Really enjoyed @brian_armstrong interview on the @BanklessHQ podcast. Here's a thread with the key highlights
Time for a thread...
Brian sees Coinbase as on a spectrum. On one end you have traditional FIs. There are tech companies in the middle. And then there are web3/crypto companies on the other extreme.
Coinbase aspires to be a fully decentralized company. Think here Web3/Dapp a la Uniswap. It's a great aspiration... The hard part is how do you get there as a publicly traded company legally, operationally, customer UX?
So here’s the $100 Bn question for Coinbase...If digital currency ETFs are inevitable, consumers will buy BTC in their brokerage accounts. Convenience wins. Doesn’t that kill @coinbase core transaction revenue stream?
A thread...
Coinbase is heavily dependent on transaction revenue (96% of total). And we should expect transaction fees to compress from 150 bps to 5 to 10 bps (the ‘rate’ for esoteric capital market ETFs)
Can CoinBase continue to male money via altcoin trading, staking, inst’l custody? Yes. But none of those are meaningful revenue streams...and I would not expect that to change. Note BTC / ETH trades comprise 56% of Coinbase tx revenue in 2020...