In the last few years, there have been a lot of headlines like this:
"We have 10 years to prevent catastrophic climate change."
But what does that really mean?
Here's a thread with some charts that will hopefully help you understand it better.
🧵
"We have 10 years to prevent catastrophic climate change."
But what does that really mean?
Here's a thread with some charts that will hopefully help you understand it better.
🧵
But first, let's talk about some recent controversy related to all this:
A few days ago @GhostPanther, director of Don't Look Up, tweeted this:
A few days ago @GhostPanther, director of Don't Look Up, tweeted this:
https://twitter.com/GhostPanther/status/1490114542424125444
A lot of climate scientists and researchers did NOT like that tweet.
They felt like it was inaccurate and hyperbolic.
Here's an example critique from climate scientist, @CColose.
They felt like it was inaccurate and hyperbolic.
Here's an example critique from climate scientist, @CColose.
https://twitter.com/CColose/status/1490389202890014722
McKay's tweet was definitely hyperbolic.
But interestingly, it wasn't that different from the argument Biden made last fall.
nytimes.com/2021/09/14/us/…
But interestingly, it wasn't that different from the argument Biden made last fall.
nytimes.com/2021/09/14/us/…
So clearly there's something going on with this whole 6-12 year thing.
It just needs a bit more nuance.
Let's unpack it with some data and try to get into some of the nuance @GhostPanther's tweet was missing.
It just needs a bit more nuance.
Let's unpack it with some data and try to get into some of the nuance @GhostPanther's tweet was missing.
Last year, all the people, corporations, and cow burps in the world emitted about 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
In order to prevent catastrophic climate change, we need to get that number to zero.
But the timing of when we get there, matters a lot.
Imagine two different paths forward:
But the timing of when we get there, matters a lot.
Imagine two different paths forward:
Scenario #1
We all get our act together and start cutting emissions at the pace of 2 billion tons every year for the next 30 years.
In this scenario, we reach zero emissions in 2047.
We all get our act together and start cutting emissions at the pace of 2 billion tons every year for the next 30 years.
In this scenario, we reach zero emissions in 2047.
Scenario #2
We drag our feet for the next decade and then start cutting carbon emissions at the same pace of two billion tons per year.
In this scenario, we reach zero emissions by 2056.
We drag our feet for the next decade and then start cutting carbon emissions at the same pace of two billion tons per year.
In this scenario, we reach zero emissions by 2056.
At first glance these scenarios might not seem that different.
Who cares if we reach zero emissions in 2047 or 2056?
Both are pretty close to the 2050 timeline that is so commonly referenced.
Who cares if we reach zero emissions in 2047 or 2056?
Both are pretty close to the 2050 timeline that is so commonly referenced.
But when measuring climate change, annual emissions are much less important than cumulative emissions.
The *total* amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is what really matters.
And this is where the two scenarios diverge drastically.
The *total* amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is what really matters.
And this is where the two scenarios diverge drastically.
Despite only a decade of delay, the slow scenario results in almost twice as many cumulative emissions over the next three decades than the faster scenario.
In absolute terms, that’s a difference of 450 billion tons of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
In absolute terms, that’s a difference of 450 billion tons of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
So how much is 450 billion tons? Let’s put that number in context.
Between 1850 and today humans have pumped about 2.5 trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
That means 450 billion is about 20% of all the emissions we’ve ever put in the atmosphere.
Between 1850 and today humans have pumped about 2.5 trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
That means 450 billion is about 20% of all the emissions we’ve ever put in the atmosphere.
According to the latest IPCC report, if we want to stay below 1.5 degrees, we can only emit another 570 to 770 billion tons in total.
If we want to stay below 2 degrees we can only emit between 1320 and 1690 billion tons.
If we want to stay below 2 degrees we can only emit between 1320 and 1690 billion tons.
A decade of delay will likely mean the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees.
So that's what people mean when they say "We have 10 years to prevent catastrophic climate change."
So that's what people mean when they say "We have 10 years to prevent catastrophic climate change."
Now you might be thinking, "Really? We're all fretting about 0.5 degrees?"
But in climate science, 0.5 degrees is a huge difference.
But in climate science, 0.5 degrees is a huge difference.
It's the difference between the Antarctic ice sheet collapsing or staying in tact.
It’s the difference between hundreds of millions of more people living in areas of frequent heat waves, poverty, and extreme droughts.
It’s the difference between hundreds of millions of more people living in areas of frequent heat waves, poverty, and extreme droughts.
It’s almost certainly the difference between a world with coral reefs and one without.
In short, it's a difference worth fighting for.
In short, it's a difference worth fighting for.
The task ahead of us, if we want to avoid that future, is daunting. But it’s not impossible.
Many of the solutions we need have already been invented.
Many of the solutions we need have already been invented.
With more funding, policy change, and people working on this problem, we can deploy those technologies at mass-scale and invent the remaining solutions that we need.
One thing is clear though: Time is not our friend.
We need everyone doing everything they can as soon as possible.
Nothing else is sufficient.
We need everyone doing everything they can as soon as possible.
Nothing else is sufficient.
Alright, that's all for now! I hope that was helpful.
Please consider retweeting this thread to get the word out that we need to act fast!
Please consider retweeting this thread to get the word out that we need to act fast!
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