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More from @ramahluwalia

Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida

@ramahluwalia

Apr 25

I think Opus 4.7 is smarter than me.

I spent 2 hours exploring some deeply esoteric philosophical concepts with Claude. It didn't miss a beat.

It connected dots and fleshed out intuitions I was exploring.

The edge over AI now is intuititon and, hopefully, an ounce or two of wisdom.

Those are still big edges.

Read 8 tweets

Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida

@ramahluwalia

Feb 16

https://x.com/ramahluwalia/status/1860881099913629837

2026: THE YEAR OF GOLDILOCKS?

Last year, I made the case for Goldilocks.

You can scroll down and read it below.

I re-iterated that case in Q4 several times as well, and the indices cruised to new all time highs.

Where we stand today?

I believe Goldilocks is now priced in.

Take a look at this chart of one of my favorite indicators: the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index.

That circle?

That's when Goldilocks was priced in.

It's extremely difficult to find value and opportunities in a broad range of sectors.

I haven't been this bearish in a while.

See my post a few days ago called 'There Were Signs'.

Think you should be re-thinking many of your positions that have worked well since the beginning of the cycle, including the AI trade.

https://x.com/ramahluwalia/status/1860881099913629837

Check out what’s working…

Momentum… carried away.

Value is also pricey now.

Read 11 tweets

Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida

@ramahluwalia

Jan 15

1/ SOFTWARE: DEAD OR ALIVE?

Back in 2023, I made the case that AI is highly disruptive to firms like Adobe and SaaS more generally.

I think that's too much of a generalization and really is case-by-case.

Take a look at $TEAM sales growth vs. stock price.

Notice Sales is stair-stepping higher year after year, but the stock price has sold off.

2/ Now let's look at Salesforce $CRM

Same story. Earnings is headed up, the stock price is dislocated.

3/ Adobe has transitioned to a cashcow, it's no longer a growth machine.

But, sales is still growing. And the installed base is sticky.

Read 10 tweets

Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida

@ramahluwalia

Sep 23, 2025

BETTER BACKSTORY

Below is my write up on $BETR in my public telegram group, and that same datw overlayed on the chart.

I had the CEO of Better on the @LumidaWealth Non-Consensus Investing podcast back in December when everyone hated the stock.

In the video below, I share more how we found Better…

Thank you @ericjackson for lifting this to the stratosphere.

Do I believe Better has more upside potential?

Yes.

1) Momentum creates its own demand.

2) Better has a chance now, like $HOOD, to tap into Community X Capital dynamics and turn shareholders into customers.

If they can execute that transition, then CAC drops.

3) There are few pureplay Mortgage players out there.

Rocket is one — and they have a much higher valuation…

Will close by saying - my approach with ideas is ‘quiet’. We own a dozens of stocks across a dozen theme.

Do the deep work, be patient, and price often follows…

$BETR

https://twitter.com/ramahluwalia/status/1970251823127609645

2/ More on how we analyzed Better

Small cap value, rates lowering, mortg refi, hated asset

Tell me more please.

https://twitter.com/ramahluwalia/status/1970251823127609645

3/ This was my interview with Better CEO in December.

You need to look where no one is looking AND avoid value traps.

They are mispriced by definition.

So, opportunity is asymmetric.

lumidawealth.com/lumida-legacy-…

Read 5 tweets

Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida

@ramahluwalia

Aug 1, 2025

THE STATE OF PLAY

Coinbase is entering equities trading.

RobinHood wants to get from crypto to alts.

Schwab is confused and feels disruption encroaching.

Fidelity is getting into bitcoin lending.

Kraken bot Ninja Trader and is eyeing a differentiated value prop.

Morgan Stanley is wondering why they bought e-Trade.

Competitive intensity is increasing.

Fair to say we are close to peak multiples as we see these heavy weight champs start to do damage to each other.

There is still blue ocean space here… a digitally native bank with deposits, lending, payments and a Fed Master account will be the next $100 Bn company.

It does not exist… yet…

$COIN $HOOD $MS $SCHW

2/ In 2022, various exchanges were blowing up in the background (FTC, Celsius, Genesis, etc) for pretending to act like a bank and rehypothecate

3/ I put pen to paper and learned the Bank Holding Co and related acts and sketched out what the correct model would look like.

This is the opening TOC:

Read 15 tweets

Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida

@ramahluwalia

Jul 23, 2025

I look for mispricings.

Benicio del Toro is a mispriced actor.

Christopher Nolan was mispriced after he made Memento (back in 2000).

The Audi A6 is mispriced relative to luxury brands.

CoreWeave was mispriced at 15x PE in private markets.

The ETHE / GBTC trade was mispriced at a 50% discount to NAV.

A 2.5% 30 year fixed rate mortgage in Covid was mispriced.

Uranium was mispriced when we interviewed the CEO of $ASPI last year.

(Ditto $VIRT and $BETR both interviewer on Lumida Non-Consensus Podcast.)

Solana was mispriced when @LumidaWealth interviewed @KyleSamani

Hot sauna and cold dips are mispriced.
JP Morgan and UBS were mispriced during the 2023 banking crisis.

I believe the long-term benefits of having a family and memories to cherish is mispriced (eg, under-rated).

Physics and Philosophy majors are
mispriced.

Rocket Lab was mispriced when Elon was ex-communicated from Trump’s orbit.

Capitalism & entrepreneurship is mispriced.

Certain business models are mispriced.

Carl Jung and Joseph Campbell are mispriced philosophers.

Stand up comedy is mispriced.

I enjoy recruiting talent on Telegram or Discord because their intensity is mispriced.

Consumer discretionary and semiconductors like $NCLH and $TSM were mispriced after tariffmageddon.

People often classify strategies as momentum (trend following) or value (mean reversion).

There is another bucket.

I love mispricings.