Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Feb 3 9 tweets 4 min read
1/9 - "Scientists who track coronavirus mutations are closely monitoring an uptick in cases of an #Omicron sub-variant named BA.2, just as countries were beginning to hope the worst of the latest wave of #COVID19 infections had passed."
ft.com/content/efa3ce…
2/9 - "The strain has been detected in 57 countries, according to the WHO, and now accounts for about 10% of #SARSCoV2 sequences uploaded to Gisaid. Omicron BA.1 is still responsible for most cases. Nevertheless, BA.2 has become the dominant variant in DK, India and S. Africa."
3/9 - "BA.2 possesses up to 27 mutations that are not found in the original version of #Omicron, BA.1. Separate research from public health bodies in DK and the UK looking at household transmission indicate that these mutations make BA.2 30%-34% more infectious than BA.1."
4/9 - "The Danish study, found BA.2 has immune-evasive properties that further reduce the protective effect of vacc. against infection, compared with BA.1. But BA.2 does not increase the likelihood of vaccinated people passing on the virus once infected."
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
5/9 - "UKHSA data found vaccines may be slightly more effective against the #Omicron subtype than the original. Booster shots were 63% effective against symptomatic infection from BA.1, compared with 70% against BA.2, at least two weeks after the dose was administered."
6/9 - "We might expect that there would be some reinfections because in many cases the immune response to #Omicron may not be a particularly strong one. But I think it’s very unlikely that it’s going to break through the immunity from BA.1. It’s definitely not a game-changer.”
7/9 - "Boris Pavlin,from the WHO’s #COVID19 response team, stressed BA.2 did not appear to be changing the picture in hospitals in countries where it is spreading fast. Looking at other countries where BA.2 is now overtaking,we’re not seeing any higher bumps in hospitalisation."
8/9 - "Despite early data suggesting BA.2 is even more transmissible than its sister strain, several countries where it is dominant have pressed ahead with dropping Covid restrictions put in place during the original #Omicron outbreak, citing limited hospital pressures."
9/9 - "Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, the #Omicron offshoot is testing the city’s #ZeroCovid strategy.
“The equation has changed as what has worked for us in the past might not be as effective as it’s so much more transmissible,” Dr Siddharth Sridhar, a clinical virologist at HKU".

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More from @FLAHAULT

Feb 4
1/9 - Feb 04 to Feb 10 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.82)];IRL;SP;FL;FR;
- Plateau, [low/med] high (very high/alarming) mort: [ICL/CH];LUX;(UK=0.99;PT;SE/GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: DK=1.09;AT;BE;
. Med-low mort: NO;NL;DE. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Increase in #COVID19 cases, very high mortality:
Czech=1.22; Eston=1.18; Hung=1.09; Latv=1.23;Lith=1.19; Pol=1.18; Romn=1.24; Russia=1.35;Slovk=1.33; Slovn=1.19;Ukr=1.28;
- Plateau or peak, alarming mortality:
Bulg=0.98; Croat=0.96; Serb=1.01. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 4
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.87) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with 195,888 cases and 287 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 10, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 04 to Feb 07:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/5 - Ten mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases, landing to their safety zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.89);
Brg-Frche-C=0.97;
Ctre-Val-L=0.97;
[Corse=0.95];
Grd-Est=0.99:
Hts-de-Fr=0.96;
Ile-de-Fr=0.77.
Norm=0.99;
P-de-L=0.99.
[PACA=0.91]. ImageImageImageImage
3/5 - Two mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bretagne (R-eff=1.04);
[Occitanie=1.06].
Read 7 tweets
Feb 3
1/9 - Feb 03 to Feb 09 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.83)];IRL;SP;FL;FR;
- Plateau, [low/med] high (very high/alarming) mort: [ICL/CH;BE];LUX;(UK=0.97;PT/GR);
- Deteriorating:
. [Very] high mort: [SE];DK=1.08;AT;
. Med-low mort: NO;NL;DE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Surge or rise in #COVID19 cases, high mortality:
Czech=1.27; Eston=1.21; Hung=1.11; Latv=1.24;Lith=1.21; Pol=1.19; Romn=1.26; Russia=1.36;Slovk=1.36; Slovn=1.19;Ukr=1.3;
- Reaching their peak, alarming mortality: Bulg=1.03; Croat=0.98; Serb=1.03.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 3
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.91) is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with 237,583 cases and 297 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 09, if at same pace.
80.3% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 03 to Feb 06:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Five mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases and are landing to their safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.93);
[Corse=0.97];
Hauts-de-France=1.0;
[Ile-de-France=0.80].
[PACA=0.96].
3/5 - Seven mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.03);
Bretagne=1.05;
Centre-Val-Loire=1.02;
Grand-Est=1.05:
Normandie=1.01;
[Occitanie=1.08];
Pays-de-Loire=1.07.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 2
1/9 - Feb 02 to Feb 08 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.75)/SP;FL;[IT];
- Plateau, [low/med] high (alarming) mort: [ICL/CH];UK=0.98;LUX;FR;(GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort:PT;DK=1.08;SE;BE;AT;
. Med-low mort:NO;NL;DE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.03; Croat=1.01; [Czech=1.15; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.13; Latv=1.27;Lith=1.21; Pol=1.26; Romn=1.28; Russia=1.36;Serb=1.05; Slovk=1.39; Slovn=1.21;Ukr=1.32].
Read 11 tweets
Feb 2
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.95) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 279,279 cases and 298 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 08, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 02 to Feb 05:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Four mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases and are landing to their safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.92);
[Corse=0.97];
[Ile-de-Fr=0.79].
[PACA=0.96].
3/5 - Eight mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.07);
Bretg=1.06;
Ctre-Val-L=1.01;
Grand-Est=1.04:
Hts-de-Fr=1.02;
Normd=1.01;
[Occitanie=1.08];
Pays-de-Loire=1.08.
Read 7 tweets

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