Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 16 19 tweets 12 min read
#ExtremeWeather Update Thread: Madagascar #Invest96S

The JTWC is now saying there is a "High" probability of #Invest96S will become a TC within the next 24 hours.

The JTWC @USNavy @USNRL website [Here: metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html] remains inaccessible.
@USNavy @USNRL While we do not have a JTWC track forecast yet, we do have a new forecast. the relevant part for #96s is in the 2nd image here and contains reasoning as to why:

"THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."
Here's a current 24h animation of the storm, at the end you see the center of circulation is fully exposed. The storm is moving fairly fast and is being blown westwards by winds which are creating a lot of shear - which prevents development.
This 6hr animation shows the exposed area of circulation more clearly. The storm is moving West at around 8 knots.

Overnight there was a lot of convection, the storm developed a long tail feature, which is holding it back. A repeat of last night.
Yesterday the tail's moisture collapsed spectacularly back into the main area of circulation, it will be interesting to see if this happens again.
The main challenge the storm has at the moment is shear which is increasing. To my untrained eye this graphic overlay from CMISS suggests that there might still be two areas of circulation here - one exposed, one not. But moments later the shear map overlay has changed.
This graphic overlay provides a far more easy to understand picture of what is happening.

The coloured blobs are water vapour, and indeed it is moving from the tail into the eye, also outwards as outflow. Most usefully we have a guide to the center of rotation.
Here's the full legend for the image above:

Overlay Products
- Latitude/Longitude
- Invest Position
20220216/0600UTC
(source:JTWC)
- CIMSS Env Steering Product
500-850hPa layer
for TC MSLP range 990-999hPa
Valid:20220216/0600UTC
Finally here's another more traditional animation from CMISS of this which shows the roughly the same features, albeit not quite as clearly.
These two images read together graphically show why the storm is expected to strengthen. The track here is from cyclocane.com/5-storm-tracke… and shows the RMSC forecast track from @MeteoFrance La Reunion (the island you can see south of the final track point.
According to the latest track forecast (2nd image contains the coordinates - helpfully plotted automatically by Cyclocane cyclocane.com/5-storm-tracke…)

You can see that the storm is expected to move South West into a lower shear environment - where it is expected to strengthen.
"THE FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF WIND SHEAR, GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AN EXCELLENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL... SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION... POTENTIALLY UP TO THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS WEEKEND."
So in conclusion: By the weekend there is a "High Probability" Tropical Disturbance 5/a.k.a #Invest963 will become a Tropical Cyclone. The current track suggests it will be located north of La Reunion - but this may change.
Tropical Storm forecasts are limited to 5 days as beyond 3 days accuracy of track/intensity forecasts statistically falls steeply. But "numerical models" are running continuous simulations and these provide a guide beyond that.

One public source is >> cyclocane.com/5-spaghetti-mo…
[Disclaimer: All predictions of what may happen beyond 3 days are subject to likely change.]

At this stage the models are forecasting landfall on Tuesday 22nd Feb. The storm's path looks like it will be very similar to #Batsirai and at similar intensity.
The latest GFS simulation shows extreme rainfall at rates of around 20mm per hour. Cyclone force winds up to 160kmh are forecast to cause storm surge and coastal inundation. Wind and rain will be capable of destroying buildings already damaged by #batsiraicyclone
And total forecast rainfalls could cause floods similar to #Batsirai in the same places.

The latest ECMWF and GFS models are in broad agreement at present.
And for these reasons preparations for worst case scenarios are warranted. Even though the storm has not formed, and its track may be significantly different than forecast.

Prayers are indicated.
/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Feb 17
The full UN meeting can be watched here >> media.un.org/en/asset/k12/k…

Beginning with an excellent briefing from @UN USG (Under Sec Gen) for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs.

The subject of the meeting is Minsk Agreements, which have failed to bring peace over the past 7 yrs. Image
The second briefing is from two representatives of the OSCE - the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe - which is responsible for monitoring the Minsk Agreements.

Both briefers lament the absence of implementation of the Minsk Agreements. Image
Both briefers discuss the reasons for the failure to of the Minsk Agreements to be fully implemented. But they both also point towards there being less conflict over the past year.

And both thank the efforts by Germany and France to restart the Normandy 4 format talks.
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Feb 17
The problem is that @SecBlinken thinks his playing to his choir is clever. It’s not. It just looks daft.

Of course Russia will give this commitment to the UNSC. It has done so repeatedly already,

Most of world, especially the Govt. of Ukraine is getting tired of this circus.
This meeting to discuss a letter from Moscow r.e. Ukraine has been on the UNSC agenda since end of Jan. Russia is the current UNSC president.
This is one of the main reasons that all the talk from the US about “imminent invasion” has been so dumb. Russia signaled its willingness to take a diplomatic path in scheduling this meeting. Announcing it the Russian PR made clear Russia did not intend to invade.
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#ExtremeWeather #Warning #SouthEastAfrica

With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.

Latest GFS 10 day rain sim below.
While Tropical Storm #Dumako has lost its JTWC designation the threat it poses to Mozambique is not over - we just won't have the same level of data to watch it as it crosses the Mozambique Channel.

The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen. Image
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Read 12 tweets
Feb 17
#ExtremeWeather TS #Emnati Update:

After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
And the good news is that JTWC - [metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html… website seems to be back online. They were missed. Here is the latest official track forecast issued by JTWC Pearl Harbour this morning at 3:00Z (UTC). This storm can now be considered to be a major threat to Madagascar. Image
The forecast track is almost identical to that of #Batsirai, which has left over 120 Malagasy dead, destroyed and damaged 10s of thousands of homes and buildings. Flooded areas have not even drained yet.
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Feb 17
Hi @MarksSimon, @Bloomberg, we have known this for literally seven months but you personally and the publications you have worked for @nytimes and @Bloomberg consistently ignored these facts. Even @AP started reporting on the atrocities in Sept.

You now need to explain why?
Why were reporters in Kenya like yourself and @declanwalsh, and your editors in NY, DC and London so unwilling to dig deeper and ask the question why is it that there is a 2nd completely different narrative to this conflict?
Why did so many Western publications - because nearly every notable publication and Agency in the US UK and EU did this - suspend your critical thinking and take a course of action which almost certainly prolonged this war and the killing and the horror?
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Feb 16
Yesterday afternoon there was a Plenary session in the European Parliament on the eve of @AUEUSummit, scheduled for tomorrow and Friday. This tweet contains some edited highlights from High Representative @JosepBorrellF (who leads @eu_eeas).

But this misses a lot.

Thread....
The full video of Borrell's opening remarks is here >> multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/video/eu-afric…

11 minutes, in English. The remarks kick off a debate that included 42 speakers and concluded with some closing remarks from @JosepBorrellF.
The full video of the high representative's Plenary session begins at 15.13pm and can be watched here. The interventions of the 42 MEPs (Members of the European Parliament) from 15:22 are all short, limited to less than 2 minutes by procedure. multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/video/eu-afric… Image
Read 26 tweets

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