Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 4 20 tweets 3 min read
Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770
"The Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, hereinafter referred to as the sides, state as follows."

This seems fairly momentus: Russia and China, Putin and Xi speaking as one geopolitical-strategic voice.
Oh the irony!

"The sides share the understanding that democracy is a universal human value, rather than a privilege of a limited number of States.."
This bodes ill for the Arctic

"The sides agreed to continue consistently intensifying practical cooperation for the sustainable development of the Arctic."
Regarding defence

"The sides reaffirm their strong mutual support for the protection of their core interests, state sovereignty and territorial integrity, and oppose interference by external forces in their internal affairs."
"Russia and China stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions, intend to counter interference by outside forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext, oppose colour revolutions, .."
".. and will increase cooperation in the aforementioned areas."
"The sides oppose further enlargement of NATO and call on the North Atlantic Alliance to abandon its ideologized cold war approaches, to respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries, the diversity of their civilizational, cultural and historical .."
".. backgrounds, and to exercise a fair and objective attitude towards the peaceful development of other States."
"The sides stand against the formation of closed bloc structures and opposing camps in the Asia-Pacific region and remain highly vigilant about the negative impact of the United States' Indo-Pacific strategy on peace and stability in the region."
"The sides are seriously concerned about the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom (AUKUS), which provides for deeper cooperation between its members in areas involving strategic stability, in particular their decision .."
".. to initiate cooperation in the field of nuclear-powered submarines."
"The sided [sic] call on the United States to respond positively to the Russian initiative and abandon its plans to deploy intermediate-range and shorter-range ground-based missiles in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe."
Notable given the situation with Ukraine

"The Chinese side is sympathetic to and supports the proposals put forward by the Russian Federation to create long-term legally binding security guarantees in Europe."
LOL

"The sides reiterate their readiness to deepen cooperation in the field of international information security and to contribute to building an open, secure, sustainable and accessible ICT environment."
"The Russian side notes the significance of the concept of constructing a ”community of common destiny for mankind“ proposed by the Chinese side to ensure greater solidarity of the international community and consolidation of efforts in responding to common challenges."
"The sides intend to strongly uphold the outcomes of the Second World War and the existing post-war world order, defend the authority of the United Nations and justice in international relations, resist attempts to deny, distort, and falsify the history of the Second World War."
"... the sides will strongly condemn actions aimed at denying the responsibility for atrocities of Nazi aggressors, militarist invaders, and their accomplices, besmirch and tarnish the honour of the victorious countries."
"The sides reaffirmed their intention to strengthen foreign policy coordination, pursue true multilateralism, strengthen cooperation on multilateral platforms, defend common interests, support the international and regional balance of power, and improve global governance."
There's enough innuendo written into this joint statement to keep policy wonks, IR and defence specialists busy for weeks. The implications of a reinvigorated joint determination to take on the West will unfold in coming months and years.

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More from @Andy_Scollick

Feb 5
Pseudo-parliament and internment camps
Putin's coup plan for Ukraine
by @JulianRoepcke

Original (German) bild.de/bild-plus/poli…
Google translation (English) www-bild-de.translate.goog/politik/auslan…

Stage 1 - Surrender of the cities

1/ Image
Subsequently, the Russian intelligence services would "seize strategic facilities, eliminate threats, recruit those willing to cooperate and establish a new leadership in the conquered cities". 2/
According to the report available to BILD, this practice would be used in key cities in the country until all of Ukraine's metropolises "peacefully" came under Russian control. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 4
Russia and China are close to agreeing on a second pipeline, the "Power of Siberia 2". Crucially, it also would join up Russia's internal gas network, connecting China with the same gas fields in Russia's Yamal peninsula that supply Europe. voanews.com/a/power-of-sib…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
Some people talk about a possible full-scale or mass invasion of Ukraine, which is less likely. Others recognise that a number of small-scale operations with well-defined objectives are more likely. However, some imply that such operations will be less damaging and deadly. 1/ 🧵
Yet, when we look at what possible smaller, well-defined (below mass invasion and occupation threshold) operations could include, we must accept that Ukraine is at risk of great social and economic damage. 2/
1. The 2012 Russian General Staff plan (itself a revision of a 2008 plan) to seize Crimea and create a "Fortress Crimea" power projection platform to dominate the Black Sea Region remains unfinished. It requires full flank protection. 3/
Read 19 tweets
Feb 2
Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) has not received any information from Russia regarding new location of military exercises. Oireachtas Committee on Foreign Affairs to question Russian Ambassador Yuri Filatov rte.ie/news/politics/…
Sinn Féin's Defence spokesperson @SorcaClarke_TD said the questioning of Filatov will focus on Russia's decision to relocate its naval vessels outside of Ireland's economic zone.
Ms Clarke said the committee will need to have confirmation of the new route, and a commitment that the vessels remain visible to Irish Defence Forces at all times if they are in Ireland's economic zone.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
Make sense to you?

“There is no need for mobilization in terms of the current threat. If we announce a training mobilization, it will cause panic in the streets. Everyone would consider that we knew something and concealed information that the enemy would attack tomorrow.”
“In terms of quantity of the soldiers of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, we are talking about a conditional 110,000 ground-to-ground component. Let us add the airborne and marine components, it would amount to 120,000-125,000 soldiers along the entire border ..
Read 6 tweets
Jan 31
With the apparent early stages of a Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) mobilisation, this news is alarming. Kadyrov's Chechen paramilitaries ("Kadyrovtsy") would be used in areas taken by Russian ground forces to "mop up" and terrorise Ukrainian patriots into fleeing.
In 2014, Ramzan Kadyrov promised to send 74,000 Chechen fighters to eastern Ukraine to "bring order" there. Those few he did send cooperated with the pro-Russian "LPR" and "DPR" militias. Image
Photo of some of the 300-strong Chechen "Death Battalion" Kadyrovtsy fighters who fought in and around Donetsk for five months on the side of the pro-Russian forces in 2014-2015. Image
Read 4 tweets

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