Thread by @BillyBobBaghold

$METIS Bullish Unlock

A few people are bearish about $METIS's upcoming 13 Feb token unlock. I'm not and here's my reasoning.

TLDR:

1. Not all VCs will sell, and not all will sell on market
2. Massive buying pressure post unlock
3. $MAGIC unlock comparison
4. It's $METIS

1/11

488k tokens (23% of circ supply) unlock on 13 Feb. Excluding team and MetisLab tokens (133k), this leaves 356k tokens unlocked (h/t @Whit3Rh1n0).

2/11

This is a significant amount. In November it did cause the price to dip c. 50%.

However not all VCs will sell on market and even fewer this time around. I assume there is much more OTC demand for $METIS now than when it was a fledgling and unproven network.

3/11

Now it's the second largest general purpose L2 after Arbitrum.

And whose to say the majority of VCs will sell? The @MetisDAO and their VCs have launched a $100m $METIS ecosystem fund. This signals they are committed to and see the long-term potential of $METIS.

4/11

This is not to say some of the tokens won't be sold on market. But the thing is, EVERYONE in crypto knows about the unlock and has been preparing for the unlock by selling into stables to BTFD on 13 Feb.

5/11

This has led to two key outcomes:

1. The $METIS price has been suppressed due to selling (and FUD from whales to buy back lower)
2. There is a massive stack of stables waiting on to buy the dip

6/11

See how the supply of stables* on $METIS has increased so sharply to c. $250m compared to total TVL. That's 50% of total TVL in stables and a massive amount of buying pressure to buy any dip.

*there's an additional c. $105m of $USDT

7/

Granted not all those stables are for dip buying and likely the majority are being farmed and will continue to be so used. But from a rough calculation, Arbitrum only has c. 23% of its TVL in stables. Less than half that of $METIS.

8/11

I do of course expect a price dip - there will be more sell pressure at some point since there will be some market selling from the unlock. But as soon as it dips, buyers will flood into the market.

9/11

I wouldn't be surprised if we see for $METIS something similar to what happened to $MAGIC after its unlock on 24 Jan.

TLDR: 3x in a day

10/11

And all of my reasoning above completely ignores that $METIS still has the best UX and strongest roadmap of any L2 and the #L22022 narrative.

I'll be ready with my stables on 13 Feb, like 1000s of others. After a small dip, I'm expecting a big move up, if $BTC behaves.

11/11

It would be nice to live in a world where people read entire threads before commenting. A boy can dream.