Those that can't willingly return to old trades - with good or bad outcomes - never master the Art of Macro...the night watchman understands the need to stock a vintage of ideas and just knows when to remove them from their dusty shelves and plug them into the risk machine...
Soros and the Chinese horoscope are becoming aligned
This is what I had to say in April 2012, ten years ago…I see the global economy grotesquely distorted by the presence of fixed exchange rates, the unravelling of which will create financial anarchy, just as it did in the 1920s and 1930s.
Back then the relevant fixes were around the gold standard. Today it is the dollar/renminbi peg. I believe we might soon come to question whether China is committed to maintaining its currency peg with the dollar.They should, but will they?
Have you watched The Master's 9 minutes today? Yoda has spoken. The time is now. I'm a time investor. Forget value, growth etc, time is the essence of macro. Now that I get the significance of 12 Yrs to the Chinese I just know that now is right to walk on the macro short side.
But tell me, as I rehearse this week's podcast, just what economic good would a China deval provide? Sure Taiwan did the same in 1997. Interestingly, after all these years it has finally strengthened back to pre-deal levels...just in time for the games to begin once more?
Seemed an appropriate swan song...St Barts forever
This year's markets are wonderfully ambiguous, if only SPX were down +20pc I’d know what to do. Anyway, I like a book that begins with something quotable - it means that my REM problem solving software is running inside my head.
I’m lifting from The Anomaly by Hervé Le Tellier but I’m yet to get really motoring with it. Then I’m gonna read it in French, it’s original language. But truth be told, I’m still in mourning for having finished Atlas Shrugged, where will my daily inspiration come from?
Anyway...perhaps I should formally introduce this week's podcast.The conversation is fast paced, even so I try and explain the Quantity Theory of Insanity. The Alchemy of Finance, it is not...
We consider The Secret Policeman's Macro Ball, an annual illuminati gathering of the great minds in macro hedge fund management. The Miami event that you are assured not to receive an invitation to. Just why do the top managers share their best-ideas with their competition?
Regrets, I got a few and we travel back to 9 December 2008 for me to rage at my younger self. You see, 2 years before, I predicted a deflationary event that would send Treasury bond prices surging and the gold price crashing.
Editing the HedgeFund Masterclass for release tomorrow. Wanted to share a snippet. Will be released usual channels and of course YouTube. Sometimes you just know you made a belter youtube.com/channel/UCs4X8…
Peloton and all those muppets that list with the exorbitant privilege of a management category of shares with more voting rights than us plebs. You better be in a bull market cause if you mess up, we, the dogs of capitalism, are going to snarl and bite and blow your house down...
Risk is resetting. Things changing. There will be opportunities. There will be blood. Let it be the other guy. Let's get absurd. But first, come on...join me on instagram where I'm broadcasting everyday. Tweeting's like dropping sand in the desert...
Confession, I was always susceptible to a little superstition, still am. GAPS get filled - well they do if I own them. What do I mean. That 1st chart below shows that way back in August last year, investors got a little over-excited in uranium stocks.