Thread by @althecat

Latest JTWC forecast for #Batsirai shows it deviating from its predicted path. "THE LLCC MOVED OFFSHORE AROUND 061600Z, THEN TRACK NEARLY DUE WEST OR A BIT NORTH OF DUE WEST, BUT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE INITIAL POSITION."

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1490602152544419841

Full reasoning from JTWC here >> metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/…

#Batsirai has stalled & is expected to follow its existing track forecast. In the short term (36 hrs) it may intensify. The latest model guidance (GEFS plot below) does not take into account the change in behaviour

The track forecast has now been updated and #Batsirai appears now to be in the process of making the sharp turn to the south in the latest JTWC update.

Also further East. TC Cliff, designated yesterday is no longer considered to be a threat by the JTWC, with a final warning has issued this morning.

Here's a picture of TC Cliff from this morning. Which is no longer considered to be a threat to Madagascar.

This is the full reasoning/discussion from the JTWC regarding the South Indian Ocean, with attention now moving further east to disturbance of interest 93S.

The long range model forecast for 93S is also favourable for now. This is the latest GFS SIO Precipitable Water Model through 23 Feb. Its a complex situation.

Cyclone #Batsirai takes a hard left turn as the sun rises.

Astonishing.