Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 17 12 tweets 8 min read
#ExtremeWeather #Warning #SouthEastAfrica

With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.

Latest GFS 10 day rain sim below.
While Tropical Storm #Dumako has lost its JTWC designation the threat it poses to Mozambique is not over - we just won't have the same level of data to watch it as it crosses the Mozambique Channel.

The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen.
However in the rainfall forecast we can see that heavy rain is forecast for Southern Mozambique and across the the continent over the next 10 days. This animation is from earlier today before #Dumako was taken off the monitoring list.
Fortunately we have satellite imagery which shows what has happened since.
Zooming in we can see what Disturbance #Dumako is now up to. It appears to still be rotating - moving south fairly slowly and is producing convection.

#StormAna lingered over the Mozambique Channel and strengthened before moving inland. So possibly worth keeping an eye on.
From the ECMWC Spaghetti chart we can see what it was expected to do - and disturbance #Dumako doesn't seem to be doing that.
We can also look at what the latest models think is going to happen. The path of #Emnati is very similar to that of #Batsirai was at this stage in its development. It's track later moved to take it due south following landfall.
And we can also look at the PWAT (Precipitable Water /Energy) forecasts which I find helpful when it comes to answering the question "Why" in relation to these #extremeweather rain phenomena.
The answer is that center of the South Indian Ocean is awash with moisture. The south Atlantic is also a cauldron of aerial moisture exchange between the Amazon and the West African Monsoons.
This year though the South Indian Ocean has been far and away the most busy. The long range PWAT forecasts have looked like this pretty much continuously since early January.

In the Northern Hemisphere summer a similar situation arose in the West Pacific with #INFA.
For further inquiry into #OurChangingClimate and #ExtremeWeather you can look at the West Pacific events last year in a series threads which you will find here >> twitter.com/search?q=%40al…
The Pacific is a bigger Ocean and that situation was substantially worse and its impact on China was devastating.

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More from @althecat

Feb 19
#ExtremeWeather #Emnati #TCEmnati Update:

Recent @NOAA GFS simulation model runs for #Emnati are continuing to show the storm turning towards the south as it is north of Reunion island which would mitigate the worst threats to #Madagscar.

Impact comment from RMSC/@meteofrance ImageImage
The model guidance though is unclear (image below shows latest @ECMWF model landfall solution). The numerical model guidance is discussed from the same @meteofrance advisory issued at midnight.

The official track still shows catastrophic landfall in #Batsirai affected areas. ImageImageImage
@ECMWF @meteofrance Spaghetti ensemble runs below for GEFS (L) and EPS (R) (right).] These show the current trajectory disagreement clearly.

[HT to @WxNB_ : ]
As he says an improved impact outcome for Madagascar will likely mean a worse result for La Reunion. ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Feb 18
Last night’s briefing below from @UN_Spokesperson @StephDujarric addressed this. It was another opportunity to address the actual crisis - caused by TPLF attacks in Afar - and call for the TPLF to withdraw.

But this did not happen. Again.

The humanitarian situation in Ethiopia and Tigray cannot be resolved whilst TPLF persists in its attacks.

And TPLF will not stop its attacks whilst its IC enablers continue to provide it with media support, silence is support.
When @amnesty issued reports about alleged atrocities committed by Ethiopian troops and militias UN leaders loudly spoke about these…

Amnesty has finally acknowledged more of the scale of TPLF violence in its occupation of Amhara. And we have silence.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
The full UN meeting can be watched here >> media.un.org/en/asset/k12/k…

Beginning with an excellent briefing from @UN USG (Under Sec Gen) for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs.

The subject of the meeting is Minsk Agreements, which have failed to bring peace over the past 7 yrs. Image
The second briefing is from two representatives of the OSCE - the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe - which is responsible for monitoring the Minsk Agreements.

Both briefers lament the absence of implementation of the Minsk Agreements. Image
Both briefers discuss the reasons for the failure to of the Minsk Agreements to be fully implemented. But they both also point towards there being less conflict over the past year.

And both thank the efforts by Germany and France to restart the Normandy 4 format talks.
Read 78 tweets
Feb 17
The problem is that @SecBlinken thinks his playing to his choir is clever. It’s not. It just looks daft.

Of course Russia will give this commitment to the UNSC. It has done so repeatedly already,

Most of world, especially the Govt. of Ukraine is getting tired of this circus.
This meeting to discuss a letter from Moscow r.e. Ukraine has been on the UNSC agenda since end of Jan. Russia is the current UNSC president.
This is one of the main reasons that all the talk from the US about “imminent invasion” has been so dumb. Russia signaled its willingness to take a diplomatic path in scheduling this meeting. Announcing it the Russian PR made clear Russia did not intend to invade.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 17
#ExtremeWeather TS #Emnati Update:

After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
And the good news is that JTWC - [metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html… website seems to be back online. They were missed. Here is the latest official track forecast issued by JTWC Pearl Harbour this morning at 3:00Z (UTC). This storm can now be considered to be a major threat to Madagascar.
The forecast track is almost identical to that of #Batsirai, which has left over 120 Malagasy dead, destroyed and damaged 10s of thousands of homes and buildings. Flooded areas have not even drained yet.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 17
Hi @MarksSimon, @Bloomberg, we have known this for literally seven months but you personally and the publications you have worked for @nytimes and @bloomberg consistently ignored these facts. Even @ap started reporting on the atrocities in Sept.

You now need to explain why?
Why were reporters in Kenya like yourself and @declanwalsh, and your editors in NY, DC and London so unwilling to dig deeper and ask the question why is it that there is a 2nd completely different narrative to this conflict?
Why did so many Western publications - because nearly every notable publication and Agency in the US UK and EU did this - suspend your critical thinking and take a course of action which almost certainly prolonged this war and the killing and the horror?
Read 7 tweets

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