Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 17 14 tweets 3 min read
The problem is that @secblinken thinks his playing to his choir is clever. It’s not. It just looks daft.

Of course Russia will give this commitment to the UNSC. It has done so repeatedly already,

Most of world, especially the Govt. of Ukraine is getting tired of this circus.
This meeting to discuss a letter from Moscow r.e. Ukraine has been on the UNSC agenda since end of Jan. Russia is the current UNSC president.
This is one of the main reasons that all the talk from the US about “imminent invasion” has been so dumb. Russia signaled its willingness to take a diplomatic path in scheduling this meeting. Announcing it the Russian PR made clear Russia did not intend to invade.
The reason that Russian TV shows are laughing at the US and suggesting it’s leading figures might be mentally challenged is because they are making it so easy.
Apparently we are supposed to believe today that Russia has shown its intentions to invade Ukraine by “building a bridge” and a road. And believe that the US has an accurate head count of deployed soldiers along frontiers that are over 1000kms long.
The strategy to look tough to keep Europe on side and claim credit when Russia doesn’t invade might have made sense if better executed,

But right now most of us are just sick of this nonsense. Putin’s and Biden’s.
Just come to an agreement. Both leave Ukraine alone, and stop scaring us with talk about nuclear weapons and WWIII.

Enough already.
The UKs James Cleverly Minister of State for Europe and North America also turned up in NYC to speak at this meeting. Here is his post speaking standup with reporters >> media.un.org/en/asset/k12/k…
Maintaining and strengthening the "special relationship" with the US is now the UK's primary diplomatic objective, it being the UK's main path to remaining internationally relevant.
The UNSC meeting on Ukraine has ended. The last speaker - from Ukraine - said that many people had written to him urging him to say that "no-one in Ukraine" thinks that Ukraine is about to be invaded.

Video of the full meeting can be watched here >> media.un.org/en/asset/k12/k…
This entire Russian charade was an info op with 3 objectives.

1. Get Europe to seriously discuss alternatives to "Just NATO" to provide strategic security on its Eastern Borders.
2. Intimidate Ukraine into resuming Minsk talks.
3. Put some cracks in NATO.

All 3 achieved.
The three protagonists in this drama - the UK Govt, US Govt and Putin's Kremlin - have all been playing to their domestic audiences.

And its ironic the language all three nuclear powers appear most comfortable with are different dialects of jingoism.
But its tragic that the UK and US Govt's appear to be completely blind to the fact that they have been played. Like a violin.
A couple of days ago a former UK Spy chief was on the Today Show saying that it was obvious that there was never going to be a war, as there was so much for Russia to lose.

This followed the UK Defence Sec. refering to the Crisis as having a "whiff (smell) of Munich".

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More from @althecat

Feb 19
#ExtremeWeather #Emnati #TCEmnati Update:

Recent @NOAA GFS simulation model runs for #Emnati are continuing to show the storm turning towards the south as it is north of Reunion island which would mitigate the worst threats to #Madagscar.

Impact comment from RMSC/@meteofrance ImageImage
The model guidance though is unclear (image below shows latest @ECMWF model landfall solution). The numerical model guidance is discussed from the same @meteofrance advisory issued at midnight.

The official track still shows catastrophic landfall in #Batsirai affected areas. ImageImageImage
@ECMWF @meteofrance Spaghetti ensemble runs below for GEFS (L) and EPS (R) (right).] These show the current trajectory disagreement clearly.

[HT to @WxNB_ : ]
As he says an improved impact outcome for Madagascar will likely mean a worse result for La Reunion. ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Feb 18
Last night’s briefing below from @UN_Spokesperson @StephDujarric addressed this. It was another opportunity to address the actual crisis - caused by TPLF attacks in Afar - and call for the TPLF to withdraw.

But this did not happen. Again.

The humanitarian situation in Ethiopia and Tigray cannot be resolved whilst TPLF persists in its attacks.

And TPLF will not stop its attacks whilst its IC enablers continue to provide it with media support, silence is support.
When @amnesty issued reports about alleged atrocities committed by Ethiopian troops and militias UN leaders loudly spoke about these…

Amnesty has finally acknowledged more of the scale of TPLF violence in its occupation of Amhara. And we have silence.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
The full UN meeting can be watched here >> media.un.org/en/asset/k12/k…

Beginning with an excellent briefing from @UN USG (Under Sec Gen) for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs.

The subject of the meeting is Minsk Agreements, which have failed to bring peace over the past 7 yrs. Image
The second briefing is from two representatives of the OSCE - the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe - which is responsible for monitoring the Minsk Agreements.

Both briefers lament the absence of implementation of the Minsk Agreements. Image
Both briefers discuss the reasons for the failure to of the Minsk Agreements to be fully implemented. But they both also point towards there being less conflict over the past year.

And both thank the efforts by Germany and France to restart the Normandy 4 format talks.
Read 78 tweets
Feb 17
#ExtremeWeather #Warning #SouthEastAfrica

With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.

Latest GFS 10 day rain sim below.
While Tropical Storm #Dumako has lost its JTWC designation the threat it poses to Mozambique is not over - we just won't have the same level of data to watch it as it crosses the Mozambique Channel.

The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen.
However in the rainfall forecast we can see that heavy rain is forecast for Southern Mozambique and across the the continent over the next 10 days. This animation is from earlier today before #Dumako was taken off the monitoring list.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 17
#ExtremeWeather TS #Emnati Update:

After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
And the good news is that JTWC - [metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html… website seems to be back online. They were missed. Here is the latest official track forecast issued by JTWC Pearl Harbour this morning at 3:00Z (UTC). This storm can now be considered to be a major threat to Madagascar.
The forecast track is almost identical to that of #Batsirai, which has left over 120 Malagasy dead, destroyed and damaged 10s of thousands of homes and buildings. Flooded areas have not even drained yet.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 17
Hi @MarksSimon, @Bloomberg, we have known this for literally seven months but you personally and the publications you have worked for @nytimes and @bloomberg consistently ignored these facts. Even @ap started reporting on the atrocities in Sept.

You now need to explain why?
Why were reporters in Kenya like yourself and @declanwalsh, and your editors in NY, DC and London so unwilling to dig deeper and ask the question why is it that there is a 2nd completely different narrative to this conflict?
Why did so many Western publications - because nearly every notable publication and Agency in the US UK and EU did this - suspend your critical thinking and take a course of action which almost certainly prolonged this war and the killing and the horror?
Read 7 tweets

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