Thread by @althecat

Following a weekend of hysteria and "imminent" invasion talk, it appears diplomacy is working on Ukraine.

Putin says 'ready for compromises, will consider proposals by @EmmanuelMacron ' via @WIONews

@EmmanuelMacron @WIONews Which is a good thing.

The Ukraine war drama has been driven by domestic political considerations in the US & Russia of two beleaguered incumbents. It now it appears it is being deftly resolved in a manner which will assist another HOS, albeit a younger less beleaguered one.

@EmmanuelMacron @WIONews What is particularly galling and insane about the latest round of U.S. sabre rattling over the weekend is this:
1. Russia has just taken over the UNSC Presidency
2. The Solemn Olympic Truce period is underway
3. Xi and Putin have just met in China

france24.com/en/tv-shows/th…

In order to believe that Russia is about to invade Ukraine "imminently" you really need to be both blinkered (sic.) and very foolish.

I.e. you need to believe the Presidents of both China and Russia are on the threshold of plunging the world into something risking WW3....

... whilst they are engaged in enhancing their political standing domestically through holding office and bolstering their political standing as global statesmen in the UNSC (Russia) and via hosting the Olympics (China).

Today's latest eruptions of stupid from across the pond assert that Nordstream 2 is definitely going to be cancelled if a war starts in Ukraine. Something that the US has always wanted and which they seem to think they can ensure happens by pressuring the new German Chancellor.

But this is a foolish hypothetical. War is not going to happen in Ukraine, and never was.

The U.S. @StateDept has been completely rolled by Russia.

& Europe has now made clear it will not allow Washington to dictate its security posture.

Neither Russia nor the U.S.

Which is a great outcome for peace and security for all of humanity, though no doubt there will be many in the Pentagon who are still fighting the cold war who disagree intensely.

If we go back to June and Biden's summit with Putin in Geneva we can see the beginning of the trail which led to this point.

At the time I was encouraged by the @JoeBiden's candid remarks and willingness to enter into a "strategic stability" dialogue with Russia.

@JoeBiden Their meeting in June came shortly after an earlier Eastern Russian military buildup and set of Russian military manoeuvres near Ukraine in April.

@JoeBiden At the time @POTUS Biden made two other remarks which were both odd, and for me hopeful. He said:

1. That the US does not want a new cold war
2. That the US does not interfere in other nations elections

Neither of these things are true.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1405220868763131909?s=20&t=ZJNKeuHvEebXBEYVHqaGEA

The China-US standoff is very much like a cold war, and the standoff over NATO/Ukraine also looks very cold war. Many American's and Russians think Trump was installed by Putin. And it definitely looks like he helped - also with Brexit.

As for the US not interfering in elections, or in national democracies, how about Ethiopia, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Haiti, Guinea and Honduras.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1405220868763131909

I was giving @JoeBiden the benefit of the doubt, and certainly back in June he was on form. looking great in the Switzerland sunshine in is aviators - and sounding optimistic. And I posited that maybe he had a cunning plan.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1405222099640274946?s=20&t=ZJNKeuHvEebXBEYVHqaGEA

Anyway looking back now, this seems a significantly less credible an explanation for what we are seeing.

To continue to believe this you need to think that Biden is playing a long game and not on board with his own team.

But it does explain by Putin decided to pile on the pressure to force NATO (the European side) to the negotiating table, and it appears he has succeeded in this objective.

And in doing so he may well have achieved his other objective, i.e. driving a wedge between the Europe and the U.S.

With all the hysteria coming out of Washington DC @EmmanuelMacron and @OlafScholz had no choice but to try to mediate.

I find it amusing to see that High Representative @JosepBorrellF has accompanied the German Chancellor on his visit to the U.S. I understand why he wanted to go, just not why @OlafScholz granted him the courtesy.

https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1490991854472544257?s=20&t=rqKe9LRj967kECt7fHe5hw

If you have to accompany the German Chancellor to Washington D.C. to keep an eye on what he says - and come out with a promotional video like this, anyone would quite rightly ask why there is such a gaping void between the European and US negotiating stances r.e. Ukraine.

Which there is - one that keeps getting bigger by the day - with every inflammatory U.S. @PentagonPresSec / @PressSec / @StateDeptSpox press conference and TV appearance by @SecBlinken and @JakeSullivan46.

In the face of all of this crazy Europe has rightly taken over the help with President Macron effectively taking over the position as chief negotiator, Chancellor Scholz as his understudy and @vonderleyen advising.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1486078646167158791?s=20&t=rqKe9LRj967kECt7fHe5hw

And this is how it should be.

That the Pentagon considered it ought to be playing a significant role in directing the diplomatic direction around a strategic security dialogue in Europe is far from surprising. This is how things have been since WWII.

But prior to Brexit in 2020, if Europe was having such a discussion the UK would be in the room, not only as a member of NATO, but as a very significant player in the European Commission.

All of which helps explain why the Russian President has chosen now to put on the pressure, to force the issue on his long standing concerns over NATO's military posture and the proliferation of intermediate range nuclear missiles.

From a European perspective standing up to the U.S. which has played such a massive role on the continent in the post WWII period is a difficult step to take, but a necessary one.

From 1974-2020 much of that relationship was mediated via the UK-US special relationship.

Now the EU needs to develop its own, not as members of NATO but as the EU and the US on even terms. And the last two weeks of #UkraineCrisis drama have made that happen.

French President @EmmanuelMacron is now effectively chief allied negotiator.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1486078646167158791?s=20&t=rqKe9LRj967kECt7fHe5hw

The big mystery is whether this is by @JoeBiden's design or not.

I certainly hope it is.

/ENDS

@Threadreaderapp unroll