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Feb 13 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
As the US warns of an impending Russian offensive into Ukraine, elements of yet another Russian army are moving dangerously close to the border.

This time, it's the 1st Guards Tank Army — and it's moving in more reinforcements from its home bases, too.
This is one of the many videos filmed in Maslovka near Voronezh. It shows distinctive T-80U tanks of the 4th Guards Tank Division (part of the 1st GTA).

You can see an empty low-loader leaving the area, suggesting vehicles are being brought in.

We first saw 1st Guards Tank Army vehicles near Voronezh late last year.
citeam.org/russian-troops…

They replaced elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army from Siberia, which came to Western Russia in April last year and are also now moving to the border.
The 4th GTD's T-80U tanks were spotted on two more trains, geolocated by @danvan71 at Belgorod and Veselaya Lopan (15 km from the Ukrainian border, where heavy 2S7 artillery systems were also spotted recently).



@danvan71 While we initially assumed those trains moved in from Voronezh, railcar tracking data suggests they in fact arrived from stations near the 4th GTD base west of Moscow, suggesting even more vehicles are being brought in.
Yet another train with reinforcements apparently came from Krasny Bor, Smolensk region, the home base of the 1st GTA's 49th Anti-Air Missile Brigade.



We've observed that unit's Buk missile launchers near Voronezh last year.
The 1st GTA's redeployment is yet another element in what increasingly looks like preparations to a large-scale ground operation against Ukraine.

We expect all currently observable pieces to be in place in the coming days, and will continue monitoring the situation closely,

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CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 6
Russian military watchers have recently noted that a massive camp in Yelnya, Smolensk region, has nearly emptied.

We believe these vehicles have moved to Bryansk region to the south, to areas just dozens of kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Here is why (thread):
These vehicles belong to the 41st Army of the Central Military District (CMD), transferred to Voronezh in Western Russia from Siberia back in April 2021 and then shifted to Yelnya later that year, as we've extensively covered here:

citeam.org/ru-military-ca…
citeam.org/russian-troops…
CMD vehicles have "87" and "76" codes on theire number plates.

Those codes can be seen in a @FranceTVEurope clip filmed in Klintsy and Klimovo in Bryansk region, as well as in a TikTok video of a Russian military convoy heading south through Smolensk region.
Read 8 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 3
In a new development to our yesterday's warnings on Russia's national guard and possibly riot police redeployment, we and other researchers have observed one of those units stationed close to Ukraine, as well as Chechen Rosgvardia convoys moving northwest
In a social media group for the town of Rossosh (Voronezh region, 40 km from Ukraine), a video was posted showing a large Rosgvardia convoy, alleging that the personnel was stationed at a local vocational school. We geolocated a video of soldiers to the area of said school. ImageImage
Even more worryingly, a TikTok video and a photo from our source shows convoys of two different Chechen Rosgvardia units.

They are de facto part of brutal warlord Ramzan Kadyrov's personal army, and, should they go into Ukraine, would be even less accountable in their conduct. Image
Read 4 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 2
In a worrying development, we and other researchers have observed vehicles characteristic of Russia's National Guard Troops and possibly riot police (both part of the same umbrella organization "Rosgvardia") moving on roads and trains across European Russia.
This video, likely filmed in Konosha, south of Arkhangelsk, shows a train with BTR-80 APCs, Ural-VV and Zvezda-V armored trucks and a Rosgvardia Traffic Police vehicle.

Railcar tracking data suggests the train is going south from Arkhangelsk.
In another video, filmed in Tula, you can see another Zvezda-V armored truck and several gray trucks with red stripes and grated windows, intended to transport personnel and detainees, which you may remember from videos of protests in Russia.
Read 11 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 17
Today @MotolkoHelp posted photographs and a video of a train carrying Russian military vehicles, reportedly filmed near Minsk, Belarus.

According to railcar trackers, the train comes from Ruzhino station in Russia's Far East.



@MotolkoHelp The closest unit to Ruzhino station is 16th Radiation, Biological and Chemical Defence Brigade of the Eastern Military District based in Lesozavodsk.

One of the vehicles seen on the train matches an RHM-6 Chemical Reconnaissance Vehicle.
@MotolkoHelp In a recent comment on TikTok, a woman writes that her soldier son recently left Lesozavodsk with his unit's vehicles, having signed a "paper" (possibly a none-disclosure agreement).

Many other comments left by soldiers and their acquaintances mention deployment to Belarus.
Read 4 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 15
Recently we and other researchers have observed videos with what we believe are launchers and other vehicles of Iskander-M operational and tactical missile systems, moving west on trains across Russia, some as far west as the Urals. ImageImageImage
Railcar tracking data tells us that trains carrying Iskander-M elements originate from at least two points: Ulan-Ude and Birobidzhan, close to the bases of Iskander-armed 103rd and 107th Missile Brigades, respectively.

TikTok comments also mention 107th Brigade on the move. Image
Iskander-M brigades are army-level assets, which suggests that the westward movements from all four armies the Western Military District that we have observed earlier involve significant elements of those armies, not just separate battalion tactical groups
Read 6 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 12
In the past week, we and other researchers have noticed videos on social media showing military vehicles on trains in Russia's Far East, moving West.

Trucks, tanks IFVs and MLRS can be seen on the flatbed railcars. Eyewitnesses report several trains per week or even per day.
Russia's security services take steps to hide those trains from open databases, but indirect data points to departure from the bases of all four armies of Russia's Eastern Military District.

Some trains are already seen further west than the EMD, suggesting unusual redeployment.
Given that Russia's paratroopers are soon to leave Kazakhstan, the only other likely destination is near Ukraine, where they'd join other Russian units already there.

Videos filmed from the trains themselves suggest at least some personnel is moving with the vehicles.
Read 5 tweets

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