Soros and the Chinese horoscope are becoming aligned 
This is what I had to say in April 2012, ten years ago…I see the global economy grotesquely distorted by the presence of fixed exchange rates, the unravelling of which will create financial anarchy, just as it did in the 1920s and 1930s.
Back then the relevant fixes were around the gold standard. Today it is the dollar/renminbi peg. I believe we might soon come to question whether China is committed to maintaining its currency peg with the dollar.They should, but will they?
It has long seemed to me that this GFC would start in the US and make its way to Europe. That has happened. However, we also think it will end in Asia. There is a near consensus that China will supplant America this decade. I do not believe this.
I'm more bullish on US growth than most (this is old ME ) The momentous nature of recent advances in shale extraction and America's acceptance of the unpleasantness of debt and labour price restructuring looks to us as if it is creating yet another historic turning point.
By embracing his inadequacies and leaping on his luck, the strong man (the USA) may have finally broken the binds that had previously held him back. We are more pessimistic on Chinese growth than ever.
This makes me bearish on industrial commodity prices (2012!!), interested in some US stocks, a seller of high variance (value) equities and deeply concerned that China could become the focal point of the next global leg down.
On the plus side I think that we're much closer to the beginning of an equity bull market of perhaps 1982, if not 1932, proportions.
Not bad, the S&P has risen 2.5x and risk-less stocks have destroyed value stocks and industrial commodities have only just emerged from a long bear that began 12 odd years ago.
China? If only I had understood that our Chinese cousins look at the heavens and count 12 years and not the one that we base our determinations upon…
Imagine 2012 transplanted 12 years fwd…we might just be on the cusp of that great FX reset…and China?? I still think it's most unlikely to supplant the dominance of the USA. And any deval would be an act of bugger, not beggar, my neighbour, it would be economically unjust
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