Latest JTWC forecast for #Batsirai shows it deviating from its predicted path. "THE LLCC MOVED OFFSHORE AROUND 061600Z, THEN TRACK NEARLY DUE WEST OR A BIT NORTH OF DUE WEST, BUT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE INITIAL POSITION."
#Batsirai has stalled & is expected to follow its existing track forecast. In the short term (36 hrs) it may intensify. The latest model guidance (GEFS plot below) does not take into account the change in behaviour
The track forecast has now been updated and #Batsirai appears now to be in the process of making the sharp turn to the south in the latest JTWC update.
Also further East. TC Cliff, designated yesterday is no longer considered to be a threat by the JTWC, with a final warning has issued this morning.
Here's a picture of TC Cliff from this morning. Which is no longer considered to be a threat to Madagascar.
This is the full reasoning/discussion from the JTWC regarding the South Indian Ocean, with attention now moving further east to disturbance of interest 93S.
The long range model forecast for 93S is also favourable for now. This is the latest GFS SIO Precipitable Water Model through 23 Feb. Its a complex situation.
Cyclone #Batsirai takes a hard left turn as the sun rises.
Astonishing.
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The Ukraine war drama has been driven by domestic political considerations in the US & Russia of two beleaguered incumbents. It now it appears it is being deftly resolved in a manner which will assist another HOS, albeit a younger less beleaguered one.
@EmmanuelMacron@WIONews What is particularly galling and insane about the latest round of U.S. sabre rattling over the weekend is this: 1. Russia has just taken over the UNSC Presidency 2. The Solemn Olympic Truce period is underway 3. Xi and Putin have just met in China
The GoE needs to follow up publicly on its complaint to the @WHO Executive Board, which @DrTedros managed to neatly sidestep in a procedurally very dodgy manner, by getting the Board to make him responsible for determining how to deal with his own misconduct.
To make it easier here is the bit of the thread which records precisely how Kenyan EB meeting chairman Amoth's dealt with Ethiopia's "Note Verbal" complaint.
Is the fpa.org a big deal? Apparently not. Just old.
@DrTedros's PR team are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Its Wikipedia [en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_P… has been flagged by moderators for looking like an advert.
The Foreign Policy Association was set up an eon ago, and was possibly never really relevant. Its website fpa.org has no traffic at all.
Its CEO and President Noel V Lateef apparently wrote a book about the Sahel in the 1981. amazon.fr/Crisis-Sahel-S…
To be fair he has written more books since & in May signed onto a letter from the US Chamber of Commerce to President Biden about leadership in global Covid Vaccinations. Open Letter to the President of the United States on the Need for U.S. Leadership in Global Vaccinations.
Here is a satellite image of #Batsirai as it leaves Madagascar heading due south.
This morning a media briefing from @UNICEF@UNGeneva addressed humanitarian crises in East Africa, many of which are climate related. And included a briefing on Madagascar and its recent storms. media.un.org/en/asset/k1b/k…
Cyclone 92p has now formed north east of New Caledonia and here you can see in the satellite imagery how an atmospheric river generated from its outflows is strengthening and heading towards NZ's West Coast.
Whilst the formation of a Cyclone in this position has been predicted in the models for a long time, its formation is uncertain until it happens, and a critical point in the unfolding story of this #KiwiDeluge.
In this animation you can see the circulation form and its size.
Towards the end of the animation you can also see that it has started to move south eastwards, also as predicted.
This animation shows the broader picture across the tropics, an area on the RHT here (roughly over Tonga) is also playing an important role in this.