Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

On 9 February @faznet published a letter from Dr Ernst-Jörg von Studnitz, former German ambassador in Moscow, former Chair of the German-Russian Forum, about protecting Ukraine’s security.

I recommend it to all, & have prepared an English translation, reproduced in this 🧵/1.

The Importance of Protecting Ukraine

Widespread concern about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine raises the question of whether repeated Russian assurances that a military incursion is not intended should in fact be accepted. /2.

Russian military calculations regarding an intervention in Ukraine may well be going in a different direction.

There are historical examples which can be a guide to such military action. /3.

Worthy of note are the Soviet interventions in Czechoslovakia in 1968 and in Afghanistan in 1979. In both cases, Soviet power was called upon by a clique previously placed in power by the Soviets to help secure overthrow in their country. /4.

Soviet politicians then, as possibly Russian politicians today, can claim they did not commit aggression against a neighbouring country, but only rushed to the aid of a government in need, as they did recently in Kazakhstan. /5.

As Putin seems to be implying, the call for help can be provoked using military-technical means. /6.

What chaos would ensue in Ukraine if, with a massive preceding cyber attack, which cannot of course be attributed to the Russian government, all communication in the country were to be paralysed. /7.

In this confusion, the required call for help to the Russian neighbours would be issued from obscure sources. And Russia stands ready to invade with overwhelming military force all around Ukraine. /8.

The Soviet army had such a deployment pattern before the invasion of Czechoslovakia. Armies were available in East Germany, Poland, Ukraine and Hungary. They were all sent in. That is why the Russian armed forces are deployed today. /9.

What's more, before the invasion of Czechoslovakia, all the troops eventually deployed had been on manoeuvres for months previously. How similar the pictures appear, when you look at the situation in respect of Ukraine today. /10.

The danger is a staged putsch, not an invasion which could be directly defined as “aggression”.

This raises the question of how both Ukraine and the West should react to this possible scenario. /11.

It is of utmost importance to fend off a massive cyber attack with all possible means. On this, even Germany, which is so incredibly reluctant to provide military support, can provide the greatest possible help. /12.

The preparations for this must start immediately and they do not conflict with any NATO commitments not to expand its potential eastward. /13.

It is of similar importance that the diplomatic missions of Western states in Ukraine are operating at full capacity so that the course of events can be closely followed. The announced withdrawal of diplomatic personnel from Kyiv sends absolutely the wrong signal. /13.

Protecting Ukraine from a repeat of Soviet interventions in support of purported Russian security interests is of overriding significance, for maintaining the peaceful order established in Europe in the second half of the 20th century.

Dr Ernst-Jörg von Studnitz /14. End

P.S. If you’ve read this far, you may also be interested in this related 🧵 from a year ago, which is of current relevance👇

https://twitter.com/AndrewPRLevi/status/1388094476619554818

P.P.S. Numbering correction: the last two numbered tweets should be 14 & 15, respectively. Sorry.