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Feb 4 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Russia and China are close to agreeing on a second pipeline, the "Power of Siberia 2". Crucially, it also would join up Russia's internal gas network, connecting China with the same gas fields in Russia's Yamal peninsula that supply Europe. voanews.com/a/power-of-sib…
gazprom.com/projects/power…
pgjonline.com/news/2020/05-m…
spglobal.com/platts/en/mark…

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More from @Andy_Scollick

Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 5
Pseudo-parliament and internment camps
Putin's coup plan for Ukraine
by @JulianRoepcke

Original (German) bild.de/bild-plus/poli…
Google translation (English) www-bild-de.translate.goog/politik/auslan…

Stage 1 - Surrender of the cities

1/ Image
Subsequently, the Russian intelligence services would "seize strategic facilities, eliminate threats, recruit those willing to cooperate and establish a new leadership in the conquered cities". 2/
According to the report available to BILD, this practice would be used in key cities in the country until all of Ukraine's metropolises "peacefully" came under Russian control. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 4
Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770
"The Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, hereinafter referred to as the sides, state as follows."

This seems fairly momentus: Russia and China, Putin and Xi speaking as one geopolitical-strategic voice.
Oh the irony!

"The sides share the understanding that democracy is a universal human value, rather than a privilege of a limited number of States.."
Read 20 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 2
Some people talk about a possible full-scale or mass invasion of Ukraine, which is less likely. Others recognise that a number of small-scale operations with well-defined objectives are more likely. However, some imply that such operations will be less damaging and deadly. 1/ 🧵
Yet, when we look at what possible smaller, well-defined (below mass invasion and occupation threshold) operations could include, we must accept that Ukraine is at risk of great social and economic damage. 2/
1. The 2012 Russian General Staff plan (itself a revision of a 2008 plan) to seize Crimea and create a "Fortress Crimea" power projection platform to dominate the Black Sea Region remains unfinished. It requires full flank protection. 3/
Read 19 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 2
Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) has not received any information from Russia regarding new location of military exercises. Oireachtas Committee on Foreign Affairs to question Russian Ambassador Yuri Filatov rte.ie/news/politics/…
Sinn Féin's Defence spokesperson @SorcaClarke_TD said the questioning of Filatov will focus on Russia's decision to relocate its naval vessels outside of Ireland's economic zone.
Ms Clarke said the committee will need to have confirmation of the new route, and a commitment that the vessels remain visible to Irish Defence Forces at all times if they are in Ireland's economic zone.
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jan 31
Make sense to you?

“There is no need for mobilization in terms of the current threat. If we announce a training mobilization, it will cause panic in the streets. Everyone would consider that we knew something and concealed information that the enemy would attack tomorrow.”
No, me neither. uatv.ua/en/no-need-for…
“In terms of quantity of the soldiers of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, we are talking about a conditional 110,000 ground-to-ground component. Let us add the airborne and marine components, it would amount to 120,000-125,000 soldiers along the entire border ..
Read 6 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Jan 31
With the apparent early stages of a Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) mobilisation, this news is alarming. Kadyrov's Chechen paramilitaries ("Kadyrovtsy") would be used in areas taken by Russian ground forces to "mop up" and terrorise Ukrainian patriots into fleeing.
In 2014, Ramzan Kadyrov promised to send 74,000 Chechen fighters to eastern Ukraine to "bring order" there. Those few he did send cooperated with the pro-Russian "LPR" and "DPR" militias. Image
Photo of some of the 300-strong Chechen "Death Battalion" Kadyrovtsy fighters who fought in and around Donetsk for five months on the side of the pro-Russian forces in 2014-2015. Image
Read 4 tweets

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