Ts will make new price HIGHs before commencing a decades long bear. I think it will record yield lows despite irrefutable evidence of worrisome inflation. Why? Because I believe in the power of paradox
What do you believe in? And don’t you think its a little conceited to think that markets should travel in YOUR direction? That they should always be rational. You got any evidence for that?
No 20h fast or avocados today. I’m having lunch on the beach with an investment legend…a money maker…a rare mind and a great guy
Read 11 tweets

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