🧵Here's the main reason we are just about certain to see net job losses in tomorrow's #JobsReport
Every month, about 6 million new jobs start and about 6 million jobs end.
Usually, there are +-200k more jobs starting than ending, so net job gains are positive.
Usually, there are +-200k more jobs starting than ending, so net job gains are positive.
During #Omicron, job separations likely went up.
Businesses let some contracts expire as demand for dining/travel fell & childcare/supply chain disruptions increased.
At the same time, hiring slowed.
Job interviews got delayed because millions were Covid+ or quarantining
Businesses let some contracts expire as demand for dining/travel fell & childcare/supply chain disruptions increased.
At the same time, hiring slowed.
Job interviews got delayed because millions were Covid+ or quarantining
So hires likely dipped below 6 million even as separations held steady or rose.
January's report will likely capture the worst of it. Hiring is already rebounding in February as Covid cases come back down again.
January's report will likely capture the worst of it. Hiring is already rebounding in February as Covid cases come back down again.
In the coming months, I expect to see sky-high oil prices (highest since 2014), the taper tantrum taking place in tech, and continued supply chain issues in manufacturing and construction dent hiring a bit.
Those effects will mostly be offset by the strong recovery in services
Those effects will mostly be offset by the strong recovery in services
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