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Feb 8 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
#ExtremeWeather Update 7: Madagascar

Whilst #CycloneBatsirai has now passed, Madagascar is not yet out of danger as the South Indian Ocean Cyclone Season remains very active.

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Here is a satellite image of #Batsirai as it leaves Madagascar heading due south.
This morning a media briefing from @UNICEF @UNGeneva addressed humanitarian crises in East Africa, many of which are climate related. And included a briefing on Madagascar and its recent storms. media.un.org/en/asset/k1b/k…
This video includes aerial footage of the aftermath of #Batsirai from @WFP_UNHAS flights to assess the damage, it shows a glimpse of some of the worst flooding.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 8
Following a weekend of hysteria and "imminent" invasion talk, it appears diplomacy is working on Ukraine.

Putin says 'ready for compromises, will consider proposals by @EmmanuelMacron ' via @WIONews
@EmmanuelMacron @WIONews Which is a good thing.

The Ukraine war drama has been driven by domestic political considerations in the US & Russia of two beleaguered incumbents. It now it appears it is being deftly resolved in a manner which will assist another HOS, albeit a younger less beleaguered one.
@EmmanuelMacron @WIONews What is particularly galling and insane about the latest round of U.S. sabre rattling over the weekend is this:
1. Russia has just taken over the UNSC Presidency
2. The Solemn Olympic Truce period is underway
3. Xi and Putin have just met in China

france24.com/en/tv-shows/th…
Read 27 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 8
The GoE needs to follow up publicly on its complaint to the @WHO Executive Board, which @DrTedros managed to neatly sidestep in a procedurally very dodgy manner, by getting the Board to make him responsible for determining how to deal with his own misconduct.
I addressed what precisely happened in a thread at the time. This quoted tweet contains the best entry point to this discussion.
To make it easier here is the bit of the thread which records precisely how Kenyan EB meeting chairman Amoth's dealt with Ethiopia's "Note Verbal" complaint.
Read 11 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 8
Is the fpa.org a big deal? Apparently not. Just old.

@DrTedros's PR team are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Its Wikipedia [en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_P… has been flagged by moderators for looking like an advert.
The Foreign Policy Association was set up an eon ago, and was possibly never really relevant. Its website fpa.org has no traffic at all.

Its CEO and President Noel V Lateef apparently wrote a book about the Sahel in the 1981. amazon.fr/Crisis-Sahel-S…
To be fair he has written more books since & in May signed onto a letter from the US Chamber of Commerce to President Biden about leadership in global Covid Vaccinations. Open Letter to the President of the United States on the Need for U.S. Leadership in Global Vaccinations.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 8
#KiwiDeluge Phase 2 begins.

#ExtremeWeather update thread

Cyclone 92p has now formed north east of New Caledonia and here you can see in the satellite imagery how an atmospheric river generated from its outflows is strengthening and heading towards NZ's West Coast.
Whilst the formation of a Cyclone in this position has been predicted in the models for a long time, its formation is uncertain until it happens, and a critical point in the unfolding story of this #KiwiDeluge.

In this animation you can see the circulation form and its size.
Towards the end of the animation you can also see that it has started to move south eastwards, also as predicted.

This animation shows the broader picture across the tropics, an area on the RHT here (roughly over Tonga) is also playing an important role in this.
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 7
Latest JTWC forecast for #Batsirai shows it deviating from its predicted path. "THE LLCC MOVED OFFSHORE AROUND 061600Z, THEN TRACK NEARLY DUE WEST OR A BIT NORTH OF DUE WEST, BUT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE INITIAL POSITION."
Full reasoning from JTWC here >> metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/…

#Batsirai has stalled & is expected to follow its existing track forecast. In the short term (36 hrs) it may intensify. The latest model guidance (GEFS plot below) does not take into account the change in behaviour
The track forecast has now been updated and #Batsirai appears now to be in the process of making the sharp turn to the south in the latest JTWC update.
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 6
Destroyed by storm surge and hurricane force winds. Pictures from the epicenter of Cyclone #Batsirai’s landfall
Another video tweet.
Horrific looking flooding pictures, likely from an area near the Capital where the heaviest rain fell. #CycloneBatsirai
Read 5 tweets

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