Recent @NOAA GFS simulation model runs for #Emnati are continuing to show the storm turning towards the south as it is north of Reunion island which would mitigate the worst threats to #Madagscar.
The model guidance though is unclear (image below shows latest @ECMWF model landfall solution). The numerical model guidance is discussed from the same @MeteoFrance advisory issued at midnight.
The official track still shows catastrophic landfall in #Batsirai affected areas.
@ECMWF@meteofrance Spaghetti ensemble runs below for GEFS (L) and EPS (R) (right).] These show the current trajectory disagreement clearly.
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As he says an improved impact outcome for Madagascar will likely mean a worse result for La Reunion.
While the JTWC is once again inaccessible. Here is the latest 3am UTC forecast update for #Emnati#TCEmnati [Via @eggwardjwx an helpful account which provides an automated WX data feed which is worth a follow]
The JTWC update is based on microwave data - which was not available to RSMC.
This track chart "Global + Hurricane Models" shows the current "numerical" model divergence issue very clearly.
To add to the confusion there is a third model map here which shows a significantly more northerly landfall on Madagascar. All of which explains why the JTWC is so important in this global forecasting effort.
The "Forecast reasoning" is always the most interesting part of JTWC's regular product output - and here the advisory is stark - track forecast confidence beyond 72 hours is now "Low" due to an "exponential" split in model guidance for #Emnati illustrated in the 3 charts above.
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Last night’s briefing below from @UN_Spokesperson@StephDujarric addressed this. It was another opportunity to address the actual crisis - caused by TPLF attacks in Afar - and call for the TPLF to withdraw.
The second briefing is from two representatives of the OSCE - the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe - which is responsible for monitoring the Minsk Agreements.
Both briefers lament the absence of implementation of the Minsk Agreements.
Both briefers discuss the reasons for the failure to of the Minsk Agreements to be fully implemented. But they both also point towards there being less conflict over the past year.
And both thank the efforts by Germany and France to restart the Normandy 4 format talks.
This meeting to discuss a letter from Moscow r.e. Ukraine has been on the UNSC agenda since end of Jan. Russia is the current UNSC president.
This is one of the main reasons that all the talk from the US about “imminent invasion” has been so dumb. Russia signaled its willingness to take a diplomatic path in scheduling this meeting. Announcing it the Russian PR made clear Russia did not intend to invade.
With formation of Tropical Storm #Emnati overnight and a high confidence forecast for the next five days. We need to also pay attention to potential impacts in Southern Africa, especially in the East.
While Tropical Storm #Dumako has lost its JTWC designation the threat it poses to Mozambique is not over - we just won't have the same level of data to watch it as it crosses the Mozambique Channel.
The current spaghetti analysis from ECMWF suggests it won't strengthen.
However in the rainfall forecast we can see that heavy rain is forecast for Southern Mozambique and across the the continent over the next 10 days. This animation is from earlier today before #Dumako was taken off the monitoring list.
After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s#Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
And the good news is that JTWC - [metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html… website seems to be back online. They were missed. Here is the latest official track forecast issued by JTWC Pearl Harbour this morning at 3:00Z (UTC). This storm can now be considered to be a major threat to Madagascar.
The forecast track is almost identical to that of #Batsirai, which has left over 120 Malagasy dead, destroyed and damaged 10s of thousands of homes and buildings. Flooded areas have not even drained yet.
Hi @MarksSimon, @Bloomberg, we have known this for literally seven months but you personally and the publications you have worked for @nytimes and @bloomberg consistently ignored these facts. Even @ap started reporting on the atrocities in Sept.
Why were reporters in Kenya like yourself and @declanwalsh, and your editors in NY, DC and London so unwilling to dig deeper and ask the question why is it that there is a 2nd completely different narrative to this conflict?
Why did so many Western publications - because nearly every notable publication and Agency in the US UK and EU did this - suspend your critical thinking and take a course of action which almost certainly prolonged this war and the killing and the horror?