PSA to anyone interested in informing public discourse about the severity of the epidemic situation in Denmark (and maybe elsewhere):

Show extreme care when sharing screenshots of cases & admissions from @OurWorldInData or similar

Let me explain in 3 plots. (1/6)
Omicron generates very high case counts but lower severity, disrupting the indicators & patterns we have all been tracking for 2 years.

The plots I'll now show are all from Danish Center for Disease Control's (@SSI_dk) weekly monitoring report: ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi…. (2/6)
#1

With a lot of infections many will be admitted with but not because of covid. The plot below shows the development. Red is "because of". Right now only 55 % of admissions with a positive test are because of covid. (3/6)
#2

This also applies to people admitted to intensive care. This graph shows the development across weeks in how many are being treated for covid (in red) among those admitted to intensive care with a positive test. (4/6)
#3

Thise even applies to people dying while tested positive for covid. Purple are those estimated to die because of covid, with the proportion plotted in the lower plot. Right now 33 % who die with a positive test dies of something else. (5/6)
Plenty to discuss regarding the Danish epidemic situation: E.g., this development in cases across age groups. What are the consequences regarding long covid? What will happen when cases increase among the elderly?

But any discussion starts with getting the facts right. (6/6)

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More from @M_B_Petersen

Feb 12
Omicron has raised a key question globally:

What is the end goal of pandemic management?

If you as a citizen don't know the answer to this, communication has failed.

Public support requires clear communication about goals & involved uncertainties, costs & benefits.

🧵(1/17)
Why is now more important than ever?

Because omicron has decoupled cases and epidemic severity.

Before all strategies led to suppressing cases.

With omicron, it is possible to suppress severe disease with vaccines & treatment without suppressing cases. (2/17)
Should countries suppress cases or suppress disease?

Hong Kong has imposed the toughest restrictions yet in the face of omicron, choosing to suppress cases: scmp.com/news/hong-kong…?

Scandinavia has lifted all restrictions, choosing to suppress severe disease. (3/17)
Read 17 tweets
Feb 3
Twitter is so terrible because with social media even the illiterate masses get to voice their views, right?

Wrong.

In a new preprint, we find that the most hateful in political discussions are more resourceful: Engaged, efficacious & educated: psyarxiv.com/tp93r/

🧵(1/10)
We obtained US survey participants' Twitter IDs in order to connect their psychological & political profile to Twitter activity (N=2012). In addition to toxicity & sentiment, we assessed their tweets' level of political hate with this classifier: psyarxiv.com/8m5dc/. (2/10)
Our preferred measure ("political hate") is significantly predicted by political engagement, political interest, internal efficacy and education. For toxicity and sentiment, results are in the same direction. We see no evidence that hostility is higher among the unengaged. (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Feb 1
Today, Denmark lifted *all* restrictions, while cases are soaring.

The international reaction: Disbelief.

I am leading the largest Danish project on pandemic behavior & I am advising the gov.

Here is why Danes are still supportive. And what may be learned from this.

🧵(1/19)
The graph is from here: ft.com/content/037a3a…. It shows the complexity of the epidemic situation. Cases are extremely high, hospitalizations are rising and deaths are rising slowly too. But people in ICUs are dropping. (2/19)
Despite this, a clear majority of the public supports removing all restrictions (nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2022-0…). A minority (28 %) is concerned. (3/19)
Read 19 tweets
Jan 18
Today, I stood before the Danish parliament on a public hearing on social media & democracy

As a researcher of online hate, I could have spent hours. But I had 10 minutes, so I had to be focused

The title was "The Myths About Social Media"

Here is what I said👇

🧵(1/12)
The data is clear: We have a problem.

Citizens find online debates more hateful; the non-haters withdraw from the discussions; and politicians & public figures are harassed online.

But: There are myths about the causes. Solutions require correct problem-identification. (2/12)
Myth 1: A lot of misinfo on social media

No, research suggests there is little, shared by few & having small effects.

Those sharing misinfo are not dumb. But they have intense political animus, which motivates to share what fits their worldview, true or false.

(3/12)
Read 13 tweets
Jan 13
En pandemi er en voldsom krise. Ikke blot for sundheden, men for samfundet.

Ny HOPE-rapport viser klare tegn på mere mistillid, udmattelse & splittelse: github.com/Hopeproject202…

Flertallet støtter stadig håndteringen, men niveauet er det lavest målte.

#dkpol #dkmedier 🧵(1/10) Image
Den faldende støtte afspejler sig også i en faldende opbakning til en række restriktioner. Der er stadig flertal for en række - også hårdere - restriktioner, men niveauet er faldende. (2/10) Image
Faldet i opbakning kan skyldes en faldende bekymring. Folk er lige nu mere optimistiske end bekymrede. Og de er (en anelse) mere bekymrede for nedlukninger end for deres eget helbred. Der er dog stadig høj bekymring for hospitalernes kapacitet. (3/10) ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Jan 1
2022 is the 3rd year of COVID & perhaps the last: who.int/news-room/comm…

The end will not be easy. Moving a public out of a crisis demands as much leadership as activating the initial crisis response

A research-driven 🧵 on a key challenge of 2022 & how to deal with it

(1/13)
The graph shows the % of Danes using masks daily from a N~400,000 survey from our @HopeProject_dk

The ups-&-downs reflect when authorities required masks. It is a case of optimal crisis behavior: Immediate strong compliance when needed. Immediate relaxation when possible. (2/13)
A coordinated public response requires (1) clear advice from authorities, (2) high levels of trust in that advice, and (3) shared feelings of threat. Studies of crisis responses thus find that trust & threat are their key causes: doi.org/10.1080/002239… (3/13)
Read 13 tweets

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