PSA to anyone interested in informing public discourse about the severity of the epidemic situation in Denmark (and maybe elsewhere):
Show extreme care when sharing screenshots of cases & admissions from @OurWorldInData or similar
Let me explain in 3 plots. (1/6)
Omicron generates very high case counts but lower severity, disrupting the indicators & patterns we have all been tracking for 2 years.
The plots I'll now show are all from Danish Center for Disease Control's (@SSI_dk) weekly monitoring report: ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi…. (2/6)
#1
With a lot of infections many will be admitted with but not because of covid. The plot below shows the development. Red is "because of". Right now only 55 % of admissions with a positive test are because of covid. (3/6)
#2
This also applies to people admitted to intensive care. This graph shows the development across weeks in how many are being treated for covid (in red) among those admitted to intensive care with a positive test. (4/6)
#3
Thise even applies to people dying while tested positive for covid. Purple are those estimated to die because of covid, with the proportion plotted in the lower plot. Right now 33 % who die with a positive test dies of something else. (5/6)
Plenty to discuss regarding the Danish epidemic situation: E.g., this development in cases across age groups. What are the consequences regarding long covid? What will happen when cases increase among the elderly?
But any discussion starts with getting the facts right. (6/6)
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Twitter is so terrible because with social media even the illiterate masses get to voice their views, right?
Wrong.
In a new preprint, we find that the most hateful in political discussions are more resourceful: Engaged, efficacious & educated: psyarxiv.com/tp93r/
🧵(1/10)
We obtained US survey participants' Twitter IDs in order to connect their psychological & political profile to Twitter activity (N=2012). In addition to toxicity & sentiment, we assessed their tweets' level of political hate with this classifier: psyarxiv.com/8m5dc/. (2/10)
Our preferred measure ("political hate") is significantly predicted by political engagement, political interest, internal efficacy and education. For toxicity and sentiment, results are in the same direction. We see no evidence that hostility is higher among the unengaged. (3/10)
Today, Denmark lifted *all* restrictions, while cases are soaring.
The international reaction: Disbelief.
I am leading the largest Danish project on pandemic behavior & I am advising the gov.
Here is why Danes are still supportive. And what may be learned from this.
🧵(1/19)
The graph is from here: ft.com/content/037a3a…. It shows the complexity of the epidemic situation. Cases are extremely high, hospitalizations are rising and deaths are rising slowly too. But people in ICUs are dropping. (2/19)
Despite this, a clear majority of the public supports removing all restrictions (nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2022-0…). A minority (28 %) is concerned. (3/19)
Den faldende støtte afspejler sig også i en faldende opbakning til en række restriktioner. Der er stadig flertal for en række - også hårdere - restriktioner, men niveauet er faldende. (2/10)
Faldet i opbakning kan skyldes en faldende bekymring. Folk er lige nu mere optimistiske end bekymrede. Og de er (en anelse) mere bekymrede for nedlukninger end for deres eget helbred. Der er dog stadig høj bekymring for hospitalernes kapacitet. (3/10)
The end will not be easy. Moving a public out of a crisis demands as much leadership as activating the initial crisis response
A research-driven 🧵 on a key challenge of 2022 & how to deal with it
(1/13)
The graph shows the % of Danes using masks daily from a N~400,000 survey from our @HopeProject_dk
The ups-&-downs reflect when authorities required masks. It is a case of optimal crisis behavior: Immediate strong compliance when needed. Immediate relaxation when possible. (2/13)
A coordinated public response requires (1) clear advice from authorities, (2) high levels of trust in that advice, and (3) shared feelings of threat. Studies of crisis responses thus find that trust & threat are their key causes: doi.org/10.1080/002239… (3/13)